ATL: FRED - Models

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#561 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 15, 2021 4:53 pm

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#562 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 15, 2021 6:09 pm

18Z HWRF
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#563 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:48 pm

00z GFS is considerably stronger with Fred. Looks to be a minimal hurricane with MSLP ~984mb by 18z tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#564 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:49 pm

GFS is substantially stronger w/ a hurricane. Watches should be posted at 2, IMO.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#565 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:50 pm

Him middle of the road cat 1 and ramping up on 0z GFS right before landfall, next frame is on land at 988.

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#566 Postby JtSmarts » Sun Aug 15, 2021 11:01 pm

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Gets down to 981 before landfall.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#567 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Aug 15, 2021 11:33 pm

HMON running
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#568 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Aug 15, 2021 11:36 pm

HMON down to 990mb in 12 hours
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#569 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Aug 15, 2021 11:47 pm

HMON 985 MB landfall a bit to the west of Panama City Beach
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#570 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Aug 15, 2021 11:52 pm

HWRF also makes Fred a Cat 1. Several models now have Fred reaching hurricane strength before landfall.

EDIT: Make that a Cat 2. 974mb. Not sure about that one although I think there's a good chance it comes in as a Cat 1
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Sun Aug 15, 2021 11:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#571 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 15, 2021 11:55 pm

Yeah. Looks like Walton Co/30-A. Note its concentration with the bands north of the circulation. Looking for the hwrf IR depiction before bed as timing could matter as to how good of a punch Fred brings.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#572 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Aug 15, 2021 11:56 pm

HWRF now in Cat 2 range. I think it's overdoing it now.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#573 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Aug 16, 2021 12:00 am

HWRF is to the west of the HMON which allows Fred to stay over water for just a little bit longer than the HMON is showing.
Last edited by IcyTundra on Mon Aug 16, 2021 12:11 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#574 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 16, 2021 12:00 am

It probably is. I’m waiting to see if it’s deepening from 18 to 24 since that will be about landfall.

18 IR Sim
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1600&fh=18
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#575 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 16, 2021 12:03 am

Here it is.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1600&fh=24

Looks like a lot of people will see TS conditions tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#576 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 16, 2021 12:03 am

0Z HWRF, 970mb landfall, strong side of Cat 2 around Destin/Miramar.

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#577 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Aug 16, 2021 1:01 am

Euro 994 MB at landfall.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#578 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 16, 2021 7:02 am

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#579 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 16, 2021 7:13 am

6Z Euro
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