EPAC: KEVIN - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 92, 2021080618, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1030W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 130, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015, SPAWNINVEST, ep762021 to ep922021,

[captainbarbossa19]

The EPAC simply will not slow down. I am thinking when it does finally stop, it's going to be super quiet. This will probably be Kevin eventually.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1423768810960588805

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 070006
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 06/2330Z

C. 15.9N

D. 103.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF
1.0. SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED CENTER RELOCATED TO
NW OF PREV PSN USING 2325Z SSMIS PASS. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED
ON PT DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922021 08/06/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 36 46 56 65 76 81 89 91 89 82 76 68 62
V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 36 46 56 65 76 81 89 91 89 82 76 68 62
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 33 38 44 50 55 55 51 43 35 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 23 18 15 15 17 15 13 14 15 18 12 9 10 9 5 3 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 -2 0 -3 -1 -1 2 4 3 5 3 0
SHEAR DIR 66 69 46 42 57 59 58 52 45 58 57 42 48 67 43 16 295
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.2 25.1 24.4 22.3 21.7
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 153 152 150 149 148 142 138 134 131 126 115 109 87 81
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -52.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 83 84 84 86 85 86 85 84 85 84 83 80 78 70 68 61 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 14 18 22 28 30 31 30 28 25 21
850 MB ENV VOR -13 2 4 -6 2 19 12 27 43 45 72 76 84 81 70 47 42
200 MB DIV 73 89 113 98 93 102 87 122 112 139 126 44 12 -5 -13 -6 6
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -4 -10 -14 -7 -9 -1 -4 1 -2 0
LAND (KM) 425 433 441 464 477 524 553 615 701 705 665 660 667 733 836 1001 1251
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.9 18.9 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.7 104.3 105.0 105.6 106.8 108.0 109.4 110.8 112.2 113.5 114.7 116.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 10 12 15 15 15
HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 20 18 16 15 14 9 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37. 37. 36. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 19. 24. 32. 33. 32. 27. 23. 17. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 36. 45. 56. 61. 69. 71. 69. 63. 56. 48. 42.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 103.0

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 08/06/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.10 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -1.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.4% 12.0% 4.3% 2.1% 1.4% 10.7% 50.2% 37.2%
Bayesian: 0.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 6.8%
Consensus: 0.5% 4.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.5% 3.7% 17.0% 14.7%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 08/06/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show some signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern
Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form late
this weekend or early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS/ECMWF keep this pretty slop. This may be fairly close to genesis but realistically this is another Guilermo.

[Sciencerocks]

Close to being upgraded

[Yellow Evan]

This looks almost classifiable already which is remarkable given how gradual and broad this was modeled to be. With that said, this is also gaining latitude fast.

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression
is expected to form over the weekend or early next week while
moving westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

[Kingarabian]

Uh this should be classified.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 070554
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 07/0530Z

C. 15.9N

D. 104.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...7/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. 6 HR AVG
DT=2.8. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO RECENT CONVECTIVE
BURST.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

The latest satellite derived wind data indicated that the low
pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo,
Mexico, has become better defined overnight. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with the system continue to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form today or Sunday while it moves westward or west-northwestward
at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[NDG]

Another EPAC system that is struggling which the GFS had it to be almost a hurricane by now 6 days ago.

[Yellow Evan]

Another EPAC system that is struggling which the GFS had it to be almost a hurricane by now 6 days ago.

What? This is developing faster than expected.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 071152
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 07/1130Z

C. 15.9N

D. 105.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 4/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.5. THE 24
HR DEVELOPING TREND RESULTS IN DEVELOPING. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. FT
IS BASED ON PT DUE TO BANDING FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL