ATL: ELSA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA JUST WEST OF KEY WEST...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 82.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida
* Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 82.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn
toward the north by tonight. A north-northeastward motion is
expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to
pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over
portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight.
On Wednesday morning, Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the
north Florida Gulf coast and then move northeastward across the
southeastern United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa
could be near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in
Florida. Weakening is expected after Elsa moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. A C-MAN station at Sand Key, Florida, recently
measured a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h). The Key West
International Airport also recently measured a wind gust of 48 mph
(77 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
central and western Cuba during the next several hours. Tropical
storm conditions are beginning in the warning area in the Florida
Keys and are expected along the Florida west coast later today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into
west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region tonight and
early Wednesday, where hurricane conditions are possible. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
late tonight and in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and
early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across
the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WEST-CENTRAL
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 82.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for Cuba.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle
from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida, has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 82.8 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a
generally northward motion is expected today and tonight. A turn
toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a
faster northeastward by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will continue to pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move
near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today
through tonight. On Wednesday morning, Elsa is forecast to make
landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast and then move
across the southeastern United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa could be
near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in Florida.
Weakening is expected after Elsa moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. A C-MAN station at Sand Key, Florida, recently
measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) gusting
to 64 mph (104 km/h). The Key West International Airport also
recently measured a peak sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) gusting
to 59 mph (95 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central
Florida and the Florida Big Bend region tonight and early Wednesday,
where hurricane conditions are possible. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina
Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding..

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across
the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown/Papin




Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

Elsa's overall cloud pattern has changed little in organization
since earlier today. There continues to be minimal shower and
thunderstorm activity over the western semicircle of the
circulation, with some bursting of deep convection near and east of
the estimated center. A slightly-elevated observing site on Sand
Key, near Key West Florida, recently reported a peak 1-minute wind
of 49 kt with a gust to 56 kt. This supports the current intensity
estimate of 50 kt. Recent WSR-88D Doppler velocities from the Key
West radar suggest that the storm could be a little stronger than
that. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into the storm has
been delayed due to bad weather at the Keesler base, but is
rescheduled to investigate Elsa in a few hours. This flight should
provide updated information on the intensity of the system.

Recently, the storm has been moving a little slower toward the
north-northwest and the initial motion is about 340/9 kt. Elsa
should move generally northward today and tonight between the
western periphery of a subtropical ridge and an area of low
pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A gradual
turn toward the north-northeast should occur on Wednesday as the
system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge.
Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to accelerate northeastward
ahead of a trough over the eastern United States and eastern Canada.
This will take the system across the southeastern United States
within the next couple of days, near the coast of New England in
about 3 days and near or over Atlantic Canada in 4 days or so. The
official forecast is nearly the same as the previous one and,
again, very close to the model consensus.

The environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is not ideal for
strengthening, with moderate westerly shear and some dry mid-level
air. However, upper-level divergence ahead of a trough over the
east-central Gulf could result in some intensification of the
system during the next 12-24 hours. The official forecast
continues to show the cyclone nearing hurricane strength while it
approaches the north Florida Gulf coast, but this is at the high
end of the numerical intensity guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba today resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves near or along the western
Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible in southwest and western portions
of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across coastal
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across
portions of the Florida Keys and are expected to spread northward
along much of the west coast of the state through Wednesday morning,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Georgia coast and
portions of the South Carolina coast, where tropical storm
conditions are possible late Wednesday and early Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 24.9N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 26.6N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
145 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...RECON FINDS ELSA STRONGER...

Recent Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate
that the Elsa has strengthened and maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. A special
advisory will be issued within the hour in place of the intermediate
advisory to reflect this change and to issue a hurricane warning for
a portion of the west coast of Florida.


SUMMARY OF 145 PM EDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown/Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Special Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued along the west coast of Florida
from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a generally
northward motion is expected today and tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later
today through tonight. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the
north Florida Gulf coast on Wednesday and then move across the
southeastern United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts, and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane
before making landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin after Elsa
moves inland by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening.
Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central
Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the Tropical Storm
Warning area tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South
Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding..

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across
the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm Elsa Special Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

This is a special advisory to issue a Hurricane Warning for a
portion of the Florida Gulf coast. Recent observations from an
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum winds in Elsa are now near 60 kt. However, the aircraft
has not yet had a chance to sample the northeastern quadrant, so it
is possible that higher winds exist. Although the environment is
not conducive for significant strengthening before landfall, only a
slight increase in intensity would result in Elsa becoming a
hurricane tonight or early Wednesday.

Aside from the small adjustments to the 12- and 24-intensity
forecasts to reflect the revised current intensity estimate, no
other changes have been made to the official forecast. The NHC
track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the 1500 UTC
advisory.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba today resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves near or along the western
Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible in southwest and western portions
of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across coastal
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions of the Florida Keys and are expected to spread
northward along much of the west coast of the state through
Wednesday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Georgia coast and
portions of the South Carolina coast, where tropical storm
conditions are possible late Wednesday and early Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1800Z 25.4N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[AlphaToOmega]

616
WTNT35 KNHC 062038
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL OVER THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 83.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Georgia
from the Mouth of St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys east of the Seven
Mile Bridge has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry
Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River
* Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to
Altamaha Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a generally
northward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later
today through tonight. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the
north Florida Gulf coast Wednesday morning and then move across the
southeastern United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts, and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane before making
landfall. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. Buoy 42023 recently measured a peak 1-minute
sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) gusting to 78 mph (126 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening.
Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central
Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas
tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast
by late Wednesday and are possible in the watch area in Georgia and
South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south
of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.
Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain
areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the
Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown/Papin

000
WTNT45 KNHC 062039
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

The Hurricane Hunters completed their mission into Elsa a little
while ago, and observations from the aircraft indicate that the
storm's maximum winds are near 60 kt. Elsa is a sheared tropical
cyclone, with the low level center situated on the southwest edge
of the main area of deep convection. Much of the western half of
the circulation continues to lack significant shower or
thunderstorm activity. Moderate westerly vertical shear, along
with relatively dry mid-level air, should continue to affect the
cyclone until landfall within the next day or so. However
this environment should not be hostile enough to prevent some
slight strengthening, and Elsa is predicted to become a
hurricane overnight.

Elsa is moving northward, or 350/9 kt. A continued northward
track is likely for the next 24 hours or so as the tropical
cyclone moves between the western periphery of an Atlantic
subtropical ridge and a broad low pressure area over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A turn toward the north-northeast
along the northwestern side of the ridge is expected by late
tomorrow, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast
over the next couple of days ahead of a trough over the eastern
United States and eastern Canada. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous ones and near or slightly to the right of
the model consensus tracks.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and
northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may
result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate
river flooding. Mid- to late-week, heavy rainfall across southeast
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions of the Florida Keys and will spread northward along
the west coast of the state within the warning area through
Wednesday morning.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple
of days, tropical storm conditions are expected in a portion of
southeastern Georgia and are possible elsewhere along much of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 25.8N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 27.5N 83.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 30.0N 82.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/0600Z 32.3N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1800Z 34.8N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0600Z 37.4N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 09/1800Z 40.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 10/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[AlphaToOmega]

826
WTNT35 KNHC 062341
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 83.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Key West
to the Seven Mile Bridge has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River
* Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to
Altamaha Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.6 North, longitude
83.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 10 mph (22 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed
by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of
Florida later tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast
to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late
Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United
States through Thursday.

Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Tampa Bay indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional slight strengthening will be possible
overnight. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late
Wednesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. Buoy 42013, located due north of Elsa, recently
measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) gusting
to 47 mph (76 km/h). A wind gust to 43 mph (69 mph) was recently
measured on North Captiva Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical
storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in
the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the
Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and are
possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday
night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south
of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.
Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain
areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the
Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA MOVING NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE TAMPA BAY AREA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 83.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward from Altamaha
Sound, Georgia, to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Little River
Inlet, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of
Chokoloskee, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Chokoloskee to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Duck, North
Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler
weather radars near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. Elsa
is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later
tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast to make
landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late Wednesday
morning and then move across the southeastern United States through
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until
landfall occurs on Tuesday. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves
inland by late Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km). Sarasota Airport recently reported a sustained wind
of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical
storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in
the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the
Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and
along the South Carolina coast Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south
of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.
Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain
areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across the western
and central Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on
Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and eastern South
Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

After an earlier flurry of convective bursting and even the
development of a eye in radar imagery, Elsa appears to have leveled
off over the past couple of hours. Between 2100 UTC and 0000 UTC,
WSR-88D radars from Tampa and Key West indicated areas of average
Doppler velocities of 75-85 kt between 8000-13,000 ft, which were
co-located with convective bands consisting of 50 dBZ and higher
reflectivity values, which equates to at least 65 kt surface winds.
Elsa's center also passed just barely to the east of Buoy 41023
around 2100 UTC, producing a sustained wind of 49 kt at 3-meters
elevation, which equals a 10-meter wind speed of 55 kt on the west
side of the cyclone. The strongest 850-mb flight-level wind measured
by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft so far has been 74 kt.
However, radar data indicate that the aircraft just missed the
strongest winds in the convection by only about 5 n mi. The initial
intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops
around the ragged eye feature later tonight.

Elsa is moving northward, or 360/12 kt. This motion should continue
tonight and early Wednesday until landfall occurs across the
northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward
the north-northeast is expected by late Wednesday, followed by some
acceleration toward the northeast on Thursday as Elsa rounds the
western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge and gets caught
up by the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-level trough. The
official track forecast lies between the simple and
corrected-consensus tracks models and the previous NHC track
forecast.

Elsa's inner-core convection looks pretty ragged right now, but the
vertical structure has improved based on the reconnaissance data,
which indicate that the low-, middle- and upper-level circulations
are nearly vertically stacked now. Elsa's ragged eye feature along
with the very warm water beneath the cyclone and the upcoming
nocturnal convective maximum period could combine to allow
convection to redevelop. However, proximity to dry mid-level air
just to the west should prevent any significant strengthening from
occurring. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to
increased frictional effects and Elsa's small size. The pressure
gradient, however, is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to
increase between Elsa and a sprawling surface high pressure system
over the western Atlantic, which should act to increase the winds to
tropical storm force near the coastal areas from Georgia to North
Carolina on Wednesday and Thursday. The new NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus
intensity models HCCA and IVCN.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and
northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may
result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate
river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across southeast
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions southwest Florida and will continue to spread
northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area
through Wednesday morning.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple
of days, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 27.3N 83.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 29.0N 83.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 31.4N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/1200Z 33.9N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0000Z 36.4N 77.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/1200Z 39.3N 73.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/0000Z 42.8N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 11/0000Z 51.0N 54.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA MOVING NORTHWARD ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the west coast of Florida has been
replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning south of Chassahowitzka to
Egmont Key.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of
Englewood.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the coasts of North
Carolina and Virginia from Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague,
Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River,
including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Chassahowitzka to the Steinhatchee
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from south of Chassahowitzka to Englewood
* West coast of Florida north of the Steinhatchee River to
Ochlockonee River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Chincoteague,
Virginia
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas, the mid-Atlantic coast,
southeastern New England, and the Canadian Maritimes should
monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 83.5 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a general
northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or
tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday.
On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the
west coast of Florida this morning, then make landfall along the
north Florida Gulf coast by late this morning or this afternoon.
The storm should then move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic
United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until
landfall later today. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane warning
area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
spread northward across the western Florida Peninsula into the
Florida Big Bend region in the warning area today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the
Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina
coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic states by Thursday
night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to
6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches today,
which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along
with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight
through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban
flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across west-central to
north Florida into this afternoon. The tornado threat will continue
later today through tonight across southeast Georgia and eastern
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

The central convection associated with Elsa dissipated for a time
earlier this morning, although the latest radar and satellite
imagery shows a new band forming in the northern semicircle. This
decrease was likely caused by a combination of shear and dry air
entrainment, and it has caused the cyclone to weaken. Aircraft and
surface observations indicate the central pressure has risen to
near 1004 mb, and the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly
generous 55 kt based on aircraft and Doppler radar data.

