ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:01 am

AL, 97, 2021062912, , BEST, 0, 80N, 348W, 25, 1009, DB,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
Last edited by SFLcane on Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Invest 97L

#2 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:01 am

What happened to the other thread?
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Re: Invest 97L

#3 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:02 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:What happened to the other thread?


It’s was incorrect had a pressure of 1000mb lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:05 am

Was not official yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#5 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:06 am

We locked the other thread until it showed up officially in best track.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#6 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:07 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#7 Postby tolakram » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:10 am

For starting new invest threads we want to see sources, a link for example. We have to be able to confirm an invest is active before allowing a thread to start.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#8 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:11 am

TD probs almost at 90 percent from euro ensemble.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:15 am

SFLCane, I added the link to ATCF at your first post to have the source to the best track.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#10 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:19 am

cycloneye wrote:SFLCane, I added the link to ATCF at your first post to have the source to the best track.


Yep, was about to add it. Thanks!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#11 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:25 am

Who determines what systems are invests, and where do you find best track data for these systems?

Edit: Never mind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#12 Postby tolakram » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:27 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:Who determines what systems are invests, and where do you find best track data for these systems?


A link was added to the first post. Basically refreshing the FTP site looking for an invest to pop up. Very high tech.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#13 Postby Kazmit » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:27 am

The second MDR invest this June, and this one looks way more likely to develop. Just wait until two months from now...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#14 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:36 am

Kazmit wrote:The second MDR invest this June, and this one looks way more likely to develop. Just wait until two months from now...

*Third
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#15 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:40 am

This is of no surprise to anyone I would think..

New ASCAT

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#16 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:53 am

Aric Dunn wrote:This is of no surprise to anyone I would think..

New ASCAT

https://i.ibb.co/JQy8pjm/Capture.png


If it doesn't re-fire convection the GFS isn't gonna be right at least not short-term.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#17 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:54 am

Aric Dunn wrote:This is of no surprise to anyone I would think..

New ASCAT

https://i.ibb.co/JQy8pjm/Capture.png

A pretty good starting point. It needs to continuously fire convection so that rather broad and elliptical circulation can tighten up. If it does, maybe we might have a TC within 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#18 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:59 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#19 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Jun 29, 2021 9:03 am

97L will be benefiting from a pretty big CCKW spike.

Dennis in 2005 formed in similar circumstances to 97L, so early-July Caribbean crusaders aren't unprecedented with CCKW wave like this. Bears close watching.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#20 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 29, 2021 9:13 am

97L's much further southerly track should help it to stay away from the SAL to its north and have much better chances for development than 95L.

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