ATL: 91L - Models

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cycloneye
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ATL: 91L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 03, 2021 10:38 am

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL912021 08/03/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 20 21 21 22 26 30 34 38 43 45 48 49 51 54
V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 20 21 21 22 26 30 34 38 43 45 48 49 51 54
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 19 20 20 21 21 23 24 25 26 27 29 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 12 12 13 13 10 11 15 6 2 9 11 12 11 13 10 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 3 1 0 0 6 0 8 10 8 3 1 1 -2 0 -7
SHEAR DIR 78 51 34 43 51 109 138 152 146 230 274 282 302 305 304 308 294
SST (C) 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.0 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.6 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 124 120 115 110 108 109 106 104 106 108 111 116 121 123 125 126 127
ADJ. POT. INT. 117 114 109 103 101 101 99 97 100 100 103 107 111 112 113 114 115
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 6 6 7 7 8 8
700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 79 75 69 64 63 52 49 42 42 39 41 41 42 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 48 37 40 27 29 29 50 68 37 24 -18 -17 -47 -42 -54 -35 -27
200 MB DIV 15 -6 27 37 30 32 44 33 15 2 -8 -45 3 -19 -3 -6 -11
700-850 TADV -8 -5 -4 -3 -2 2 4 10 19 24 32 32 25 18 3 -6 -15
LAND (KM) 722 713 732 753 804 939 1164 1373 1639 1879 2144 2322 2219 2168 1991 1784 1565
LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.6 14.5 15.3 16.0 17.3 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.8 21.5 22.1 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 23.9 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.9 25.9 27.8 30.0 32.7 35.1 37.7 40.2 42.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 8 8 9 11 12 13 12 13 12 12 10 10 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 6 11 15

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -10. -11. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 18. 23. 25. 28. 29. 31. 34.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.9 23.9

** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 08/03/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.1% 3.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 1.4% 1.7% 0.2%
Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 08/03/2021 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 19 20 21 21 22 26 30 34 38 43 45 48 49 51 54
18HR AGO 20 19 18 19 20 20 21 25 29 33 37 42 44 47 48 50 53
12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 18 19 23 27 31 35 40 42 45 46 48 51
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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