After a slight jog to the left, the storm has resumed a motion of
360/12. This motion should continue for the next 12 h or so until
landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula.
Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected
by, followed by acceleration toward the northeast as Elsa moves
into the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast guidance has
shifted a little to the left since the last advisory, and the new
forecast track is also nudged in that direction. The new track
lies a little to the right of the various consensus models.

While little change in strength is forecast before landfall, there
is a chance that the new convection could cause a short-lived
re-intensification. So, based on this possibility a hurricane
warning remains in effect for portions of the west coast of
Florida. After landfall, Elsa should weaken as it crosses the
southeastern United States, followed by some re-intensification as
it accelerates back over the Atlantic. The system is expected to
become extratropical by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritimes
in 72 h. The new intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the
guidance envelope and has only minor adjustments from the previous
forecast.


Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula
today, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and
isolated moderate river flooding. Heavy rainfall across southeast
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast
and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and
urban flooding.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida today, and a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible during the next several
hours along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring across portions of the western Florida peninsula and will
continue to spread northward along the west coast of the state
within the warning area through today.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day
or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions
are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic state by
Thursday night or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 28.5N 83.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 30.2N 83.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 32.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/1800Z 35.3N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 38.1N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/1800Z 41.5N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/0600Z 45.6N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z 54.0N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 83.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued
south of the Middle of Longboat Key.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from the Middle of Longboat Key to the
Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Chassahowitzka to the Steinhatchee
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from south of Chassahowitzka to the Middle
of Longboat Key
* West coast of Florida north of the Steinhatchee River to
Ochlockonee River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Chincoteague,
Virginia
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas, the mid-Atlantic coast,
southeastern New England, and the Canadian Maritimes should
monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NWS
Doppler radars near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 83.6 West. Elsa
is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a general
northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or
tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday.
On the forecast track, Elsa will make landfall along the north
Florida Gulf coast by late this morning or this afternoon. The
storm should then move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic
United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely until landfall later
today. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. A C-MAN station at Cedar Key, Florida, recently
measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) gusting to 51 mph (66
km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions could still occur in the hurricane
warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue
along the Gulf coast of Florida in the warning area today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area
along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South
Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic states
by Thursday night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River to Aucilla River...3 to 5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...2
to 4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Charlotte
Harbor...1 to 3 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to
6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches today,
which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along
with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight
through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban
flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across west-central to
north Florida into this afternoon. The tornado threat will continue
later today through tonight across southeast Georgia and eastern
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the west
coast of Florida through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA MAKING LANDFALL IN TAYLOR COUNTY ALONG THE
NORTH FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 83.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM WSW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings south of Aripeka, Florida, have been discontinued.

The hurricane warning along the west coast of Florida has been
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Watch for the Florida Gulf coast has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including the
Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach, the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island, and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Aripeka to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Aripeka to Ochlockonee River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 83.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a generally
northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or
tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday.
On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move inland into
Florida this afternoon. The storm should then move across the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected as Elsa moves further inland this
afternoon into tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. An unofficial weather station at Horseshoe Beach,
Florida recently measured a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h)
gusting to 71 mph (114 km/h). Earlier, a C-MAN station at Cedar
Key, Florida measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) gusting
to 59 mph (95 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast
of Florida in the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast
by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight
and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday
night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aripeka, FL to Aucilla River...2 to 4 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Aripeka, FL including Tampa Bay...1 to
3 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3
to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches
today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding,
along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3
inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday
night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South
Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the west coast of
Florida through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown



Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 30...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

Corrected Taylor County to Dixie County in the first paragraph.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has made several fixes in
Elsa this morning, and recent observations from the plane indicated
that the center is now on the coast making landfall. The aircraft
found that the central pressure remained about steady with maximum
winds of 55 kts up to landfall. Sustained tropical-storm-force
winds are being reported from observing sites within the warning
area, with an unofficial report of a sustained wind of 54 kt gusting
to 62 kt at Horseshoe Beach in Dixie County, Florida during the
past half hour.

