ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

saved loop

[ConvergenceZone]

Unless Grace strengthens more than currently forecast we'll be into the G storm and latter half of August with just a small June Cat. 1 hurricane.

Henri not forecasted to become a hurricane and Grace forecasted to barely make hurricane status at 75 mph. Definitely the conditions are not great in the Atlantic basin, but it is only August 16th, so it’s not expected at this point.

After Grace, the rest of August looks quiet and hopefully it will be a quiet September and October and this season can be done with......

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Over the past hour or so, there's been a pretty consistent swath of hurricane-force (and greater) radar velocities at around 2.5kft to 3kft, particularly on the north side of the storm between Panama City and Blountstown. At times, some areas of this larger swath have even managed to hit above 95 mph. Based upon the convection and the strength of the reflectivity in this area, I assume that at least some of these winds are making it down to the surface in the form of gusts. If so, then there's some evidence that Fred could have been nearly hurricane-strength at landfall (or at least had a very potent boundary layer), though likely hard to argue against the recon data that pretty firmly supported 50-55kt. Unfortunately, this area is relatively devoid of reliable surface observations (but thankfully also devoid of a large human population), so that assumption will likely remain unproven.

Regardless, it's quite interesting and surprisingly to see the uptick of radar velocities and the improvement on both radar and satellite imagery after landfall. I don't think any models suggested that this sort of temporary brown-ocean effect was possible, but perhaps a combination of saturated ground water, the flatness of the terrain, and the diurnal cycle over land helped propel Fred to a slightly higher impact and intensity over land than may have been previously anticipated.

As a more personal aside, I started getting the very beginning of the outer bands earlier this afternoon, with a short downpour or two and some mild gusts. It's going to be a rainy few days for me up here.

[storminabox]

Unless Grace strengthens more than currently forecast we'll be into the G storm and latter half of August with just a small June Cat. 1 hurricane.

Henri not forecasted to become a hurricane and Grace forecasted to barely make hurricane status at 75 mph. Definitely the conditions are not great in the Atlantic basin, but it is only August 16th, so it’s not expected at this point.

After Grace, the rest of August looks quiet and hopefully it will be a quiet September and October and this season can be done with......

Kinda doubt that but would be welcome after last year

[ElectricStorm]

Unless Grace strengthens more than currently forecast we'll be into the G storm and latter half of August with just a small June Cat. 1 hurricane.

Henri not forecasted to become a hurricane and Grace forecasted to barely make hurricane status at 75 mph. Definitely the conditions are not great in the Atlantic basin, but it is only August 16th, so it’s not expected at this point.

After Grace, the rest of August looks quiet and hopefully it will be a quiet September and October and this season can be done with......

Wave SW of Cape Verde already has some model support and there's waves lined up behind it too. I highly doubt the rest of August will be quiet

[IcyTundra]

Unless Grace strengthens more than currently forecast we'll be into the G storm and latter half of August with just a small June Cat. 1 hurricane.

Henri not forecasted to become a hurricane and Grace forecasted to barely make hurricane status at 75 mph. Definitely the conditions are not great in the Atlantic basin, but it is only August 16th, so it’s not expected at this point.

After Grace, the rest of August looks quiet and hopefully it will be a quiet September and October and this season can be done with......

I don't think so but I certainly wouldn't mind this happening.

[Sciencerocks]

[TallyTracker]

We just had a potent band come through a few minutes ago in Tallahassee. Nearly knocked my power out. I checked the City of Tallahassee app and about 6200 customers are without power now in the area. I have to imagine it’s much worse closer to the center and the coast.

[HurricaneBelle]

As often happens with landfalling storms on the northern Gulf coast, the circulation seems to have tightened up and this radar shot almost hints at an eye-like feature having just crossed I-10:

[TallyTracker]

Training rain band is set up over Perry and Taylor County, FL. Those guys got inundated during Elsa and have had river flood warnings ever since. They certainly don’t need this extra rain.

[SconnieCane]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1427359882144063494/photo/1


Model verification for Fred

So for a real S. Fl. threat, look for an early consensus on OBX landfall, or OTS?

[Sciencerocks]

[EquusStorm]

Nice northerly breeze today here west of Fred's remnants. Concerned about the flash flooding risk across western NC today; don't think the impacts are over just yet

[Sciencerocks]

[TallyTracker]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/2482/ks7PnZ.gif

Fred has clearly decoupled now as expected. I saw the flash flood forecasts are now in the high probability range in the southern Appalachians of NC.

[ElectricStorm]

The tornado event from Fred has really ramped up today. The SPC has now put up an enhanced risk for tornadoes for the Carolinas. I haven't seen many enhanced risks for TC's so it's kinda a big deal. There was at least one PDS warning earlier and several confirmed touchdowns throughout the day so far. Hopefully everyone stays safe.

[AlphaToOmega]

Map of Fred
Interesting how it became a tropical depression so far inland

[cycloneye]

Devastation from Fred Remnants.

 https://twitter.com/CodyAlcorn/status/1428435642468511747

[cycloneye]

35 people are missing after the Fred floodings in NC. Hopefully, the authorities find them alive.

https://watchers.news/2021/08/19/35-mis ... NQhYD7qiMM

[AlphaToOmega]

The WPC has stopped issuing advisories on the Remnants of Fred.