ATL: FRED - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...CENTER OF FRED CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STORM SURGE THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF MARIANNA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from the
Okaloosa/Walton County line to the Steinhatchee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Fred will move from
western Georgia on Tuesday across the southern Appalachian Mountains
to West Virginia by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected, and Fred should
become a tropical depression by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently
reported at Marianna, Florida. A wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) was
observed at an observing site near Bainbridge, Georgia.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Indian Pass including
Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
Tropical Storm warning area for the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight
across parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and
southeast Alabama. The tornado threat will shift northward into
parts of northeast Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southern
Virginia on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...CENTER OF FRED MOVES INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF DOTHAN ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of the Florida Panhandle
has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning for the coast of the Florida Panhandle and
Florida Big Bend has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over
the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will
move across western and northern Georgia on Tuesday, across the
southern Appalachian Mountains on Tuesday night, and into the
central Appalachians by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Fred
should become a tropical depression overnight or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently
reported at the airport in the Marianna, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment on Tuesday.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1
with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Florida Gulf coast may remain
elevated throughout the high tide cycle and subside thereafter.
Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office for additional information.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts will continue
over inland portions of southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia,
and the eastern Florida Panhandle for a few more hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred affecting the coasts of Mississippi,
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle should subside overnight.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible overnight across parts of
the eastern Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia. The tornado
threat will shift northward into parts of northeastern Georgia, the
western Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...FRED WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 85.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 85.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22
km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
center of Fred will move across western and northern Georgia today,
across the southern Appalachian Mountains tonight, and into the
central Appalachians by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days and Fred is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low by tonight and merge with a frontal system on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:
Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Today

Portions of Georgia and the Southern Appalachians... 4 to 8 inches
of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are
expected.

Through Thursday

Central Appalachians including portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of
6 inches expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment today.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at

WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening
across parts of Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southwestern
Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Tropical Depression Fred. Future information on this
system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header
TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 32
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062021
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED SOUTH OF ATLANTA, GEORGIA...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS NORTH
GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...EASTERN TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 84.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...48 KM SSW OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood Watches are in effect for portions of north Georgia, the
western Carolinas, eastern Tennessee and Kentucky, and extreme
southwest Virginia.

Tornado Watches are in effect for parts of north Georgia and the
western Carolinas.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 84.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today with a
gradual acceleration to the northeast through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:
Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Today
Portions of Georgia and the Southern Appalachians... 4 to 8 inches
of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are
expected.

Through Friday
Central Appalachians including portions of the Mid-Atlantic States
as well as portions of the Northeast...2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic States
and Northeast could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated
river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists
across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the
Blue Ridge Escarpment today.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html


TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening
across parts of Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southwestern
Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Carbin

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 33.4N 84.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 35.6N 83.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 18/1200Z 38.7N 80.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 19/0000Z 40.7N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/1200Z 41.8N 75.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 20/0000Z 42.4N 73.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 20/1200Z 42.6N 71.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 33
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062021
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW TORNADOES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 83.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WSW OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood Watches are in effect for portions of north Georgia, the
western Carolinas, eastern Tennessee and Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, West Virginia, extreme southwest and northern
Virginia, Washington D.C., parts of Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New
York.

Tornado Watches are posted over much of South Carolina, western
North Carolina, and southwest Virginia.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
were located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 83.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:

Through Tonight...
Southern Appalachians...additional 1 to 3 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches.

Thursday through Thursday night...
Central Appalachians and interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States into the Northeast...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southern and Central
Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic States, and Northeast could lead to
flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An
increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North
Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment through
tonight.


TORNADOES:
A few tornadoes are possible through this evening
across parts of Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southwestern
Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Carbin

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 34.7N 83.9W 20 KT 25 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 37.5N 82.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 18/1800Z 39.6N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 19/0600Z 41.5N 76.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/1800Z 42.4N 73.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 20/0600Z 42.8N 70.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 34
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062021
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...FRED MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHILE
SLOWLY TRANSITIONING INTO A NON-TROPICAL LOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.6N 82.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SW OF HARRISBURG PENNSYLVANIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood Watches are in effect for portions of the southern and
central Appalachians as well as sections of the adjacent Piedmont.

Tornado Watches are posted over the western Carolinas and southwest
Virginia.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 82.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35
km/h) and this motion is expected to become northeasterly overnight
and Wednesday before decelerating and taking on a more easterly
track on Thursday while moving through southern New England.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional weakening is possible over the next couple of days
as it tracks through the eastern United States.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:

Tonight into Wednesday morning...
Southern Appalachians...additional 1 to 3 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches.

Wednesday through Thursday night...
Central Appalachians and interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States into the Northeast...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southern and Central
Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic States, and Northeast could lead to
flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An
increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North
Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment through
tonight.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html


TORNADOES:
A tornado or two is possible tonight across parts of the western
Carolinas and southwestern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 36.6N 82.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/1200Z 38.9N 80.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/0000Z 41.4N 77.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 19/1200Z 42.5N 74.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 20/0000Z 42.9N 72.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 20/1200Z 43.1N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 35
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062021
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...FRED MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHILE
SLOWLY TRANSITIONING INTO A NON-TROPICAL LOW...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 81.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and Flash Flood Watches are in effect for portions of
the southern and central Appalachians as well as sections of the
adjacent Piedmont and Cumberland Plateau.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 81.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) and
this motion is expected to slow down as the system turns towards
the east over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Tonight...
Eastern Carolinas...additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated
maximum storm totals of 6 inches.

