WPAC: OMAIS - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

JTWC ain't giving up, maybe for continuity sake just like Fred.

[Hayabusa]

Is this HWRF just being HWRF or it may be onto something

[mrbagyo]

The anemic circulation is still alive (and it looks a little north of the JTWC's position - it might pass between Tinian and Rota)

[Hayabusa]

It fell below JTWC warning criteria but they still continue.

WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 13.6N 149.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 20 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 286 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 16 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE, AND IS NOW
ASSESSED AS BEING BELOW JTWC WARNING INTENSITY. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE BROAD OUTLINES OF
THE GENERAL CIRCULATION, THOUGH AT PRESENT THERE IS NO DISCREET LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN AVAILABLE IMAGERY. THERE
ARE MULTIPLE SMALL CENTERS OF ROTATION (SPINNERS) TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION
CENTER BUT THESE ARE NOT ASSESSED AS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. A
160557Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN A LINEAR BAND TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE ASSESSED
LLCC, AND HELPED REFINE THE INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER, WITH THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE SPINNERS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 20 KNOTS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. NO
AGENCIES ARE CURRENTLY PROVIDING AN INTENSITY FIX, AND THE REDUCED
INTENSITY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A 152150Z ASCAT-A PASS WHICH SHOWED
A MAXIMUM OF 20-24 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER, WITH ONLY 10-15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. ANALYSIS OF THE VISIBLE
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
LIES DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE LLCC, WITH CIRRUS BLOWOFF MOVING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SIDE, AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE WEST
SIDE. THE PRESENCE OF FLARING CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE AND
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION TO THE EAST SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF THIS
INVERTED RIDGE, WITH CONVERGENCE AND DRY AIR TO THE EAST AND
DIVERGENT, MOIST FLOW ON THE WEST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 160250Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: LOW
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN MOVED TO THE NORTH OF GUAM.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: WHILE THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED
TO BELOW THE JTWC WARNING THRESHOLD, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO
REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THUS
WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED. TD 16W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24, THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR AS IT REORIENTS.
WHILE THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY OR
STEERING MECHANISM, THE RECENT TRACK MOTION HAS BEEN
WEST-NORTHWEST, STEADILY GAINING LATITUDE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
AND THUS THE FORECAST TRACK NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OF GUAM. THE LATEST ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SYSTEM MAY BE TURNING ONTO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK, BUT IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK COULD BE
NECESSARY. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE PERSISTENT MODERATE SHEAR, DRY
AIR ABOVE 500 MB AND UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE, THE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE,
REDUCING SHEAR AND INCREASING OUTFLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
SYSTEM TO BEGIN A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, PEAKING AT 75 KNOTS AT TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS TIGHTLY
PACKED WITH A PASSAGE JUST NORTH OF GUAM PRIOR TO TAU 24.
THEREAFTER MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TO A MODEST 130 NM AT TAU 72. IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FURTHER WITH A GROUP
CONSISTING OF NAVGEM, COAMPS-TC (GFS AND NAVGEM), GALWEM AND THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TAKING A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, WHILE THE GFS,
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF TAKE THE TRACK
MORE EQUATORWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE SOUTHERN GROUPING,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 72 IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE INITIAL
POSITION AND TRACK, AND LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 120. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO, WITH LITTLE TO NO
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24, THEN STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST MATCHES THE SHAPE OF THE CONSENSUS
MEAN, BUT REMAINS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

I see the GFS and CMC no longer support a typhoon scenario out of this, perhaps not even a decent tropical storm. I wonder what has changed? Could the recent eruption of an underwater volcano altered the state of the atmosphere?

[Hayabusa]

Convection has sprouted again hmmm

[Hayabusa]

And HWRF is continually showing a strong typhoon

[Hayabusa]

[Kingarabian]

Idk anymore in regards to 16W.

[Hayabusa]

JMA is back to analyzing a TD after it was withdrawn 18 hours ago.

WWJP25 RJTD 170000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 14N 145E WNW SLOWLY.

[dexterlabio]

At this point only the HWRF is liking this one. I don't know what the rest of this month holds for the WPAC, but I'm kinda set to go into hibernate mode and return in the last quarter of the year for some rogue La Nina typhoons.

[Hayabusa]

At this point only the HWRF is liking this one. I don't know what the rest of this month holds for the WPAC, but I'm kinda set to go into hibernate mode and return in the last quarter of the year for some rogue La Nina typhoons.

Well GFS is showing a system just after 16W and another one through the end of August as the MJO is coming back into this basin, but I ain't buying it (as only the GFS is showing it) until we're done with 16W assuming it would still show those model storms at that time.

[Hayabusa]

Final warning... but until the HWRF stops showing a strong system and became inline with the globals I'm not thinking it's over yet.

17AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
61 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF WEAK, UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION
THAT WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPOSITE
RADAR IMAGERY AND A 170344Z 165 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT SHALLOW CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER, ALBEIT
DISORGANIZED, CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE COMBINATION
OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY LEND ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 20 KTS IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL LACK OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH VERY
WARM SST VALUES (31-32 CELSIUS) OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS). ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
FROM RIDGING TO THE NORTH IS FURTHER HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TD 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE DUE TO THE
CONTINUED MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, AND LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK, HOWEVER THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
SPECIFICALLY, THE HWRF AND COAMPS MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT SYSTEM
INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 25 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48, HOWEVER GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT DEPICT THIS INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO. THIS REFLECTS
THE CURRENT COMPLEX AND UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THAT,
IN ADDITION TO THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER WESTWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 170830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/170830Z-180600ZAUG2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170751ZAUG2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 17AUG21 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 143.9E, APPROXIMATELY 61 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 20
KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 170900) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TD 16W) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 13.5N 143.3E, APPROXIMATELY 61 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSON
AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 170344Z
ATMS 165 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT SHALLOW CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH
VERY WARM SST VALUES (31-32 CELSIUS) OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 16W WILL NOT
REINTENSIFY, HOWEVER, THE HWRF AND COAMPS MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT
INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 25 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. MINIUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 170900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like JTWC just waited for it to pass Guam before ceasing warnings.

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

HWRF still showing a strong typhoon, and JTWC issued a TCFA again.

[Hayabusa]

Back to warning after 2 days

WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.4N 132.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 562 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TD 16W (SIXTEEN) HAS REGENERATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION BEGAN DEVELOPING ONCE MORE OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT APPROXIMATELY 190600Z, AND HAS
PERSISTED THROUGH THE 191200Z HOUR. CLOUD TOP TEMPS HAVE COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY, AND HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME OVERSHOOTING TOPS, INDICATING THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING
INTENSIFICATION. WHILE THE CONVECTION SIGNATURE IS VERY
SYMMETRICAL, THE OVERALL SURFACE WIND FIELD IS HIGHLY ASYMMETRICAL,
AS CONFIRMED BY A PARTIAL 191218Z ASCAT-B PASS, WHICH SHOWED 15-20
KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED 25-30 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO AN AREA
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST-SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO AN OBSCURED LLCC
AND THE LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
MULTI-AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0 IN LIGHT OF THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EARLIER IN THE DAY, MODERATE
TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WAS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE CORE, HOWEVER OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN HAS MODIFIED, WITH A ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER TOP OF TD
16W, LEADING TO MUCH LOWER SHEAR AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH PROVIDING A VERY WEAK TAP
INTO SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL. A DEEP, SHARP, MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE KOREAN PENINSULA, ALONG THE
RYUKU CHAIN, TO THE LUZON STRAIT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED EAST OF JAPAN.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.0 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T1.0 - 25 KTS
KNES: T1.0 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: LOW
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE AFTER REGENERATION AND ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR THROUGH TAU 48, THEN TURN
NORTH BY TAU 72 AS IT APPROACHES A BREAK IN THE STR, THEN
ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST ALONG THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR AND A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE
ALOFT TRACKS ALONG WITH THE LLCC, PROVIDING A SOURCE OF WEAK RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LOW VWS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF ROUGHLY ONE
T-NUMBER PER DAY, PEAKING AT 40 KNOTS BY TAU 48. WHILE OVERALL
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE, THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ASYMMETRIC, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM. THE SHARP TROUGH
CURRENTLY NEAR THE RYUKUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH OR EAST BUT THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT WILL
SERVE AS A WALL UPON WHICH TD 16W WILL ULTIMATELY MEET ITS DEMISE.
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, TD 16W WILL MOVE UNDER THESE STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT, EXPERIENCE DRAMATICALLY INCREASED VWS
AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT, LEADING TO FAIRLY RAPID DISSIPATION NO LATER
THAN TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODEST AGREEMENT ON THE
RECURVE SCENARIO, WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BEING THE MAJOR
CONTRIBUTOR TO UNCERTAINTY THROUGH TAU 72, AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AFTER RECURVING.
THE UKMET ENSEMBLE IS THE LEFT OUTLIER WHILE ECMWF IS THE RIGHT
OUTLIER, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 160 NM AT TAU 48. AFTER
CROSSING THE RIDGE AXIS, GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE ACCELERATE THE
SYSTEM EXCESSIVELY FAST, WHILE THE UKMET ENSEMBLE DOES NOT SHOW A
RECURVE, LEADING TO A SPREAD OF 630 NM AT TAU 96. THE JTWC TRACK
LIES ON THE LEFT EDGE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 72, THEN
JUST AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN BY TAU 96. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS RUN, WITH
THE MAJORITY OF MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST,
WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 48, THEN WEAKENS
THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE MEAN THROUGH TAU 96. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK IS MEDIUM TRENDING TO LOW AFTER TAU 72. CONFIDENCE IN
THE INTENSITY IS MEDIUM IN THE NEAR-TERM, TRENDING TO HIGH
THEREAFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

[Sciencerocks]