ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[abajan]

Winds up to 5-10 kts from Jacksonville to Brunswick now as the center (naked swirl) nears. Zero chance this will become a TD:

http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg

Slowly getting there.
Should be down to 0/0 by the 2 am TWO, but I don't think I'll stay up for that momentous event.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that the weak low pressure
system that was earlier just off the southeastern United States
coastline is now moving onshore just north of the border between
Georgia and Florida. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated
with the low remains disorganized and development of this system is
unlikely as the low moves just inland over the Georgia coast
tonight. Locally heavy rainfall remains possible over portions of
the northeastern Florida and Georgia coast though tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

[NDG]

Winds up to 5-10 kts from Jacksonville to Brunswick now as the center (naked swirl) nears. Zero chance this will become a TD:

http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg

Model guidance suggested a storm, yet so far it has not materialized. The ECMWF at one point showed a 90%-100% chance of development, but there is no tropical depression as of now. If there is ultimately no tropical cyclone out of this, that might call into question the reliability of the ECMWF and other models.

Like I told you yesterday, that Euro forecast for Tropical Cyclone Strike Possibilty that you go by is a horrible forecast to look at for Tropical Development. Very little of the Euro Ensembles showed 90L becoming an organized tropical cyclone at any time.
You want more proof that is horrible, look at the chances that the same chart has for where 90C is, you would say that it has 80-90s percent chance of developing like the graphics show, but if you go to the same Euro it shows no development and also if you go to the Euro ensembles less than 15% show brief weak development. That's not a high chance of development like the graphic shows.

[Sciencerocks]

[abajan]

Six hours late, but as expected:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of a weak low pressure area that moved inland along the
Georgia coastline last night are located just inland near the
Georgia/South Carolina border and are producing a few showers and
thunderstorms. Significant redevelopment of this system is not
expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Sciencerocks]

[AlphaToOmega]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
NNNN