WPAC: LUPIT - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

ZCZC
WHCI40 BABJ 050320
TS 2109 (2109) LUPIT LANDED ON SHANTOU GUANGDONG PROVINCE
050320GMT (23m/s)
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[doomhaMwx]

Lupit has emerged over the Taiwan Strait and actually looks pretty good right now.

[doomhaMwx]

The terrain of Taiwan doing its thing. Numerous stations in Taiwan have recorded >300mm of rain in just a span of 10hrs — the highest being 504mm in Jiamu, Pingtung County!

 https://twitter.com/doomhaMwx/status/1423834646412890117

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[Hayabusa]

Still sees it as a TC

WDPN32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNING NR
028//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 37.5N 136.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 192 NM NORTHWEST OF YOKOTA AB, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO DECAY IN THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) AS EVIDENCED BY
SHEARED AND COLLAPSING CENTRAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER, COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP FROM JMA SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) REMAINS INTACT.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
LLC IN THE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ADT ESTIMATE AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM
NEARBY SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SSTS IN THE SOJ AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSET BY STRONG VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 090850Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 30+ KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS LUPIT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE SOJ UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND CROSS
NORTHERN HONSHU JUST SOUTH OF MISAWA THEN EXIT BACK INTO THE
PACIFIC OCEAN JUST AFTER TAU 12. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 45KTS AT TAUS
24-48. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND TRANSFORM INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO JUST 83NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, THE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS OVERALL A MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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Oops.. No translation found.

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