ATL: FRED - Advisories

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 76.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to
Ocean Reef including Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 76.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of
eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida
Keys and southern Florida on Saturday, and near the west coast of
Florida on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From today into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and north
towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream
flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area in Florida beginning tonight or early Saturday. Wind
gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas during the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...FRED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 76.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay has
been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward from Bonita
Beach to Englewood, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 76.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of
eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida
Keys on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and
Fred could become a tropical storm again later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From today into Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected
across the Florida Keys, in the warning area, on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Florida beginning Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Fred continues to produce heavy rains across eastern Cuba and
portions of the southeastern Bahamas this morning. However, despite
the areas of heavy rain, the system remains poorly organized. Most
of the deep convection is located to the east of the center and
there is little evidence of banding features. The last pass by the
Air Force Hurricane Hunters several hours ago and earlier ASCAT-A
data indicated that maximum winds were around 30 kt. Since the storm
has changed little in appearance since that time, the initial
intensity is held at that value. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunters will be investigating Fred later this morning, and the data
both planes collect will be helpful in assessing Fred's intensity
and structure.

Fred continues to move west-northwestward at about 9 kt. This
motion should persist for about another day as the storm continues
to move in the flow on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge.
After that time, a turn to the northwest and then the north is
predicted as Fred moves around the western side of the ridge. Based
on this expected motion, the storm should track just north of
eastern and central Cuba through tonight and near or across the
Florida Keys on Saturday. After that time, there is more spread in
the models due to the uncertainty in exactly where and when Fred
makes the northwest and north turns. The range in the model
solutions this cycle span from over the Florida peninsula to the
east-central Gulf of Mexico. Since the typically best-performing
models ended up almost on top of the previous prediction, very
little change to the track was required.

The system is still battling about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind
shear, which is part of the reason why the convective pattern is
disheveled. The shear is only expected to lessen slightly during
the next couple of days, but since the environmental moisture is
abundant and SSTs are very warm, gradual strengthening seems likely
as Fred moves across the Florida Keys and then near or offshore of
the west coast of Florida this weekend. The shear is expected to
increase again before Fred makes its final landfall along the
Florida panhandle in a few days, and that will likely prevent
additional intensification. Steady weakening is expected after the
storm moves inland. The intensity guidance is in very good
agreement, and this forecast lies near the high end of the models.

It should be noted that much of the Florida peninsula is expected
to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains
and strongest winds will be.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. From today into Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal,
urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding, across southern
and central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy
rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the
Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and
Piedmont.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Florida Keys on
Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible late Saturday and
early Sunday across portions of the west coast of Florida in the
Tropical Storm Watch area. The risk of tropical storm conditions
will spread northward along the Florida west coast and to the
Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 22.0N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 22.6N 78.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 23.6N 80.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 24.8N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 26.4N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 28.1N 83.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 29.6N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 32.5N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0600Z 35.5N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...CENTER OF FRED NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 77.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 77.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A
turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of
eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys
on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later today.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1013 mb
(29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From today into Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected
across the Florida Keys, in the warning area, on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Florida beginning Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...CENTER OF FRED MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 78.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
provinces of Sancti Spiritus and Villa Clara and has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Las Tunas, Granma,
and Holguin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de
Avila, and Camaguey
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas, elsewhere in Cuba, and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings could be required for portions of these areas later
today. Interest in the Florida Panhandle should also monitor the
progress of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 78.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A
turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or near the north
coast of central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys
on Saturday, and move near or west of the west coast of the Florida
peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow
strengthening is expected, and Fred could become a tropical storm
again tonight or Saturday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1013 mb
(29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Today through Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning
Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Fred remains disorganized this morning. The low-level center,
which is currently over the barrier islands of the north coast of
Cuba, is exposed to the northwest of the main convective mass due
to moderate southwesterly vertical shear. Reports from Air Force
Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft show winds of 25-30 kt
to the northeast of the center, so the initial intensity remains
30 kt. The central pressure is 1013 mb based on a combination of
aircraft data and surface observations.

The center has jogged a bit to the left during the past several
hours, which has brought it to the Cuban coast. The longer-term
initial motion is 295/10. The cyclone should continue
west-northwestward for the next 12-24 h, followed by a turn toward
the northwest as Fred approaches the western periphery of the
subtropical ridge. This motion should take the center along the
northern coast of Cuba today, near the Florida Keys and the
southwestern coast of Florida on Saturday, and near or over the
coast of the Florida Panhandle Sunday night or Monday. After that,
a northward turn is expected as Fred moves into a weakness in the
ridge over the southeastern United States. With both the initial
position and the track guidance shifting westward since the last
advisory, the new forecast track is also nudged a little to the
west. The new track is east of the consensus models, especially
from 24-60 h, and thus some additional adjustments could occur
later today if the current model trends continue.

Fred is continuing to experience about 20 kt of westerly or
southwesterly vertical wind shear, and these conditions should
continue for at least another 24 hours. Between that and land
interaction, the intensity forecast calls for only modest
strengthening during this time. After that, there is still
relatively poor agreement on how much shear Fred will experience as
it crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the ECMWF and the UKMET
forecasting less shear than the GFS and CMC global models. Due to
the uncertainty, the intensity forecast will keep the previous peak
intensity of 45 kt. However, the intensity guidance during this
period has trended a little higher, and the 45 kt peak is now a
little below the upper edge of the guidance.

It should be noted that much of the Florida peninsula is expected
to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains,
strongest winds, and a chance of tornadoes will be.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
small stream, and exacerbated river flooding across southern and
central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain
and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast
and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred
interacts with a front in that area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible late Saturday and
early Sunday across portions of the west coast of Florida in the
Tropical Storm Watch area. The risk of tropical storm conditions
will spread northward along the Florida west coast and to the
Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 22.3N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
12H 14/0000Z 23.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 24.2N 81.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 25.6N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 27.2N 83.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 28.7N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 30.2N 85.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1200Z 33.0N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 36.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de
Avila, and Camaguey
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas, elsewhere in Cuba, and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings could be required for portions of these areas later
today. Interests in the Florida Panhandle should also monitor the
progress of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 78.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to continue moving along or near
the north coast of central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida
Keys on Saturday, and move near or west of the west coast of the
Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that,
slow strengthening is expected, and Fred could become a tropical
storm again tonight or Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Today through Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning
Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRED SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 79.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Watches
in Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas, Cuba, and in the Florida peninsula and
Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional
watches and warnings could be required for portions of the west
coast of Florida and the Florida panhandle tonight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 79.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general
motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast
track, Fred is expected to continue moving near the the north
coast of central Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower
Florida Keys on Saturday, and pass near or west of the west coast
of the Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected tonight. After that, slow
strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm
again on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Today through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning
Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Although there has been a general increase in convection
associated with Fred since this morning, the system remains
disorganized with the low-level center moving farther inland over
central Cuba. Earlier ASCAT data detected an area of 25-27 kt
winds over water to the northeast of the center, and based on that
data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt, which could be a
little generous.

Since the previous advisory, Fred has been moving nearly due
westward, but the longer-term motion is estimated to be 280/10 kt.
The cyclone is nearing the western periphery of a subtropical ridge
that is centered over the western Atlantic. This should cause Fred
to turn west-northwestward tonight, and then northwestward
on Saturday. The latest interpolated guidance that was
initialized with the more southward and westward 18Z initial
position shows a wider or more gradual northwestward turn, and
therefore has shifted significantly westward, especially in the
short term. However, the global models fields track the 850-mb
vorticity center more along the northern coast of Cuba and some of
those models suggest a center re-formation could occur on Saturday
near the north coast of Cuba or over the Straits of Florida. As a
result, the first 24-36 hours of the track forecast has been
adjusted about a degree westward, but it is not as far west as the
trackers, leaving open the possibility that a center re-formation
could occur. After that time, the NHC forecast lies along the
eastern side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the 12Z
GFS. Some additional westward adjustments may be necessary until
the track guidance stabilizes. It is worth noting that it isn't too
surprising to see these type of models shifts with a system that
remains quite disorganized.

Fred remains within an area of moderate southwesterly vertical wind
shear, and the model guidance generally indicates that this shear
will continue during the next day or so. Since it will also take
time for the system to recover after its passage over Cuba, only
gradual strengthening is indicated during the next day or two. After
that time, the system could be in a somewhat more favorable
environment, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for some
strengthening until Fred reaches the northern Gulf Coast, which now
doesn't occur until around 72 hours with the wider turn shown in
the track forecast. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the
various consensus aids, the statistical guidance, and the HWRF
model, which all generally show the system peaking in 60-72 hours.
The intensity forecast remains of lower-than-normal confidence due
to Fred's continued interaction with land.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and a chance of tornadoes will extend
far to northeast and east of the center, and those hazards are
likely to still affect portions of the Florida peninsula, despite
the recent shift in the forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
small stream, and exacerbated river flooding across southern and
central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain
and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast
and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred
interacts with a front in that area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible late Saturday and
early Sunday across portions of the west coast of Florida in the
Tropical Storm Watch area. The risk of tropical storm conditions
will spread northward along the Florida west coast and to the
Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 22.3N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/0600Z 23.0N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/1800Z 24.2N 82.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 15/0600Z 25.4N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 27.0N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 28.8N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 30.2N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 33.5N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1800Z 37.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...DISORGANIZED FRED CONTINUES TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 80.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas, Cuba, and in the Florida peninsula and
Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional
watches and warnings could be required for portions of the west
coast of Florida and the Florida panhandle tonight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 80.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general
motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast track,
Fred is expected to continue moving near the north coast of central
Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys on
Saturday, and pass near or west of the west coast of the Florida
peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. After that,
slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical
storm again on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Today through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning
Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRED CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 80.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Middle and Upper Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef has been discontinued,
including Florida Bay.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be
required for portions of the Florida panhandle on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 80.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general
motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast track,
Fred is expected to continue moving near the north coast of central
Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys on
Saturday, and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday
night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through early Saturday. After
that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again by late Saturday or Saturday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Tonight through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new
minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate
ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting Saturday
afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Interaction with land and southwesterly shear has continued to take
a toll on Fred this evening. It is very difficult to determine in
infrared satellite imagery and recent surface observations from
Cuba if a closed circulation still exists, however the system is
maintained as a tropical depression for now. Scatterometer data,
which should arrive very soon, and reconnaissance aircraft
observations on Saturday morning should provide additional
information on the system's intensity and structure.

The system still appears to be moving moving westward or 280/11 kt.
There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning from the
previous advisory. The cyclone is approaching the western periphery
of a subtropical ridge extending over the western Atlantic, and Fred
should turn west-northwestward overnight, and then northwestward on
Saturday. The track guidance has again shifted westward, but the
shift is not as large as was noted on the previous cycle. The NHC
track forecast has been adjusted to the left, closer to the
consensus aids, but it still remains to the east of those models.
Some additional westward adjustments in subsequent forecasts may be
required.

As mentioned above, land interaction and southwesterly vertical
will limit any attempt of re-organization overnight, however the
system is expected to move off the northern coast of Cuba Saturday
morning and the global model guidance suggests that a center
re-formation could occur over the western portion of the Straits of
Florida. The center re-formation shown by the guidance appears
to be aided by an area of upper-level diffluent flow to the
southeast of an upper-level trough currently located over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although only a little strengthening is
indicated in the official forecast through 36 hours, the environment
could become a little more conducive on Sunday, and the NHC wind
speed forecast again calls for gradual strengthening while Fred
moves northwestward over the eastern Gulf. The updated intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of
the statistical guidance and the HCCA model. The intensity forecast
continues to be of lower-than-normal confidence given the current
disorganized structure of the system.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tonight through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed
river flooding, across southern and central Florida into the Big
Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend
into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and
central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in
the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Lower
Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

3. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Florida
Panhandle beginning on Monday. Watches may be required for a
portion of this area on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 22.7N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 23.4N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 15/0000Z 24.8N 83.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 26.3N 85.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 27.8N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 29.2N 86.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 30.6N 86.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 34.0N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/0000Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...DISORGANIZED FRED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 81.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be
required for portions of the Florida panhandle later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 81.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
to the west-northwest is expected to occur later this morning,
followed by a northwest motion by tonight. On the forecast track,
Fred is expected to pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys this
afternoon, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Sunday, and move inland over the northern Gulf coast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches
is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the
Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to
areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor
flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing
minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.

From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across the
Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting this
afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...DISORGANIZED FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 81.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be
required for portions of the Florida panhandle and Alabama later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 81.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the
northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by
Sunday night. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass west
of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over the
northern Gulf coast Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again tonight or on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches
is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the
Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to
areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor
flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing
minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.

From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across the
Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting this
afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

The interaction with the landmass of Cuba has significantly
disrupted the circulation of Fred. In fact, radar data from Cuba,
satellite images, earlier ASCAT data, and surface observations
suggest that the system is likely an open trough with the strongest
winds and deep convection occurring to the south of central Cuba.
Fred is being maintained as a tropical depression for now, but data
from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters later this morning will likely
confirm if it is a depression or not. The initial intensity is
held at 30 kt based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. Bands of
heavy rain are now spreading across the Florida Keys.

The initial motion of 295/11 kt is highly uncertain since its not
clear if Fred has a center. Even though the storm has moved farther
west than previously expected, the overall track forecast reasoning
has not changed much. Fred is expected to turn northwestward by
tonight and northward by Sunday night as the cyclone rounds the
western periphery of a subtropical ridge. The new track forecast
has been nudged to the west again to be in better agreement with the
latest model consensus aids. Based on the new track forecast, Fred
is expected to pass west of the lower Florida Keys later today and
make landfall along the western Florida Panhandle or Alabama coast
Monday night or early Tuesday.

Although Fred is very disorganized at the moment, the global models
show the circulation becoming better defined tonight or on Sunday as
the cyclone moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in slightly lower
wind shear conditions. The storm is expected to strengthen some
during the next couple of days, but significant intensification
seems unlikely as southerly shear is anticipated to increase before
the system reaches the Gulf coast on Monday. GFS and ECMWF
simulated satellite images show an asymmetric cyclone with most of
the associated convection and stronger winds on its east side while
Fred moves across the Gulf of Mexico. After landfall, steady
weakening is expected, and Fred is likely to dissipate by the middle
of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of
the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river
flooding, across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle.
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Lower
Florida Keys later today, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

3. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Florida
Panhandle and coastal Alabama beginning on Monday. Watches may be
required for a portion of this area later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 23.3N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 24.0N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 25.4N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 27.0N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 28.4N 86.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 29.8N 87.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 30.9N 87.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0600Z 34.4N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...FRED REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED NEAR WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 82.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be
required for portions of the Florida panhandle and Alabama later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the
northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by
Sunday night. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass west
of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over the
northern Gulf coast Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again tonight or on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches
is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the
Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to
areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor
flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing
minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.

From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across the
Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting this
afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...FRED DEGENERATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE...
...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 83.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches could be required for
portions of this area later in the weekend.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 23.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is
expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by Sunday
night. On the forecast track, Fred or its remnants are expected to
pass west of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over
the northern Gulf coast Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression on
Sunday, with gradual strengthening to a tropical storm expected
after the system re-develops.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL:

Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce
the following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys
and southern Florida. Across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3
to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected.
Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding
impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida
Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding
in northern Florida.

From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible in squalls
today across the Florida keys and the southern portion of the
Florida Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon through
tonight across portions of west-central and south Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

A combination of shear caused by an upper-level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico and land interaction has caused Fred to degenerate
into an open wave. Surface observations from Cuba do not show a
closed circulation, and satellite imagery shows at least two
vorticity centers embedded in a large trough. The strongest
convection is currently near and southeast of a vorticity center
near the Isle of Youth. The initial position is a mean position
between the vorticity center, and the initial intensity of 30 kt is
based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data to the
northeast of the estimated center position.

The global models forecast the upper-level trough to move northward
and weaken during the next 24 h and indicate that Fred will re-form
a closed circulation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning.
Given the strength of the upper-level trough, that forecast may
well be too bullish. However, given the agreement in the guidance,
the revised intensity forecast will call for Fred to regain
tropical cyclone status at about the 24 h point, followed by gradual
strengthening in a less than ideal upper-level wind environment
until landfall along the northern Gulf coast. After landfall, the
system should weaken and dissipate between 96-120 h.

The initial motion is a very uncertain 300/10. The system is
expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with a turn toward the
north as the system nears the northern Gulf coast in 60-72 h.
While the forecast guidance is in good agreement on this general
scenario, there is uncertainty as to where the center of Fred will
be when it re-forms. Therefore, users should not concentrate on
the details of the forecast track, which could change quite a bit
during the next 24-36 h.

Although all coastal watches and warnings are discontinued at this
time, the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly
advisories on the remnants of Fred in anticipation of
re-development and the potential need for watches and warnings on
the northern Gulf coast later in the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river
flooding, across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle.
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over
the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially from
coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.
Watches may be required for a portion of this area later in the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 23.3N 83.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...DISTURBANCE
12H 15/0000Z 24.1N 84.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...DISTURBANCE
24H 15/1200Z 25.7N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 16/0000Z 27.4N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 28.7N 87.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 30.0N 87.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 31.5N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 35.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...REMNANTS OF FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 84.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches and warnings could be
required for portions of this area tonight or Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 24.0 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest is expected tonight through Sunday night, with a turn
toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the
system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, cross
the central and northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, and move
inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression late
tonight or on Sunday, with gradual strengthening to a tropical
storm expected after the system re-develops.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce
the following rainfall amounts:

Through today...
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Through Monday...
Keys and southern Florida...3 to 5 inches.

From Sunday night into Tuesday...
The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle...3 to 7 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 10 inches.

Southern Alabama...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and southern Alabama could
lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

From Tuesday onward...
Heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of
the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and
Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through Sunday over parts
of the western Florida peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that a broad and elongated
circulation has formed in association with the remnants of Fred, and
that the convection has become more concentrated at the east end of
the elongated center. However, neither the circulation nor the
convection are organized enough to justify calling the system a
tropical cyclone at this time. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to survey the remnants of Fred this
evening to see how far the re-development has progressed.

The initial motion is a still very uncertain 300/11. The system is
expected to move northwestward around the western periphery of the
subtropical ridge, with a turn toward the north expected as the
system nears and moves inland along the northern Gulf coast in 48-60
h. The forecast guidance remains in good agreement on this general
scenario and the new NHC forecast track is close the the consensus
models. However, some adjustments to the track forecast could occur
depending on where the center of Fred re-forms. Therefore, users
should not concentrate on the details of the forecast track, which
could change quite a bit during the next day or so.