Center fixes indicate that Elsa has continued northward, with a
motion estimate of 360/12 kt. Elsa should turn toward the
north-northeast today as it moves along the northwestern periphery
of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. On Thursday, the cyclone should
begin to accelerate northeastward on the southeast side of a broad
mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada.
The official track forecast is on top of the latest multi-model
consensus, TVCA, solution. This is only slightly to left of the
previous NHC track, and shows the center moving near the
northeastern U.S. coast within the next 48 hours.

Weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land during the
next 36 hours or so, and the official intensity forecast closely
resembles the decay-SHIPS guidance. Since winds of 35 kt are
possible near the coast well to the southeast of the center within
the next day or two, a tropical storm warning is in effect for a
portion of the southeast U.S. coast. Some slight reintensification
is shown when the center moves near the coast in 48-60 hours.
However, since the water temperatures are rather cool near the
northeast coast, strengthening will probably be influenced by
baroclinic forcing associated with a 500 mb shortwave trough. The
system will likely become extratropical by 72 hours if not sooner
while it moves through Atlantic Canada.


Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula
today, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and
isolated moderate river flooding. Heavy rainfall across southeast
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across southeast Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast
and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and
urban flooding.

2. There is still a danger of life-threatening storm surge along
portions of the west coast of Florida today, and a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions wile continue today across portions of
the northeast Gulf coast today within the warning area.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day
or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions
are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states by
Thursday night or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 29.9N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 31.7N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1200Z 34.3N 80.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 40.6N 73.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR COAST
60H 10/0000Z 44.5N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR COAST
72H 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1200Z 58.0N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 83.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings have been discontinued south of the Suwannee River,
Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee
River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 83.5 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or
over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected through
tomorrow as Elsa moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast
of Florida in the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast
by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight
and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday
night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Aucilla River...2 to 4 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...1
to 3 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3
to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches
today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding,
along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3
inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday
night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South
Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the west coast of
Florida through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown

[cycloneye]

[Div]Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY
RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 83.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Long Island from East
Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from
Port Jefferson Harbor to the eastern tip along the north shore.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of southern
New England from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach,
Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard,
and Nantucket.

All warnings have been discontinued along the Florida Gulf coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of
Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.4 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or
over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over
land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. Moody Air Force Base near Valdosta, Georgia, has
recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and
along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the
mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Aucilla River...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...additional 1 to
3 inches through tonight, with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches.
Localized maximum storm totals up to 12 inches across southwest
Florida. Additional heavy rainfall may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with continued rises to minor and
isolated moderate flood.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible this evening into Thursday, which may result in
considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight
through Thursday night, which could lead to limited flash and urban
flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South
Carolina. The tornado threat should move into the eastern
Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown


Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

Surface synoptic data indicate that the center of Elsa has moved
into extreme southern Georgia and, assuming continued weakening
since earlier today, the maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt.
This may be a generous estimate of the current intensity since no
surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds have
been recently received. Elsa should weaken into a tropical
depression on Thursday. By early Friday, the dynamical models show
some restrengthening of the cyclone as it moves along the
Mid-Atlantic coastline. However, the simulated satellite imagery
from the global models at that time depict the system resembling a
frontal cyclone, so it is dubious as to whether Elsa will be
completely tropical in 48 hours. Due to the uncertainty as to when
extratropical transition will occur, tropical storm watches have
been issued for Long Island and portions of southern New England at
this time.

The initial motion is northward, or 010/12 kt. Elsa is forecast to
turn north-northeastward overnight as it moves around the
northwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge while
accelerating northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over
the eastern United States and Canada on Thursday. The official
forecast is about the same as the previous one and closely follows
the multi-model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and
isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. Heavy
rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina,
and southeastern Virginia may result inconsiderable flash and urban
flooding across southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England
Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day
or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic
and southern New England states by Thursday night or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 30.8N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 08/0600Z 32.8N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1800Z 35.6N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1800Z 42.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0600Z 46.0N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1800Z 50.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch[/Div]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND VERY HEAVY RAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 82.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Mary's River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of
Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 82.7 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or
over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.

Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening
is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km)
generally southeast of the center near the Atlantic coast. A
WeatherFlow station on Jekyll Island, Georgia recently reported a
sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches)
based on surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Georgia coast tonight and along the South
Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and
northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...additional 1 to
3 inches through tonight, with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches.
Localized maximum storm totals up to 12 inches across southwest
Florida. Additional heavy rainfall may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with continued rises to minor and
isolated moderate flood.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible this evening into Thursday, which may result in
considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight
through Thursday night, which could lead to limited flash and urban
flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South
Carolina. The tornado threat should move into the eastern
Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH CAROLINA AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 82.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Little River Inlet
South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet New Jersey, including Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds, Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal
Potomac south of Cobb Island and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter
Beach.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Altamaha Sound Georgia has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey.
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of
Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 82.3 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, pass near
the eastern mid-Atlantic states late Thursday and move near or
over the northeastern United States on Friday.

Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening
is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land, and some
re-strengthening is possible on Friday while the system moves close
to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km),
mostly southeast of the center near the coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Georgia coast tonight, along the South
Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday, along the North
Carolina coast on Thursday and along the mid-Atlantic coast by
Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are likely tonight through Thursday, which
may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches from
late tonight through Thursday night are possible, which could lead
to limited flash and urban flooding.

From the Mid-Atlantic into New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches are possible Thursday into Friday. This could
lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible overnight from
southeastern Georgia into the coastal plain of South Carolina.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake




Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is
maintaining its intensity. However, these winds aren't close to
the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the
eastern semicircle of the storm. The current wind speed is set to
40 kt in accordance with an earlier sustained wind report of 38 kt,
and radar velocities reduced to the surface that would support at
least 40 kt.

Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of
Elsa's circulation remains over land. However by late Thursday,
more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number
of the models suggest re-intensification could take place.
It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however,
are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the
mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough
interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case
after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same
models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been
relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of
Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that
model's relatively weaker solution.

The storm has turned north-northeastward tonight and is moving a
little faster, about 14 kt. Elsa should move northeastward at an
increasing forward speed during the next few days as it becomes
embedded within fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough. No significant changes were made to the previous track
forecast since guidance remains in good agreement. Elsa is likely
to become absorbed north of Newfoundland by another extratropical
low by day 4.

There is greater confidence tonight that some portion of North
Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast will receive
tropical-storm force-winds, so the Tropical Storm Watch has been
upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in those areas. Areas to the
north remain less certain, and remain under a Tropical Storm Watch.


Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across southeastern Georgia into the Lowcountry of
South Carolina tonight, heavy rainfall may result in considerable
flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall, from North
Carolina across the mid-Atlantic and into New England Thursday and
Friday, could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina on
Thursday and the mid-Atlantic by Thursday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the southern New England states
and New York by Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 32.1N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 08/1200Z 34.1N 80.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0000Z 37.1N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1200Z 40.4N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0000Z 54.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 33...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

