WPAC: OMAIS - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

000
ACPN50 PHFO 091717
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Mon Aug 9 2021

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

An elongated area of low pressure located around 1400 miles
southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions should become less favorable
for development as this system moves west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster TS

[Sciencerocks]

[Ubuntwo]

10% for this is honestly absurd. It's been a while since ASCAT hit but this looks much more organized than Kevin, circulation and all.

[Kingarabian]

10% for this is honestly absurd. It's been a while since ASCAT hit but this looks much more organized than Kevin, circulation and all.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/874437700776783873/goes17_truecolor_91C_202108091835.gif?width=936&height=676

Yeah unfortunately the CPHC is very conservative. Maybe they''ll raise the odds when it develops a core an an eye becomes apparent.

[Chris90]

This looks good and is probably worthy of classification. It's getting ready to move into the WPAC though so it'll be out of the CPHC area of responsibility very soon.

Also, there's another area that seems to have some spin and convection just to the east of 91C, over there around 167-168W. Central Pacific is managing to be mildly interesting in a down year.

[Yellow Evan]

An elongated area of low pressure located around 1500 miles
southwest of Lihue, Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Because this system will be exiting the Central
Pacific shortly, there is little chance of development of in the
Central Pacific basin. Once the system crosses the Date Line, see
the Tropical Weather Advisory issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center for information on development chances in the West Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

This is a tropical cyclone regardless of what happened the CPHC thinks. Also not sure why SAB hasn’t noticed it.

[Kingarabian]

An elongated area of low pressure located around 1500 miles
southwest of Lihue, Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Because this system will be exiting the Central
Pacific shortly, there is little chance of development of in the
Central Pacific basin. Once the system crosses the Date Line, see
the Tropical Weather Advisory issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center for information on development chances in the West Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Producing disorganized showers and elongated lol. This should've gotten a CPAC name.

[AlphaToOmega]

Here is the best track data for Invest 91C

CP, 91, 2021080700, , BEST, 0, 77N, 1670W, 15, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 60, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 91, 2021080706, , BEST, 0, 78N, 1678W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 60, 40, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 91, 2021080712, , BEST, 0, 80N, 1684W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 60, 40, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 91, 2021080718, , BEST, 0, 88N, 1688W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 60, 40, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
CP, 91, 2021080800, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1694W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 60, 40, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
CP, 91, 2021080806, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1705W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 50, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
CP, 91, 2021080812, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1719W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 50, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
CP, 91, 2021080818, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1730W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 50, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 91, 2021080900, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1740W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 50, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 91, 2021080906, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1751W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 50, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
CP, 91, 2021080912, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1764W, 20, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 50, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

According to this, Invest 91C never exceeded 25 knots in terms of maximum sustained wind speeds, so it probably would have not received a name regardless of whether it were a tropical cyclone or not. There is also post-season analysis.

[Yellow Evan]

CPHC misses systems like this all the time. This is consistent with the track record of being very conservative to upgrade.

[aspen]

Jeez this has to be the worst miss I’ve ever seen. You can early see the LLC with rather persistent convection, outflow, and banding. What’s next? Giving a Cat 1 with an eye a 40/40 and saying it’s “showing signs of organization”?

[Kingarabian]

It would make more sense if they transferred it to the JTWC with 80/90 odds. It's going to look weird when the JTWC instantly puts out a TCFA on what was supposed to be a 0/0 system.

[Yellow Evan]

Jeez this has to be the worst miss I’ve ever seen. You can early see the LLC with rather persistent convection, outflow, and banding. What’s next? Giving a Cat 1 with an eye a 40/40 and saying it’s “showing signs of organization”?

Not even close to the biggest miss.



This was a tropical cyclone that had just been *named*.

[aspen]

Jeez this has to be the worst miss I’ve ever seen. You can early see the LLC with rather persistent convection, outflow, and banding. What’s next? Giving a Cat 1 with an eye a 40/40 and saying it’s “showing signs of organization”?

Not even close to the biggest miss.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/869282731069173800/1989052S27233.png

This was a tropical cyclone that had just been *named*.

Only one word can encapsulate the magnitude of this failure:

Bruh

Was that a system that formed in the South Pacific between 180-140W?

[AlphaToOmega]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/530/Da847k.gif

With that amount of banding, outflow, convection, and a closed low, this would have been named in the East Pacific or the Atlantic.

[Yellow Evan]

Jeez this has to be the worst miss I’ve ever seen. You can early see the LLC with rather persistent convection, outflow, and banding. What’s next? Giving a Cat 1 with an eye a 40/40 and saying it’s “showing signs of organization”?

Not even close to the biggest miss.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/869282731069173800/1989052S27233.png

This was a tropical cyclone that had just been *named*.

Only one word can encapsulate the magnitude of this failure:

Bruh

Was that a system that formed in the South Pacific between 180-140W?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988%E2%8 ... one_Hinano

No, it actually formed near 130W during the middle of the second strongest La Nina on record.

[Hayabusa]

It's about to cross to the WPAC, 18Z JMA (analysis from 7 hours ago) is already showing it on their weather maps

WWJP27 RJTD 091800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 091800.
WARNING VALID 101800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1012 HPA NEAR 11N 179W WEST 10 KT.

00Z best track it has already crossed

91C.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.12.1N.179.7E

[Hayabusa]

It would make more sense if they transferred it to the JTWC with 80/90 odds. It's going to look weird when the JTWC instantly puts out a TCFA on what was supposed to be a 0/0 system.

yeah and they did

WTPN21 PGTW 100130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91C)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 179.7W TO 13.3N 174.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 179.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91C) IS LOCATED NEAR
12.1N 179.7E, APPROXIMATELY 740NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091641Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-
15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91C WILL
TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, BUT SPLIT REGARDING
INTENSIFICATION, WITH ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND NAVGEM/GFS
REMAINING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110130Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WWJP25 RJTD 100600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 12N 180E WEST 10 KT.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wow see it’s been upgraded to a TD