WPAC: IN-FA - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

If the HWRF verifies, this thing might have a massive eye on approach to Taiwan...

I don’t think it will. The HWRF was expecting it to have a massive eye now, but it looks to be normal sized. In-Fa will need to rapidly intensify to reach a point where an EWRC can happen and give it a massive eye before landfall.

[Hayabusa]

Interesting latest run from the GFS and the Euro they keep In-fa rolling for the next 10 days, if that comes true, that would be a sweet ACE maker.

[Hayabusa]

TY2106(In-fa)
Issued at 2021/07/20 12:50 UTC
Analisys at 07/20 12 UTC
Category TY
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center Position N24°35′(24.6°)
E129°0′(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
50-kt wind area WIDE185km(100NM)
30-kt wind area NE560km(300NM)
SW390km(210NM)

[shah83]

Like Fitow, not Harvey...

[Teban54]

Possibly indirectly related to In-Fa, there's an extratropical low in central China that's currently bringing record-breaking rainfalls to Henan province and its metro area Zhengzhou, with up to 200mm (~7.9in) of rain in an hour. Although it's very far from In-Fa, some weather enthusiasts think In-Fa (and to a lesser extent Cempaka) might have contributed to this by bringing moisture from the Pacific westward beneath the ridge.

The situation there is really concerning. There was a video of a subway train full of passengers with water rising to their necks (fortunately they have all been rescued).

[Stormybajan]

Possibly indirectly related to In-Fa, there's an extratropical low in central China that's currently bringing record-breaking rainfalls to Henan province and its metro area Zhengzhou, with up to 200mm (~7.9in) of rain in an hour. Although it's very far from In-Fa, some weather enthusiasts think In-Fa (and to a lesser extent Cempaka) might have contributed to this by bringing moisture from the Pacific westward beneath the ridge.

The situation there is really concerning. There was a video of a subway train full of passengers with water rising to their necks (fortunately they have all been rescued).

 https://twitter.com/tongbingxue/status/1417484763145904139

[ElectricStorm]

The last few GFS runs have this peaking in the 920's mb range. Not sure it's going to be able to get that strong but you never know...

[aspen]

The last few GFS runs have this peaking in the 920's mb range. Not sure it's going to be able to get that strong but you never know...

Based on how quickly its IR presentation is improving, with <-75C convection surrounding the entire eyewall, and how much time it has, I think there’s a real chance we could see at least a 120 kt Cat 4 out of this. Maybe it could be the second Super Typhoon of the year.

[Sciencerocks]

[sikkar]

Dangerous setup for many, I hope people are prepared.
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/en_nowc/#el ... pth:normal

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro goes into Shanghai, still a big discrepancy from the models.

[Hayabusa]

[aspen]

I have no idea why the JTWC decided to keep In-Fa at 75kt for this advisory. It’s at least 80-85 kt by now.

[ElectricStorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JUL 2021 Time : 221000 UTC
Lat : 24:02:59 N Lon : 127:55:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 950.7mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.8 5.8

[aspen]

This is a major hurricane. I have no idea what the JTWC’s logic was for maintaining 75 kt when In-Fa’s satellite presentation has noticeably improved between 12z and 18z, but because of how low they went for 18z, there will likely be behind for all future advisories until peak intensity because I don’t think they’ll do such a big intensity upgrade from 75 kt to 105 kt.

[mrbagyo]

James ( Typhoonfury) has settled down in Ishigaki to chase this one up.

[Yellow Evan]

This is a major hurricane. I have no idea what the JTWC’s logic was for maintaining 75 kt when In-Fa’s satellite presentation has noticeably improved between 12z and 18z, but because of how low they went for 18z, there will likely be behind for all future advisories until peak intensity because I don’t think they’ll do such a big intensity upgrade from 75 kt to 105 kt.

It's eye is still a bit large and ragged especially on IR. It's likely higher than what JTWC says but not a major either.

[ElectricStorm]

09W IN-FA 210721 0000 24.1N 127.9E WPAC 90 955

[doomhaMwx]

09W IN-FA 210721 0000 24.1N 127.9E WPAC 90 955

Bumped to 95kts!

09W IN-FA 210721 0000 24.1N 127.9E WPAC 95 953

[Sciencerocks]