ATL: FRED - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021

...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 59.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has been issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Guadeloupe and Martinique.

The government of Barbados has been issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Dominica.

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque eastward along
the southern coast of the island and the entire northern coast to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward
and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti
border.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.2 North, longitude 59.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to move through a portion of the
southern Leeward Islands tonight, pass near or over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and
near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles tonight, and are also possible within the
watch area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning
Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning early Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin


Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located
northeast of Barbados has continued to consolidate this afternoon,
with several bands noted in both satellite and radar data from
Barbados and Martinique. ASCAT data from this morning revealed a
sharp trough axis, but the system lacked a well-defined circulation.
However, recent visible satellite imagery hints that a better
defined center may be forming just southwest of the primary
convective mass. These trends suggest the system is likely to
become a tropical depression or storm tonight or Tuesday when it
moves near the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean.
Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the system in order to
issue Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Lesser Antilles,
the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican
Republic.

Since the system is still in its formative stage the initial motion
estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/13 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge
anchored over the western Atlantic should steer the system
west-northwestward through the forecast period. Although there is
high confidence in the overall steering pattern over the next
several days, there is lower than normal confidence in the details
of the track forecast, especially in the short-range due to the lack
of a well-defined center. Exactly where the center forms will have
some downstream implications on the exact forecast track, especially
across the eastern Caribbean. Regardless of the exact track,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic over the next day or two, hence the need
for Tropical Storm Watches for portions of those areas.

The disturbance is embedded within an area of low vertical wind
shear and SSTs of around 28C. These conditions favor additional
development, but the occasional entrainment of dry mid-level air
located just west of the system is likely to prevent more rapid
organization. By Wednesday, the system is likely to be near
Hispaniola, where subtle differences in the forecast track could
have large implications on the intensity of the storm later this
week. A track directly over Hispaniola would likely significantly
disrupt the circulation, while a track more poleward of the island
could allow the system to stay more intact. An additional caveat
beyond 48 hours is that vertical wind shear out of the southwest may
also increase, which could limit the intensity after the system
moves past Hispaniola, although uncertainty exists in how much the
shear will increase given differences between the more favorable
ECMWF and less favorable GFS model solutions. The NHC intensity
forecast brings the system up to a 45 kt tropical storm before
potential land interaction with Hispaniola and afterwards is
conservative given the possibility of additional land interaction
and less favorable environmental conditions towards the end of the
forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves
through the Lesser Antilles tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in portions of the southern Leeward Islands tonight and
Tuesday and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday
afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across
the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba
later this week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual
since the system is still in its formative stage. Interests in these
areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the
forecast.

4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should
monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon
to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week
or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 14.2N 59.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 10/0600Z 15.4N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 10/1800Z 16.8N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 17.9N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 19.2N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0600Z 20.3N 72.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 12/1800Z 21.1N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 22.8N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 24.5N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021

...DISTURBANCE NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THERE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 60.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward
and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti
border.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.7 North, longitude 60.1 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to move across the southern
Leeward Islands later tonight, pass near or over the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and be near
or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or two and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles later tonight, and are also possible within
the watch area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning
Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning early Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday and across portions
of Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 60.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Culebra, and Vieques has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and
on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for northern Haiti from the
border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border.
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 15.1 North, longitude 60.8 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across the
southern Leeward Islands during the next few hours, pass near or
over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and
Tuesday night, and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or two
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm
overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles overnight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico on Tuesday, and in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern
coasts of the Dominican Republic and northern Haiti beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday and across portions
of Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021

The disturbance is now very near the Leeward Islands and it is
expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of
those islands during the next several hours. Satellite and radar
data indicate that deep convection continues to gradually organize
in curved bands across the northern half of the circulation, but
the system still seems to lack a well-defined center. Therefore,
the disturbance remains a potential tropical cyclone for now. The
initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB.

The system is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. The
main steering feature for the system will continue to be the
subtropical ridge that is situated to its north across the central
and western Atlantic. The flow on the south side of the ridge
should keep the depression moving relatively briskly to the
west-northwest during the next couple of days, taking it across the
Leeward Islands overnight, near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Tuesday and Tuesday night, and then near or over
Hispaniola on Wednesday. Beyond that time, the storm is forecast to
gradually slow down, when it nears the southwestern portion of the
ridge, as it moves near Cuba and the Bahamas late this week. By the
weekend, most of the models show the depression reaching a weakness
in the ridge, which will likely cause a gradual turn to the right
near the Florida Keys or southern Florida. The models are in quite
good agreement, especially during the next 3 or 4 days, and the NHC
track forecast lies near the various consensus models. Users are
reminded that the average track errors at days 4 and 5 are 175 miles
and 200 miles, respectively.

The disturbance is currently in conducive conditions for
intensification with the cyclone currently over fairly warm 28 C
waters and in low wind shear conditions. The only negative factor
for the storm is some dry air in its vicinity. Overall, these
environmental factors, and the model guidance, support strengthening
during the next 24 hours or so, but the potential land interaction
with Puerto Rico could limit the amount of intensification. By
Wednesday, the potential land interaction with the mountainous
island of Hispaniola and an increase in westerly shear should cause
some weakening. However, the environmental conditions could become
more favorable for strengthening again by the end of the week, which
is the reason why the forecast shows slightly higher wind speeds at
those time periods. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows
the IVCN and HCCA models, which are typically the most skillful
aids. It should be noted that the intensity forecast is of low
confidence since the cyclone's future strength will be quite
dependent on the exact track and the degree of land interaction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves
through the Leeward Islands tonight, and tropical storm conditions
are possible there. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning
Tuesday afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti by late
Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across
the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern
Bahamas, and Cuba later this week, although the forecast is more
uncertain than usual since the system is still in its formative
stage. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress
and updates to the forecast.

4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should
monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon
to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week
or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 15.1N 60.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 10/1200Z 16.2N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 11/0000Z 17.5N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 18.7N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 19.9N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/1200Z 20.9N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 13/0000Z 21.7N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 23.4N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 26.1N 82.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR DOMINICA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...



SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border.
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.5 North, longitude 61.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to continue passing near the
southern Leeward Islands during the next few hours, pass near or
over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight,
and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or two
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm
later this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles for the next several hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic
by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and
northern Haiti beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 62.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Turks and Caicos Islands, and for the southeastern Bahamas,
including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas,
Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.7 North, longitude 62.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight, and be near
or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later
this morning. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts
with Hispaniola on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential
mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic
by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic,
northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas
beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

The disturbance moved through the southern Leeward Islands a few
hours ago. Based on surface observations from the islands, the
system still does not have a well-defined circulation. Although
the satellite appearance shows some increase in organization, the
surface data suggest no significant strengthening has occurred thus
far. The current intensity estimate is held at 30 kt in agreement
with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later this morning and
should provide an updated intensity estimate, and also determine
whether the system has become a tropical cyclone.

The disturbance continues moving west-northwestward, or about
295/15 kt. The flow on the south side of a strong subtropical
ridge should maintain the west-northwestward track for the next
72 hours or so, with some slowing of forward speed by midweek.
Beyond that time, a turn toward the northwest with further
deceleration is likely while the system moves near the western
periphery of the ridge. The official track forecast is very
similar to the previous one and in good agreement with the latest
simple and corrected multi-model consensus tracks. Users are
reminded that the average track errors at days 4 and 5 are 175 miles
and 200 miles, respectively.

Dynamical conditions appear to be conducive for intensification
during the next 24 hours or so, with low vertical shear and
pronounced upper-level outflow over the system. The main
hindrance for strengthening today and tonight appears to be some
dry mid-tropospheric air in the environment, as shown by the global
models. Since the projected track takes the disturbance or cyclone
over the mountainous land mass of Hispaniola, some weakening and
disruption of the circulation is likely in 36 hours or so. Later
in the forecast period, the dynamical guidance shows some increase
in westerly shear which could also inhibit strengthening. The
official intensity forecast closely follows the NOAA corrected
consensus forecast technique, HCCA. There is significant
uncertainty in 4-5 day intensity forecasts, however.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves
over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico beginning this afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic
by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern
Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be
across the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba later this week,
although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system
is still in its formative stage. Interests in these areas should
monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should
monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon
to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week
or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 15.7N 62.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 10/1800Z 16.7N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 11/0600Z 17.9N 67.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0600Z 20.1N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 21.1N 74.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 24.4N 80.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 26.8N 83.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO THE DISTURBANCE...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.0 North, longitude 63.1 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight, and be near
or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later
this morning. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts
with Hispaniola on Wednesday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently enroute to investigate the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential
mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic
by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic,
northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas
beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THE DISTURBANCE IS NOT
YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 63.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Martinique and Guadeloupe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 16.3 North, longitude 63.8 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over
the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight,
be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands Thursday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
However, the aircraft did not find a well-defined closed
circulation. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day
or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm
later today or tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system
interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic
by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic,
northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas
beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

Satellite imagery shows that the disturbance has become better
organized since yesterday, and satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB are at tropical storm strength. However, reports from
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations indicate
that the system does not yet have a well-defined closed
circulation, with the wind and pressure fields more resembling an
open wave, The maximum flight-level winds at 925 mb were 35-40 kt,
and reliable SFMR wind estimates were near 30 kt. Based on these
data, the system remains at potential tropical cyclone status with
an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/16 kt. A
strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north should steer the system
generally west-northwestward for the next 72 h with some decrease in
forward speed after 24 h. Beyond that time, a turn toward the
northwest with an further decrease in forward speed is likely while
the system moves near the western periphery of the ridge. The track
guidance has changed little since the previous advisory. So, the
new NHC track also has little change, and it lies near the various
consensus models. Users are reminded that the average track errors
at days 4 and 5 are 175 miles and 200 miles, respectively.

Conditions continue to appear favorable for strengthening before the
system reaches Hispaniola in about 24 h, although there may be dry
air entraining into the system in the southeastern quadrant. The
intensity forecast will follow the previous prediction in calling
for the disturbance to become a tropical storm before landfall,
followed by weakening to a depression. The remainder of the
intensity forecast has lower confidence due to possible land
interaction with Cuba and differences in the upper-level wind
forecasts among the various global models. The new intensity
forecast will call for slow intensification from 60 h onward,
similar to the previous one.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves
over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today or tonight Tropical
storm conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico beginning this afternoon, and in the
Dominican Republic by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late
Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential
for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The
greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the eastern and
southern portions of Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba later this week,
although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system
is still in its formative stage. Interests in these areas should
monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for
this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts
could occur there by late this week or this weekend given the
uncertainty in the long-range forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 16.3N 63.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0000Z 17.3N 66.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 11/1200Z 18.5N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0000Z 19.6N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1200Z 20.7N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 13/0000Z 21.7N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 22.7N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 25.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 27.5N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...RAINBANDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Netherlands has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.6 North, longitude 64.8 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight, be near or
over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas
and the Turks and Caicos Islands Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with
Hispaniola on Wednesday. Squalls with winds to tropical-storm
force are occuring over portions of the northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic
by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic,
northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas
beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...DISTURBANCE NOW SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 65.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.9 North, longitude 65.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, be near or over Hispaniola
on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos Islands on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. Some
weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several
hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

Satellite imagery this afternoon continues to show that the
disturbance has an organized convective pattern, with satellite
intensity estimates of tropical-storm strength from SAB and TAFB.
However, the circulation still appears to not be well defined, with
the San Juan WSR-88D Doppler radar showing multiple mid-level
centers and several convective cells with small-scale rotation.
Based on this, the system will not be upgraded to a tropical cyclone
at this time. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on mainly
on continuity from earlier data. It should be noted that squalls
with short-lived winds to tropical-storm force have been reported in
bands over the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/17 kt. A
strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north should steer the system
generally west-northwestward for the next 72 h with some decrease in
forward speed after 24 h. Beyond that time, a turn toward the
northwest with an further decrease in forward speed is likely while
the system moves near the western periphery of the ridge. There
has been some increase in the spread of the track guidance from
72-120 h, with the GFS shifting to the right and the other models
not changing very much. The new NHC forecast track has only minor
changes from the previous one and lies near the various consensus
models.

Conditions continue to appear favorable for strengthening before the
system reaches Hispaniola in about 18 h, although there may be dry
air entraining into the system in the southeastern quadrant. The
intensity forecast will follow the previous prediction in calling
for the disturbance to become a tropical storm before landfall,
followed by weakening to a depression. From 24-60 h, the models
have come into better agreement that the system will encounter
westerly vertical wind shear, and based on that and the possibility
of land interaction the intensity forecast shows little
re-intensification during that time. After 60 h, the models still
disagree on the evolution of the upper-level winds near the system,
but they are in better agreement that conditions over the eastern
Gulf will become more conducive for development. Thus, the
intensity forecast calls for intensification during that time. The
new intensity forecast is almost the same as the previous one.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves
over the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico tonight, and are expected to begin in the Dominican
Republic by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential
for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will
be across the eastern and southern portions of Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next
several days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual
since the system is still in its formative stage. Interests in these
areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the
forecast.

4. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Florida beginning Friday through the weekend. However, given the
uncertainty in the long-range forecast it is too soon to determine
the timing, location, and magnitude of any potential impacts.
Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 16.9N 65.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0600Z 17.8N 67.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0600Z 20.2N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 12/1800Z 21.2N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 22.1N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 23.1N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 28.5N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 5A...
Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

Corrected direction of motion in summary section.

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 66.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was located by an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data from
San Juan near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 66.1 West. The system
is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn back toward the
west-northwest is forecast to occur early Wednesday, with a
west-northwestward motion continuing during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near the
southern coast of Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday, be near
or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday.

Data from the aircraft and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm
later tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts
with Hispaniola on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft and earlier surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km),
mainly northeast of the center. During the past few hours, a
sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h)
were measured by a Weatherflow observing station at Sandy Point on
the western end of St. Croix. A wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was
reported near Yabucoa in southeastern Puerto Rico.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several
hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT AND OVER HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 66.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located by the San Juan NOAA Doppler weather radar near latitude
17.4 North, longitude 66.8 West. Fred is moving toward the west near
17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue
tonight. A turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur
early Wednesday, with a west-northwestward motion continuing during
the next few days. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass
near the southern coast of Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday,
be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is forecast overnight before Fred reaches
eastern Dominican Republic Wednesday morning. Some weakening is
likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h) was recently
measured by a Weatherflow observing site in Las Mareas along the
south-central coast of Puerto Rico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals
of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several
hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are affecting
portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to
spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and
reach portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

Data from satellites, the San Juan NOAA Doppler weather radar, and
an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the
low-level circulation has become better defined since the previous
advisory and,thus, the disturbance has been upgraded to Tropical
Storm Fred. Although the surface and low-level circulations are
vertically aligned, radar data indicate that the mid-level
circulation is still tilted about 40 n mi to the south. However,
that mid-level feature has been steadily gaining ground from its
earlier 100-nmi southeastward displacement. Radar Doppler velocity
data, aircraft 850-mb flight-level wind data of 43 kt and SFMR
surface winds of 33 kt, plus earlier surface observations of
sustained 33-kt winds, support an initial intensity of 35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is westward or 270/15 kt. However, this
should be a short-term motion overnight due to interaction with the
mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico to the north. By early Wednesday
morning, Fred is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion and
pass through the Mona Passage, reaching the eastern Dominican
Republic shortly after sunrise. A strong subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone is forecast by the global models to basically
remain static across the central and western Atlantic Ocean for the
next five days. Given this pattern, Fred is expected to maintain a
west-northwestward motion through 96 hours, remaining just offshore
the north coast of Haiti and Cuba during that time. After emerging
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on day 4, Fred is forecast to
gradually turn more north-northwestward as the cyclone rounds the
southwestern periphery of the aforementioned ridge. The latest NHC
track forecast models strongly support this track scenario, although
there was a slight northward shift in the guidance envelope on this
cycle. The new official track forecast was shifted a little north of
the previous one through 72 hours, and then lies down the middle
of the tightly packed track consensus models.