Through Thursday night...
Upper Ohio Valley, the northern Mid-Atlantic States into New
England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals
of 6 inches expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic
States, and New England could lead to flash, urban, small stream and
isolated river flooding impacts.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Depression Fred, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html


TORNADOES:
A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the inland
Mid-Atlantic region.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 38.6N 81.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/1800Z 40.5N 80.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 19/0600Z 42.0N 77.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/1800Z 43.1N 74.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/0600Z 43.3N 70.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 20/1800Z 43.5N 67.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred Advisory Number 36
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062021
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED MOVING NORTHEAST FROM WEST
VIRGINIA AND PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN FROM PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW YORK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 80.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and Flash Flood Watches are in effect from West Virginia,
Maryland, and parts of Virginia, northward across Pennsylvania,
Upstate New York, and parts of Vermont.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred
was located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 80.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph
and this motion is expected to continue today with a gradual turn
east tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:

Through Tonight...
Eastern Carolinas...additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated
maximum storm totals of 6 inches.

Through Thursday night...
Upper Ohio Valley, the northern Mid-Atlantic States into New
England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals
of 6 inches expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and
Northeast could lead to flash, urban, small stream and
isolated river flooding impacts.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Depression Fred, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

TORNADOES:
A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the inland
Mid-Atlantic region.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Carbin/Churchill

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 39.5N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
12H 19/0000Z 41.4N 78.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 19/1200Z 42.4N 75.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/0000Z 43.1N 72.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/1200Z 43.2N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred Advisory Number 37
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062021
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED MOVING NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM WSW OF BINGHAMTON NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and Flash Flood Watches are in effect from parts of Virginia,
Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, and across interior New
England.

A Tornado Watch is in effect from northern Virginia and parts of
Maryland across much of central and eastern Pennsylvania.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred
was located near latitude 40.8 North, longitude 79.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:

Through Thursday night...
Across the Northeast from much of Pennsylvania and New York into
New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm
totals of 6 inches expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic States
and Northeast could lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream
and isolated river flooding impacts.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Depression Fred, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html


TORNADOES:
Isolated tornadoes are possible across parts of the inland
Mid-Atlantic region this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Carbin

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 40.8N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 19/0600Z 42.1N 76.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 19/1800Z 42.6N 73.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/0600Z 43.6N 70.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred Advisory Number 38
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062021
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED MOVING NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.5N 76.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SW OF BINGHAMTON NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flash Flood Watches are in effect for parts of Pennsylvania, New
York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and portions of southern Maine.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred
was located near latitude 41.5 North, longitude 76.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 14
mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:

Through Thursday night...
Across the Northeast from eastern Pennsylvania and central-eastern
New York into New England...1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated
maximum storm totals of 5 inches expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Northeast could lead to
considerable flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding
impacts.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

TORNADOES:
Isolated tornadoes will be possible from eastern Pennsylvania, New
Jersey, and southern New York into southern New England.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Hurley

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 41.5N 76.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 19/1200Z 42.5N 74.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/0000Z 43.4N 71.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/1200Z 43.9N 68.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred Advisory Number 39
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062021
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW
YORK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF BINGHAMTON NEW YORK
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF ALBANY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flash Flood Watches are in effect for parts of New York and central
New England.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred
was located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 76.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 17
mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to slow down through
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours as it
crosses southern New England.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches from New York
across New England through tonight. This rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

TORNADOES:
A tornado is possible this morning over southeastern New
York, Long Island, or southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 42.0N 76.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 19/1800Z 43.1N 73.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/0600Z 44.0N 69.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/1800Z 44.7N 66.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred Advisory Number 40
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062021
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.0N 74.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WNW OF ALBANY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flash Flood Watches are in effect for parts of New York and central
New England.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred
was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 74.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 15
mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches across
eastern New York and New England through tonight. This rainfall
could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts.

The flood risk associated with Fred is expected to diminish by
early Friday.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

TORNADOES:
A brief tornado is possible over southeastern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Churchill/Carbin

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 43.0N 74.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 20/0000Z 43.7N 72.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1200Z 44.5N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred Advisory Number 41
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062021
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED WILL MOVE TO THE COAST OF MAINE
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.0N 72.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF PORTSMOUTH NEW HAMPSHIRE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of western Maine.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred
was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 72.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 14
mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred is expected to produce an additional 1
to 3 inches of rain through tonight across parts of interior New
England, from Vermont and New Hampshire into Maine. This rainfall
could lead to localized flash, urban, small stream and isolated
river flooding impacts.

As Fred continues to transition to an extratropical cyclone and
move toward the Canadian Maritime Provinces, the threat of heavy
rain will end across Maine by early Friday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Carbin

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 43.0N 72.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 20/0600Z 43.7N 70.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1800Z 44.2N 68.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred Advisory Number 42
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062021
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF MAINE BY
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.9N 71.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WSW OF PORTSMOUTH NEW HAMPSHIRE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
All Flash Flood Watches over portions of eastern New England have
expired.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred
was located near latitude 42.9 North, longitude 71.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 13
mph (20 km/h), and its forward motion is expected to gradually
increase overnight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred may produce 1 to 2 inches of
additional rain across Downeast Maine overnight before moving
offshore.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Weather Prediction
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Hurley

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 42.9N 71.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 20/1200Z 43.4N 69.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP