What even is this? First look at the contradiction. Second, look at them sounding the alarm...
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Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii
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Area Forecast Discussion Issued: 08/22/2021 08:35:31 PM HST
Issued: 8/22/2021, 8:35 PM HST
Synopsis
Expect significant deterioration of the weather situation across most of Hawaii through Monday as a gale low, which is the left over circulation associated with former Tropical Cyclone Linda, churns from east to west across the state. The smaller islands from Maui to Kauai appear to be in direct line to experience the worst impacts of this potent weather system. This includes strong and gusty winds, along with heavy rainfall and thunderstorms that could potentially produce flash flooding. Even the Big Island, which appears to be to the south of the low's track, will likely experience bouts of heavy rain, thunderstorms, and gusty winds.
Discussion
All eyes in the Hawaiian Islands need to focus on an very gloomy forecast that could impact the vast majority of the population, including visitors, during the next 24 to 36 hours. Loops of satellite imagery show the very prominent circulation associated with a gale low that appears to be centered near 21.0N 154.5W, or about 90 miles east of Hana. This low, which has been moving west at about 10 mph, has a large area of thunderstorms with tops in excess of 50 thousand feet to the north of the circulation center. Outer rainbands with heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are also emanating from this low toward the west and southwest at this time. These rainbands are already impacting the portions of the northern Big Island, Maui, Lanai, and Molokai.
Gale force winds, which are sustained wind speeds of 39 mph or greater, have been observed near these thunderstorms on the north side of the low earlier today. There are likely much stronger wind gusts associated with the heavier rainbands, as well as these thunderstorms. More importantly, since this system has tropical origins, it has likely corralled significant deep moisture within its inner core. As the strong winds and the deep tropical moisture begin to interact with the islands as the night progresses, there will be a serious deterioration in the weather conditions from east to west.
Based on the latest track guidance, we believe the center of the low will be on Maui's doorstep some time after midnight HST. It will continue to bring its heavy rain and gusty winds across the rest of Maui County through early Monday morning. Unfortunately for Oahu, this means that by daybreak Monday, the weather will likely take a serious turn for the worst. Since the track of the low center could be just south of the island, flooding rains with heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds could make the morning commute very challenging. These conditions could persist for several hours, so there could be some issues with tree branches falling, clogged drains, and spotty power outages into Monday afternoon. These adverse weather conditions will also likely spread to Kauai during the daytime hours Monday, where thunderstorms could also produce flash flooding and strong gusty winds.
So the bottom line forecast is that the coverage of clouds and the intensity of the showers will increase through Monday, especially over most windward areas. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire state through Monday night. A Wind Advisory, which includes wind gusts to 50 mph, has also been issued for all of the smaller islands from Maui to Kauai. The confidence in these strong winds occurring is highest for Oahu and Kauai, which will likely be in the stronger northern semicircle of the westward moving circulation. In addition, the thunderstorms have been in the northern side of the gale low, so this may put Oahu and Kauai in some of the heaviest rainfall. Note that for Maui County, the steadily backing wind profile as the low passes will lead to highly variable conditions with some areas experiencing light or variable winds with intermittent higher wind gusts, especially in thunderstorms.
The expanding windward showers will acquire increasing coverage and depth through early Monday morning, which will bring frequent moderate to locally heavy rainfall. A flash flood threat will exist during this time, but may be relatively modest. As deeper convection and stronger forcing advances over Oahu and Kauai during the day Monday, the potential for torrential rainfall capable of producing flash flooding will increase. This will particularly be the case over windward slopes and the higher terrain. More importantly, the fairly uniform southwesterly flow aloft will give rise to the potential for the deepest convection, including any thunderstorms, to anchor along windward terrain.
Finally, as the gale low center moves to west of each of the individual islands, moist southeast flow spreading up over the islands may produce bands of heavy rain within favored zones of leeward convergence Monday evening. Looking ahead, a more typical trade wind weather will gradually return from Tuesday into mid- week.
Why not just go with a tropical storm warning from the beginning? The public takes those warnings much more seriously. Instead, they're setting up Oahu morning and afternoon traffic to be a huge debacle. Putting the public in danger since very little know that a wind advisory is up and no one knows what a gale system is. People tomorrow will be dealing with "flooding, tree branches falling, clogged drains, and spotty power outages into Monday afternoon" and won't be prepared.
If something serious happens tomorrow on any of the islands, I think the NWS head needs to be contacted and a complaint should be filed against the CPHC . This is clearly a case of "ohhh just leave it, it will go away, the wind shear will get it nothing serious is going to happen" and that clearly is not happening.