The global models are now in better agreement that the upper-level
trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that has been hindering
the development of Fred will move northward and weaken during the
next 24 h. They also indicate that Fred is likely to re-form
a well-defined closed circulation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Sunday morning. Thus, the intensity forecast now calls for Fred to
regain tropical cyclone status in about 12 h, followed by gradual
strengthening until landfall in a less than ideal upper-level wind
environment. After landfall, the system should weaken and
dissipate between 96-120 h. The new NHC intensity forecast follows
the overall trend of the intensity guidance.

Although no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect,
the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on
the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development. Watches
could be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight,
and warnings may be required on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river
flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle.
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the
Gulf of Mexico tonight or on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical
storm conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially
from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on
Monday. Watches may be required for a portion of this area
tonight, and warnings may be required on Sunday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 24.0N 84.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...DISTURBANCE
12H 15/0600Z 25.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 15/1800Z 26.6N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 28.0N 87.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 29.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 30.9N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1800Z 32.4N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1800Z 36.0N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...REMNANTS OF FRED EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 84.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches and warnings could be
required for portions of this area early Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.3 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest is expected to begin later tonight and continue
through Sunday night, with a turn toward the north expected on
Monday. On the forecast track, the system will cross the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, cross the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, and move inland along the
northern Gulf coast Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression or
tropical storm on Sunday, with gradual strengthening expected while
it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce
the following rainfall amounts:

Through today...
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Through Monday...
Keys and southern Florida...3 to 5 inches.

From Sunday night into Tuesday...
The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle...3 to 7 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 10 inches.

Southern Alabama...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and southern Alabama could
lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

From Tuesday onward...
Heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of
the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and
Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through Sunday night
over parts of the western Florida Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Deep convection has increased in association with the remnants of
Fred this evening with some lose banding noted in both satellite
imagery and radar data from Key West. Satellite imagery and surface
observations also indicate that the circulation has become a little
better defined since this afternoon, but the system still lacks a
well-defined center. Therefore, the system has not regained
tropical cyclone status yet. The initial intensity remains 30 kt
and is based on a few buoy and C-MAN observations over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Lower Florida Keys which have
reported peak winds of 25-30 kt over the past several hours. The
C-MAN site on Sand Key has reported slightly stronger winds, but
that site is elevated.

The system has moved little during the past several hours, and since
it lacks a well-defined center, the initial motion estimate is a
highly uncertain 300/08 kt. The disturbance is expected to begin a
more definitive northwestward motion overnight or Sunday morning as
it moves around the western extent of a subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic. The system is forecast to turn northward on
Monday as it nears the northern Gulf of coast. Although the track
guidance is in good agreement on the overall motion scenario, there
is some cross-track spread that appears to be related to where the
center re-forms in the short term. Overall there was some eastward
shift to the guidance envelope and the official forecast was nudged
in that direction, but it still lies to the west of the consensus
aids. The NHC track forecast is closest to the GFEX track, which is
a consensus of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models.

The upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is forecast
to weaken and move northward during the next 12-24 hours. This
should allow for a somewhat more conducive environment for the
system to regain tropical cyclone status and strengthen on Sunday.
However, continued moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear is
likely to hinder significant development, and the NHC intensity
forecast only calls for gradual strengthening through 36-48 hours.
After landfall, the system is forecast to weaken rapidly and the
global models indicate the circulation will dissipate by 96 hours.

Although no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect,
the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on
the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development. Watches
are very likely to be required for a portion of the northern
Gulf coast early Sunday, and warnings may be required later in the
day.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river
flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle.
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially
from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on
Monday. Watches will likely be required for a portion of this area
early Sunday, and warnings may be required later in the day.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 23.8N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 25.3N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 16/0000Z 26.8N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 28.3N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 29.7N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 31.4N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0000Z 33.1N 87.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 23...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Corrected to include Next Intermediate Advisory Time

...REMNANTS OF FRED TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL STORM
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 84.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
north-central Gulf coast from the Alabama/Florida border eastward
to Ochlockonee River, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Ochlockonee Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Alabama to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of the remnants of Fred. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 24.4 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a turn toward
the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system
will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, cross the
east-central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and
move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night or early
Tuesday morning.

Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is
expected to re-develop into a tropical storm later today, with
gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of
Mexico until it makes landfall.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Monday…

Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches with isolated storm
totals of 8 inches are anticipated.

Through Tuesday…

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western
Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9
inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding
frontal boundary.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal,
urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow...
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Suwannee River, FL including Mobile
Bay, Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3
ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by late Monday night or Tuesday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early
Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida
Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

The remnants of Fred have been undergoing some noticeable changes
early this morning, with one of those features being a curved band
of deep convection having developed in the northeastern quadrant of
the larger cyclonic envelope. A low-level jet (925-850 mb) was noted
in the 0000 UTC upper-air air data and in the Key West VAD wind
profile radar data late last night and early this morning. That
speed maximum produced 2-hours worth of 34-kt and higher 10-meter
winds at the Sand Key (SANF1) C-MAN station south of Key West, and
that is the basis for the increasing the intensity to 35 kt for this
advisory. That speed maximum is also likely responsible for the
large increase in convection north of the Dry Tortugas, which also
has helped to spin up a small mesovortex that passed over buoy
42026 between 0500-0600 UTC, causing the pressure to decrease 3.6 mb
in one hour. That small-scale feature is moving westward and could
become the the low-level center farther to the north of the current
alleged center within the next few hours.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 330/07 kt. The system is
expected to move north-northwestward or northwestward today and
tonight through a narrow weakness in the subtropical ridge located
between 85W-88W longitude based on 0000Z upper-air data. The system
is forecast to turn northward on Monday as it nears the northern
Gulf of coast and comes under the influence of a mid- to
upper-level trough forecast to drop southward over the western Gulf
of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast had to be shifted farther to
the east of the previous advisory, and subsequent forecast tracks
may have to be shifted even further east if a new center develops
farther to the north or northeast as per what recent satellite and
buoy data suggest. The official forecasts track lies a little to the
left of the tightly packed consensus track models.

Upper-level winds are expected to remain marginally conducive for
strengthening due to at least some modest southwesterly wind shear
affecting the cyclone for the next 48 hours. After landfall, Fred
is forecast to weaken rapidly and the global models indicate the
circulation should dissipate by around 96 hours.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river
flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle.
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the
Gulf of Mexico later today, and bring a risk of tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially
from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning
Monday night. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for
a portion of this area later this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 24.4N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 25.5N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 16/0600Z 27.0N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 28.5N 87.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 30.3N 87.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 32.5N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0600Z 35.0N 85.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Remnants Of Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF FRED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 84.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Ochlockonee Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Alabama to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of the remnants of Fred. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 25.3 North, longitude 84.6 West. While the center has
jogged northward during the past few hours, the remnants are moving
generally toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a turn
toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the
system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, cross the
east-central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and
move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night or early
Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical storm later
today, with gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the
Gulf of Mexico until it makes landfall.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Monday...

Florida Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches with isolated
storm totals of 8 inches are anticipated.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western
Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9
inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding
frontal boundary.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal,
urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Suwannee River, FL including Mobile
Bay, Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3
ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by late Monday night or Tuesday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early
Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida
Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Fred has regained tropical storm status over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings will be
issued for portions of the northern Gulf coast on the 11 AM EDT/
10 AM CDT/1500 UTC advisory.

SUMMARY OF 840 AM EDT...1240 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 84.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...FRED AGAIN A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 84.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of the
Florida Panhandle from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of the
Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from from Indian Pass to
Steinhatchee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to
Navarre

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
from Alabama to the eastern Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 84.9 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is
expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred
should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through
Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday
afternoon or Monday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected until landfall,
while Fred is expected to weaken quickly after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Through Monday...

Florida Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches of rain is
anticipated.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western
Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9
inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding
frontal boundary.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal,
urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Steinhatchee River to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coast of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early
Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida
Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the remnants of Fred have
re-developed into a tropical cyclone over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Satellite imagery shows a well-defined low-level center
near the northern end of a broadly curved convective band. The
Hurricane Hunters reported a central pressure of 1008 mb, along
with 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and SFMR wind estimates
near 35 kt about 70 n mi northeast of the center. Based on these
developments and data, the system was upgraded back to Tropical
Storm Fred a couple of hours ago.

The center re-formed northward during the redevelopment process,
and the initial position is re-located to the north of the previous
advisory position. While the forecast guidance is basically
unchanged in calling for a north-northwest motion followed by a
turn toward the north near landfall on the northern Gulf coast, the
new initial position requires the forecast track to be shifted about
40 n mi to the east of the previous track through the landfall time.
Fred is now expected to make landfall in the western Florida
Panhandle sometime Monday afternoon or evening.

Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and
northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm
should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly
vertical shear until landfall. The intensity guidance forecasts
gradual intensification before landfall, and the official intensity
forecast follows the guidance in calling for a peak intensity of
45 kt. After landfall, Fred should quickly weaken and dissipate as
it moves into the Tennessee Valley.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
small stream and river flooding impacts across southern Florida, the
Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, southern Alabama, portions of
Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From Tuesday onward, heavy rain
and flood impacts could continue into other portions of the
Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and
Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and a Storm Surge Warning has
been issued for this area. Interests in these areas should follow
any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 26.1N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 27.4N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 30.5N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1200Z 32.5N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0000Z 34.7N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[AJC3]

Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...FRED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from from Indian Pass to
Steinhatchee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to
Navarre

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
from Alabama to the eastern Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is
expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred
should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through
Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday
afternoon or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected until landfall, while Fred is
expected to weaken quickly after moving inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Through Monday...

Florida Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches of rain is
anticipated.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western
Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9
inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding
frontal boundary.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal,
urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Steinhatchee River to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early
Monday near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida
Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...FRED STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...STORM SURGE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD TO YANKEETOWN...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 85.3W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect along the Florida coast east
of Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to
Navarre

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
from Alabama to the Florida Big Bend should monitor the progress of
the remnants of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 85.3 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is
expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred
should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through
Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday
afternoon or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until landfall. After
landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Through Monday...

Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm
totals of 9 inches.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash,
urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible this afternoon into early
Monday along the west coast of Florida and over the Florida
Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Fred has become a little better
organized this afternoon. The low-level circulation has become
better defined, and there is a burst of central convection with
additional outer banding in the eastern semicircle. A ship near
the outer band north of the center reported 40-kt winds, so the
initial intensity is increased to 40 kt.

After the re-formation phase this morning, Fred appears to have
resumed a north-northwestward motion of 330/9. The track guidance
shows this motion continuing for another 12 h or so, followed by a
turn toward the north that would bring the center to the coast of
the Florida Panhandle in 24-36 h. A general north-northeastward
motion is likely after 36 h until the system dissipates. The track
guidance has shifted eastward again, this time due to the models
forecasting an earlier turn to the north and a more east-of-north
motion after landfall. The new NHC forecast track also is shifted
a little to the east, but after 24 h it lies a little to the west
of the various consensus models.

Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and
northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm
should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly
vertical shear until landfall. However, the intensity guidance
continues to forecast strengthening, and the GFS, HWRF, and HMON
show a stronger Fred at landfall than they did 6 h ago. Based on
that and the increased current intensity, the pre-landfall
intensities have been nudged upward. After landfall, Fred should
quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley
just after 60 h.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban,
small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of
southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast
Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From
Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region,
and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 26.8N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 29.5N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 31.3N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 33.3N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0600Z 35.8N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[AJC3]

Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
700 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING FRED AS IT
MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 85.7W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to
Navarre

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
from Alabama to the Florida Big Bend should monitor the progress of
Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 85.7 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is
expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred
should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through
Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday
afternoon or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected until landfall.
After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Through Monday...

Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm
totals of 9 inches.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash,
urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight into early Monday
along the west coast of Florida and over the Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[AJC3]

Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEGINNING MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 85.9 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is
expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred
should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through
Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday
afternoon or Monday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph
(85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to
quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Through Monday...

Keys and southern Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected..

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 9 inches are expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southeast Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash,
urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning by late Monday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible late tonight through
early Monday over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during
the day Monday from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest
Georgia and southeast Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Fred remains a sheared tropical cyclone however the overall
organization of the system has improved somewhat since this
afternoon. The low-level center is embedded near the western edge
of the primary convective mass, and there has been an overall
increase in deep convection near and to the east of the center. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been
investigating Fred this evening has reported that the pressure has
fallen to 999 mb and it has found winds to support an initial
intensity of 45 kt. The plane found a very small area of slightly
stronger flight-level and SFMR winds well east of the center, but
those winds appear to have been associated with a strong convective
cell and are likely not representative of the system's overall
intensity.

Fred is moving north-northwestward or 330/08 kt, and this motion
should continue overnight. The dynamical model guidance indicates
that the tropical cyclone will turn northward on Monday as it
approaches the coast of the Florida panhandle. A north-
northeastward motion around the western periphery of a subtropical
ridge over the western Atlantic should commence by the time the
system makes landfall, and this general heading should continue
until the system dissipates in a couple of days. The dynamical
models envelope did not change much and the latest consensus aids
were essentially along the previous NHC track. As a result, little
alteration was made to the previous official track forecast.

The cyclone is located within an area of moderate southwesterly
vertical wind shear. However, most of the intensity guidance
continues to suggest that Fred will strengthen a little over the
next 12-18 hours. As the system nears the northern Gulf coast, the
SHIPS guidance forecasts some increase in shear and the intensity
models reflect this by showing a leveling off of Fred's intensity at
that time. After landfall, Fred should weaken quickly and dissipate
over the Tennessee Valley in a little more than 48 hours. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement within the HCCA
and IVCN consensus aids.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small
stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast,
including portions of southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle
of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western
Carolinas. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland
toward the Tennessee Valley, heavy rainfall and flooding may impact
the southern and central Appalachians, and the Piedmont of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region,
and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 27.3N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 28.6N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 30.2N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 32.3N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 34.4N 84.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
100 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 86.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
satellites near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 86.0 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (10 km/h), and this
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through
this morning, followed by a turn toward the north this afternoon.
On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the
western Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and a
nearby ship indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near
50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is
forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to
quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance
aircraft is estimated to be 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Through Today...

Keys and southern Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected..

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 9 inches are expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southeast Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash,
urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning later this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning over
the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late morning
and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into
southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...FRED MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 86.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 86.0 West. Fred is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion
with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through today.
On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the western
Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall. After
landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Today…

Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain
with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected..

Through Tuesday…

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday…

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning later this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible early this morning
over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late
morning and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward
into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and satellite imagery indicated
that Fred's low-level circulation center briefly emerged out from
underneath the southwestern edge of the convective cloud shield
between 0200-0400 UTC. The circulation center, however, has recently
moved back underneath the edge of the main region of convection,
with a new bust of thunderstorms having developed over or near the
low-level center. Having said that, Fred still remains a sheared
tropical cyclone, with Tallahassee NOAA Doppler radar data
indicating that the upper-level circulation at around 30,000 ft is
tilted about 40 nmi northeast of the low-level center. The last
reports from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicated
that the central pressure had risen from 999 mb to 1004 mb during
the time the low-level center was fully exposed southwest of the
deep convection. However, the pressure has likely fallen again now
the center is back underneath the convection. An intensity of 45 kt
is being maintained for this advisory based on the last reliable
reconnaissance SFMR data of about 45 kt, which corresponds well with
a T3.0/45 kt Dvorak satellite shear-pattern intensity estimate.

Fred is moving northward now, or 355/08 kt. The latest NHC model
guidance remains in excellent agreement that Fred will continue
moving in a general northward motion today as the cyclone moves
through a break in the subtropical ridge that is oriented
east-to-west across northern Florida. Landfall is expected in the
western Florida Panhandle region by late afternoon or evening today.
The track guidance has shifted slightly to the east of the previous
advisory track, and the new official forecast track has been nudged
in that direction, but not as far east as the tightly packed
consensus models owing to the strength of the ridge noted in 16/0000
UTC upper-air data.

Fred is forecast to remain in moderate vertical wind shear
conditions throughout the 48-h forecast period. However, the shear
vector is expected to gradually back around from the current
southwesterly direction to more of a south-southwesterly component
right up until landfall occurs, which will align more with Fred's
track direction. This reduction in the effective shear across the
cyclone should allow for some additional strengthening until
landfall occurs, with the distinct possibility that Fred could reach
a peak intensity of 55 kt in 18 hours. After landfall, the
combination of land interaction and the vertical shear increasing to
more than 20 kt should result in rapid weakening, with Fred forecast
to dissipate by 60 hours over the southern Appalachian Mountains.
The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA
and IVCN intensity consensus models.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small
stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast.
By the middle of the week as Fred lifts northward and inland, heavy
rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central
Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region,
and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 29.1N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 31.0N 85.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 33.1N 85.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 35.6N 84.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
730 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FRED INTENSIFYING AND LOCATED A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Fred is intensifying this morning, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 60 mph (95 km/h), with an estimated minimum
central pressure of 993 mb (29.32 inches).

Data from the aircraft and National Weather Service Doppler radar
indicate that Fred is now moving toward the north at 10 mph (17
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 730 AM CDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 85.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
840 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND COAST TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler radar indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend
out as far as 115 miles (185 km) east of the center of Fred.

This requires an extension of the Tropical Storm Warning along the
coast of the Florida Big Bend eastward to Steinhatchee River. This
change will be reflected in the upcoming 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC)
advisory package.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...FRED EXPECTED TO BRING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAINS
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 85.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Big Bend area is
extended eastward to the Steinhatchee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from Navarre to the
Steinhatchee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 85.7 West. Fred is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the
center of Fred should make landfall in the eastern Florida
Panhandle this afternoon or early this evening, and move over
western Georgia on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible before landfall. After landfall,
Fred is expected to quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A National Ocean Service observation site at
Apalachicola, Florida, recently reported a wind gust of 37 mph (59
km/h). NOAA buoy 42039, located about 130 miles (215 km)
south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida, recently reported a
sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Monday...

Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain
with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States... 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions have begun to occur in portions of
the Tropical Storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and southeast
Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND REGION AS FRED APPROACHES THE
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4 85.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from Navarre to the
Steinhatchee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 85.5 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track,
the center of Fred should make landfall in the eastern Florida
Panhandle this afternoon or early this evening, and move over
western Georgia on Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall.
After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h) was recently
reported at Bald Point, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Monday...

Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain
with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States... 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the
Tropical Storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and southeast
Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[AlphaToOmega]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 161913
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
215 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...FRED MAKES LANDFALL IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

National Weather Service WSR-88D radar data indicate that the
center of Tropical Storm Fred has made landfall near Cape San
Blas, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near
65 mph (100 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 215 PM CDT...1915 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 85.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hagen