Corrected warning section

...CENTER OF ELSA MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 81.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WNW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect north of Great Egg Inlet,
New Jersey to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and for the coast of Long
Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south
shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore. A
Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from New Haven, Connecticut
to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island,
Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and the
Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 81.3 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
move over South Carolina and North Carolina today, pass near the
eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the
northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system
should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some re-strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the
system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone Friday night or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. The NOAA station
at Folly Island, South Carolina, recently reported sustained winds
of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Georgia coast for the next few hours, along
the South Carolina coast this morning, along the North Carolina
coast later today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast by this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Friday and
Friday night. Non-tropical gale warnings are in effect for
portions of the U. S. coast north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, and gale conditions are expected in this area late Friday and
Friday night.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across portions of South Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches
with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches are likely through
Thursday, which may result in limited flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia
and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain
with isolated totals up to 6 inches on Thursday through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas
into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a
tornado or two may continue tonight into Friday morning across
coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

Doppler radar and surface observation indicate that the center of
Elsa is moving into southern South Carolina at this time. The
organization of the storm has changed little during the past
several hours, with a complex of bands in the eastern semicircle.
The initial intensity is 35 kt, and these winds are occurring along
an area of the coast and coastal waters well southeast of the
center.

The initial motion is now 035/16. The track guidance is in good
agreement that Elsa should accelerate northeastward during the next
few days as it becomes entrained into the mid-latitude southwesterly
flow, with the track carrying the system across the Carolinas and
the mid-Atlantic states during the next 24 hours, then near or over
southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada. The new forecast
track is basically an update of the previous track, and it is very
close to the consensus models.

Rawinsonde data and GOES-16 RGB airmass imagery show an upper-level
shortwave trough over the southeastern United States to the west of
Elsa, and the global models forecast this system to follow the
cyclone northeastward and take on a negative tilt. This should
result in increasing upper-level divergence over Elsa, which in turn
should lead to some strengthening as the storm moves near or over
the east coast of the United States. The 00Z ECMWF model is not as
bullish on intensification as its previous run, but it and the 00Z
UKMET still call for strengthening, and even the weaker GFS
forecasts the favorable upper-air pattern. Based on this, the new
intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening than the
previous forecast.

Based on the new forecast track, the tropical storm warning has
been extended northward along the United States east coast to
Massachusetts. Non-tropical gale warnings are in effect for the
coastal areas to the north of the tropical storm warning due to the
likelihood that Elsa will become extratropical as it reaches that
area.


Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across the Carolinas Thursday, heavy rainfall may
result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the
Mid-Atlantic into New England Thursday and Friday could lead to
considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina
starting later today and the mid-Atlantic by this afternoon or
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gale winds are
expected over the portions of the New Hampshire and Maine coasts by
late Friday or Friday night, and those conditions are possible over
portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 33.4N 81.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 08/1800Z 35.5N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 10/0600Z 46.9N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/1800Z 51.9N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0600Z 56.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS AS ELSA HEADS
NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 80.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of South Santee River South
Carolina has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and the
Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 80.5 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
move over South Carolina and North Carolina today, pass near the
eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the
northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system
should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some re-strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while
the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone Friday night or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. Myrtle Beach
International Airport, South Carolina, recently reported a
sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) gusting to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts this morning, and
along the mid-Atlantic coast by this afternoon and evening. These
winds will spread northward in the warning area over the
northeastern states by Friday and Friday night. Non-tropical gale
warnings are in effect for portions of the U. S. coast north of the
Tropical Storm Warning area, and gale conditions are expected in
this area late Friday and Friday night.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across portions of South Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches
with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches are likely through
Thursday, which may result in limited flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia
and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain
with isolated totals up to 6 inches on Thursday through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas
into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a
tornado or two may continue tonight into Friday morning across
coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...ELSA MOVES INTO NORTH CAROLINA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.0N 79.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 79.7 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
move over South Carolina and North Carolina today, pass near the
eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the
northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system
should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the
system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A buoy near Sunset Beach, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) gusting to 58 mph (93
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
the North Carolina coasts today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast by
this afternoon and evening. These winds will spread northward in
the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday and Friday
night.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas
into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a
tornado or two may continue tonight and Friday morning across
coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin




Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

Surface synoptic observations and high-resolution satellite images
indicate that the center of the storm has moved into North Carolina.
WSR 88-D Doppler radar data and surface reports indicate that the
maximum winds are near 40 kt. These highest winds are likely
occurring in some of the stronger convective bands near the coast.

Elsa is gradually accelerating toward the northeast, and the
initial motion is about 040/17 kt. A faster northeastward motion
is expected over the next couple of days as the cyclone becomes
entrained into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad
mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada.
Elsa should move near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic
Canada during the next 24-48 hours. The official track forecast
is basically an update of the previous one and continues to follow
the multi-model consensus.

Some slight intensification is possible within the next 24-36 hours
due to baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude short wave trough.
Around 36 hours, the simulated satellite imagery from the global
models depicts a cloud pattern resembling that of a frontal
cyclone. Moreover, the FSU phase analyses of the GFS fields shows
the system becoming extratropical at that time. This is also
reflected in the official forecast.


Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across North Carolina and Virginia today, heavy
rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy
rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Friday could
lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast today and the mid-Atlantic coast by this
afternoon or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday.
Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday
night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 35.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1200Z 40.6N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1200Z 49.0N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0000Z 53.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1200Z 59.0N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...ELSA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTH CAROLINA...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INTO VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 79.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 79.0 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
continue to move over North Carolina today, pass near the
eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the
northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system
should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the
system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A NOAA-NOS weather station in Wrightsville Beach,
North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (68
km/h) gusting to 50 mph (80 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts today, and
along the mid-Atlantic coast later this afternoon and evening.
These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the
northeastern states by Friday and Friday night.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas
into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a
tornado or two may continue tonight and Friday morning across
coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...ELSA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...HEADED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST....


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 78.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Little River Inlet has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 78.3 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
continue to move over North Carolina today, pass near the eastern
mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the
northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system
should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. No significant change in strength is
expected through Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of the North Carolina coast today, and along the
mid-Atlantic coast later this afternoon and evening. These winds
will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern
states by Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia and eastern Maryland through this
evening. The threat for a tornado or two will continue through
late tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the
Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

A NOAA NOS observing site at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 41 kt, so Elsa's maximum winds
are now estimated to be 45 kt. A number of other observing sites in
the vicinity have also reported sustained tropical-storm-force
winds. Elsa's slight strengthening may be the result of baroclinic
forcing associated with an approaching short-wave trough. The
system's cloud tops have warmed somewhat during the day, but it is
still producing some very heavy rains.

Elsa's low-level center is a bit elongated from southwest to
northeast, but surface synoptic data indicate that it has moved into
northern North Carolina. The storm continues to gradually
accelerate toward the northeast, and the initial motion estimate is
040/18 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected over the next
1-2 days as the cyclone moves along with the mid-latitude
southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the
eastern United States and Canada. Elsa should move near or
over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within the next
24-48 hours. The official track forecast remains close to the
previous one and similar to the multi-model consensus, TVCA.

The global models suggest that not much additional strengthening is
likely. Simulated satellite imagery from these models show an
extratropical appearance in 24-36 hours so the official forecast
shows an extratropical transition by late Friday. This is also
supported by cyclone phase analyses of the model fields from
Florida State University.


Key Messages:

1.As Elsa moves from North Carolina to Virginia today and this
evening, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban
flooding. Heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England
through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the
North Carolina coast this afternoon and spread over the
mid-Atlantic coast later today or tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England
states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over
portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 36.3N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0600Z 38.7N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 10/0600Z 47.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1800Z 51.5N 54.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0600Z 56.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT FROM ELSA CONTINUES ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 77.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Little River
Inlet, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 77.4 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa
will pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states tonight, and move
near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday
night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through
Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km),
well to the southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow weather station
on Alligator Bridge in Dare County, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) gusting to 51 mph (81
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of the North Carolina coast and along the
mid-Atlantic coast later this evening. These winds will spread
northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by
Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia and eastern Maryland through this
evening. The threat for a tornado or two will continue through
late tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the
Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake