ATL: FRED - Models

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#541 Postby StormPyrate » Fri Aug 13, 2021 4:18 pm

tailgater wrote:The Icon model seems most reasonable to me with what we currently seeing evolve, can someone post the UKmet?

the Icon has been ... not bad so far this year
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#542 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:30 pm

HMON Still on the strong cat 1/cat 2 hurricane kick, this time to Laguna Beach, FL on the 18z

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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#543 Postby Woofde » Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:47 pm

BobHarlem wrote:HMON Still on the strong cat 1/cat 2 hurricane kick, this time to Laguna Beach, FL on the 18z

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It's been very consistent. The last 3 runs have all been 980mb to 983mb into the Panhandle.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#544 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:48 pm

The GFS handled Fred quite well overall, got to give the model some kudos. Yes it had some runs here and there that showed a possible TS into South Florida or the vicinity of and even took Fred north of Hispaniola but overall it did well. Take a look at what it had 5 days ago with one of the run’s for today’s forecast. Not bad!

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#545 Postby Cat5James » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:57 pm

gatorcane wrote:The GFS handled Fred quite well overall, got to give the model some kudos. Yes it had some runs here and there that showed a possible TS into South Florida or the vicinity of and even took Fred north of Hispaniola but overall it did well. Take a look at what it had 5 days ago with one of the run’s for today’s forecast. Not bad!

https://i.postimg.cc/zf3MhwMs/gfs-z850-vort-watl-23.png

Better then the Euro for sure... very disappointed in the "king" the past couple seasons
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#546 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:11 pm

gatorcane wrote:The GFS handled Fred quite well overall, got to give the model some kudos. Yes it had some runs here and there that showed a possible TS into South Florida or the vicinity of and even took Fred north of Hispaniola but overall it did well. Take a look at what it had 5 days ago with one of the run’s for today’s forecast. Not bad!

https://i.postimg.cc/zf3MhwMs/gfs-z850-vort-watl-23.png


We know you love the GFS Gator and will pump it up whenever possible. Nothing wrong with that!
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#547 Postby bella_may » Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:48 am

Any chance this shifts closer to MS? Inland areas here still haven’t recovered from Zeta
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#548 Postby Frank P » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:51 pm

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#549 Postby Frank P » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:52 pm

bella_may wrote:Any chance this shifts closer to MS? Inland areas here still haven’t recovered from Zeta


See above
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#550 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:54 pm

0z GFS going for strong TS/borderline cat 1 hurricane with Fred
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#551 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Aug 14, 2021 11:59 pm

Looks like HMON has a Cat 1 coming into the FL panhandle
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#552 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Aug 15, 2021 12:02 am

HMON Cat 1to the panhandle. (Stronger than 18z)

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#553 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Aug 15, 2021 12:25 am

HWRF has Fred peaking at 993mb before landfall so likely a strong TS. Fred's down but he's not out yet. I think there's a decent chance we're looking at a strong TS or Cat 1 hurricane at landfall in a few days
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#554 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:47 am

12z GFS coming in stronger with Fred at landfall. Could see this reaching 55 knots.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#555 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:49 am

12Z GFS
Image
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#556 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 15, 2021 11:43 am

Indeed, this is the strongest the GFS has had with Fred. I imagine the 12z HWRF will be even stronger than this.
This doesn't look like a heavy sheared system at landfall.

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#557 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Aug 15, 2021 11:55 am

12z HMON Still showing a cat 1 into the Panhandle, slightly stronger than last run, but not by much.

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#558 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 15, 2021 11:56 am

HWRF so far

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#559 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 15, 2021 12:12 pm

993

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#560 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 15, 2021 12:16 pm

12Z UKMET: quite a bit east of the NHC track with it crossing over the FL/GA/AL point and then moving NNE through GA rather than AL:

TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.08.2021 0 25.6N 84.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 16.08.2021 12 26.7N 86.0W 1006 36
1200UTC 16.08.2021 24 28.0N 86.1W 1004 35
0000UTC 17.08.2021 36 29.3N 85.8W 1001 38
1200UTC 17.08.2021 48 31.1N 85.0W 1005 30
0000UTC 18.08.2021 60 33.3N 84.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 18.08.2021 72 37.3N 82.3W 1012 15
0000UTC 19.08.2021 84 39.3N 80.2W 1014 25
1200UTC 19.08.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING
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