ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[LarryWx]

This could turn out to be the 4th tropical system to have an impact on this area and we're still in July! If there is going to be impact, this is how I like them, weak.

[AlphaToOmega]

This could turn out to be the 4th tropical system to have an impact on this area and we're still in July! If there is going to be impact, this is how I like them, weak.

Even if this does develop, it will not have impacts at all. The pressure of this system is only 2 mb lower than the environmental pressure. Tropical waves probably produce more inclement weather than this.

[LarryWx]

This could turn out to be the 4th tropical system to have an impact on this area and we're still in July! If there is going to be impact, this is how I like them, weak.

Even if this does develop, it will not have impacts at all. The pressure of this system is only 2 mb lower than the environmental pressure. Tropical waves probably produce more inclement weather than this.

I mean weak impact. I wouldn't call it "no" impact. The model consensus has it causing an bit of an increase in rainfall. That's what I mean by impact. No wind, tornadoes, or heavy rainfall, or surge.

[LarryWx]

From NWS CHS: there will be some impact even with no development but nothing big thankfully:

MONDAY: LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE, MOST LIKELY INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD INJECT GREATER MOISTURE WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION, AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE. BECAUSE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW REMAIN
DISORGANIZED, MAXIMUM POPS DURING MAXIMUM HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON
ARE CAPPED AT 30-40 PERCENT SOUTH TO 15-20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER, THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE CONSERVATIVE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECT
GREATER COVERAGE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AS COMPARED WITH PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER
80S NEAR THE COAST AND LOWER 90S INLAND.

[toad strangler]

ZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1419477791507025920

[Stormybajan]

ZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1419477791507025920?s=20

As expected

[ElectricStorm]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite and radar data indicate that shower and thunderstorm
activity associated with a low pressure system located about 45
miles east of St. Augustine, Florida, or about 75 miles southeast of
Jacksonville, Florida, remain disorganized and limited in coverage.
Environmental conditions are gradually becoming less conducive for a
tropical depression to develop before the low moves inland over
northeastern Florida or Georgia later this morning. However,
interests in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of
this system due to the possibility of brief periods of gusty winds
to 40 mph, locally heavy rainfall, and dangerous lightning strikes.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[AlphaToOmega]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images and radar data indicate that shower and
thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located
a short distance east of Jacksonville, Florida, remains disorganized
and limited in coverage. Development of this system has become less
likely before the low moves inland over northeastern Florida or
southeastern Georgia later today. However, interests in these areas
should continue to monitor the progress of this system due to the
possibility of brief periods of gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[abajan]

Should be down to 0/0 in the next TWO.
But we'll see.

[wxman57]

Winds up to 5-10 kts from Jacksonville to Brunswick now as the center (naked swirl) nears. Zero chance this will become a TD:

[AlphaToOmega]

Winds up to 5-10 kts from Jacksonville to Brunswick now as the center (naked swirl) nears. Zero chance this will become a TD:

http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg

Model guidance suggested a storm, yet so far it has not materialized. The ECMWF at one point showed a 90%-100% chance of development, but there is no tropical depression as of now. If there is ultimately no tropical cyclone out of this, that might call into question the reliability of the ECMWF and other models.

[wxman57]

Winds up to 5-10 kts from Jacksonville to Brunswick now as the center (naked swirl) nears. Zero chance this will become a TD:

http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg

Model guidance suggested a storm, yet so far it has not materialized. The ECMWF at one point showed a 90%-100% chance of development, but there is no tropical depression as of now. If there is ultimately no tropical cyclone out of this, that might call into question the reliability of the ECMWF and other models.

No, model guidance suggested a weak 1012mb low, not a storm. Can't go by HWRF intensity predictions (or track, for that matter).

[LarryWx]

Invest 90L may have fizzled in terms of TD potential (fine with me), but it is still having a significant impact on the GA coast with bands of moderate to heavy rains coming off the ocean, including at my place right now. This is the 4th tropical entity to do so here and we’re still in July!

[Sciencerocks]

[InfernoFlameCat]

Thank you, [fred candidate] but unfortunately you did not get the part. NEXT!

[cheezyWXguy]

Winds up to 5-10 kts from Jacksonville to Brunswick now as the center (naked swirl) nears. Zero chance this will become a TD:

http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg

Model guidance suggested a storm, yet so far it has not materialized. The ECMWF at one point showed a 90%-100% chance of development, but there is no tropical depression as of now. If there is ultimately no tropical cyclone out of this, that might call into question the reliability of the ECMWF and other models.

The reliability of every model should be questioned, they’re just tools. The dogma of “King Euro” we often see needs to tone down a bit.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images and radar data indicate that shower and
thunderstorm activity associated with a weak low pressure system
located a short distance east of the southeastern Georgia coast
remains disorganized and limited in coverage. Development of this
system is no longer likely before the low moves inland over the
Georgia coast later today or tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the northeastern Florida and Georgia
coasts through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images and radar data indicate that shower and
thunderstorm activity associated with a weak low pressure system
located a short distance east of the southeastern Georgia coast
remains disorganized and limited in coverage. Development of this
system is no longer likely before the low moves inland over the
Georgia coast later today or tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the northeastern Florida and Georgia
coasts through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

So, I'm guessing there's a 20% chance of development if and when it recurves back over the water?
Should be interesting to see what the chances are in the next TWO.

[johngaltfla]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6033/Jcu3PI.gif

I've seen better swirls in my WaWa frozen coffee.

[HurricaneBelle]

hope someone got video from inside the eye as the swirl passed over