Conditions remain favorable for some strengthening before Fred
reaches Hispaniola in about 12 h, but the intensity likely won't be
much stronger than 40-45 kt at landfall. Interaction with the
mountainous terrain of Hispaniola on Wednesday should result in some
weakening, but tropical-storm-force winds could occur along the the
north coast of the island if the center shifts a little more to
right of the forecast track. After emerging back over water by late
Wednesday, only slow strengthening is forecast in the 36-60-h time
period due to westerly vertical wind shear of about 20 kt expected
to affect the cyclone. On days 4 and 5, however, Fred is expected to
be moving over warmer sea-surface temperatures and into a much
weaker wind shear regime, which would favor more robust
strengthening. As a result, some of the regional and statistical-
dynamical intensity models bring Fred near or to hurricane strength
during that time. However, there is uncertainty Fred's structure
after interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Cuba, and continued
disagreement between the global models on how the upper-level wind
flow pattern near the cyclone will evolve, which ranges from
favorable anticyclonic outflow to strong southwesterly shear. Given
these factors, the NHC intensity forecast was only nudged slightly
higher than the previous advisory, and lies between the consensus
models HCCA and IVCN, and the SHIPS and LGEM models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, and are expected to
begin in the Dominican Republic Wednesday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern
Bahamas by late Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential
for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be
across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next
several days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual
since Fred is forecast to interact with Hispaniola on Wednesday.
Interests in these areas should monitor Fred's progress and updates
to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in Florida beginning
Friday in the Keys and spreading northward through portions of the
Peninsula and the Panhandle this weekend. However, it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of any potential
impacts. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Fred's progress
and check updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 17.4N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 18.6N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0000Z 19.9N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/1200Z 20.9N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 13/0000Z 21.8N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 22.8N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 23.8N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 26.5N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 29.3N 84.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

...TROPICAL STORM FRED MOVING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 67.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical
Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the
Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 67.6 West. Fred is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a general
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and
continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center
of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later today, and
move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible before the center nears the coast of
the Dominican Republic later this morning. Some weakening is likely
thereafter while the system interacts with Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals
of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the
next few hours, and in portions of the warning area in the
Dominican Republic later this morning. Tropical storm conditions
are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late today.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are affecting
portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to
continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach
portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

...FRED NEARING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 68.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico including Culebra and
Vieques, and for the U.S. Virgin Islands, is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 68.2 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
general west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today
and continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later
today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas on Thursday, and move north of the northern coast of central
Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola
later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following
rainfall amounts:

Over Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid
river rises and the potential for mudslides across Puerto Rico, and
the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area in the Dominican Republic later this morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of
Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning
late today.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to
continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach
portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

Fred's satellite and radar presentation have changed little since
it became a tropical storm yesterday evening. The system consists
mainly of a circularly shaped area of deep convection with cloud
tops colder than -70C on infrared images, with some rain bands
trying to wrap around the center on radar images. The outer
banding features have become indistinct on satellite imagery at the
moment. Upper-level outflow remains well defined. Wind gusts to
tropical storm force were reported at elevated sites at Cabo Rojo on
the southwestern tip of Puerto Rico. The current intensity estimate
is held at 35 kt, in agreement with Advanced Dvorak Technique
estimates from UW-CIMSS.

A west-northwestward motion appears to have resumed, at about 14
kt. The system should continue to move on this heading with a
gradual decrease in forward speed, on the south side of a mid-level
subtropical ridge, for the next 2-3 days. Around 72 hours, Fred
should begin to turn to the right as it nears the western periphery
of the ridge. During the next 3-5 days a generally northwestward
track, toward a weakness in the ridge, is likely. The official
forecast track is about the same as the previous one, and in good
agreement with the latest TVCA and HCCA model consensus guidance.
Again, users are advised that 4- and 5-day track forecasts have
average errors of 175 and 200 miles, respectively.

Although the vertical shear is currently low, which would normally
be conducive for strengthening, the cyclone will soon begin to
interact with the land mass of Hispaniola. This should cause some
weakening later today and tonight. Some restrengthening should
occur after the system moves away from that island. However, given
the likely disruption of the circulation by the mountains, Fred may
be slow to regain intensity. Moreover, an upper-level low and
trough near Florida in 2-3 days could impart increasing
west-southwesterly shear and limit intensification. The official
intensity forecast is close to the model consensus and the LGEM
guidance. As usual, there is significant uncertainty in the
intensity forecast for the latter part of the period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
the Dominican Republic this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late
today.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential
for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be
across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next few
days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred
is forecast to interact with Hispaniola today. Interests in these
areas should monitor Fred's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in Florida beginning
Friday in the Keys and spreading northward through portions of the
Peninsula and the Panhandle this weekend. However, it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of any potential
impacts. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Fred's
progress and check updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 18.0N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0600Z 20.1N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 12/1800Z 21.1N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 22.1N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 24.1N 80.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 27.0N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 29.5N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

...CENTER OF FRED JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 69.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...95 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 69.1 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
general west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today
and continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later
today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas on Thursday, and move north of the northern coast of central
Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with
Hispaniola today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center. La Romana, Dominican Republic, recently reported
sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following
rainfall amounts:

Over Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid
river rises and the potential for mudslides across Puerto Rico, and
the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area in the Dominican Republic later this morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of
Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning
late today.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to
continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach
portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

...CENTER OF FRED CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 69.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma,
Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 69.7 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed
is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola
this afternoon and evening, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands
and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of
the northern coast of central Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected later today and tonight as the center
of Fred crosses Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected
beginning Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center. La Romana, Dominican
Republic, recently reported sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following
rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and
small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

By Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida
peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall
could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of
the warning area in the Dominican Republic, and these conditions
should continue today. Tropical storm conditions are possible along
the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the
southeastern Bahamas beginning late today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in Cuba beginning tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to
continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach
portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

Morning satellite imagery and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the circulation of Fred has become better
defined south of the eastern Dominican Republic. The NOAA plane
reported maximum flight-level winds of 40-45 kt, and SFMR winds of
up to 50 kt, although these were measured near the coast and the
reliability is unknown. The central pressure is near 1006 mb.
Based on these data and a dropsonde northeast of the center, the
initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. The low-level center is
partly exposed near the western edge of the convection, which has
decreased in coverage since yesterday.

The center has been moving more westward for the past few hours.
However, the longer term motion is 290/14. There is no change in
the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Fred
should continue moving generally west-northwestward for the next
72 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as the cyclone
nears the western periphery of the ridge. The new forecast track is
little changed from the previous advisory and lies near the various
consensus models. However, some adjustments to the track may be
necessary as the center interacts with the mountains of Hispaniola
during the next 12-24 hours.

Fred is now in an environment of 15-20 kt of westerly vertical
shear produced in part by an upper-level trough near the Florida
Peninsula, and the global models suggests that moderate shear
should persist for at least the next 48-60 h. This, combined with
land interaction, should cause Fred to weaken as it crosses
Hispaniola, and then at best slowly re-intensify after it emerges
over the water. After that time, the global models suggest the
trough should weaken as a large upper-level anticyclone forms near
or just southeast of Fred. This evolution could let the shear
decrease a little and allow a little more strengthening,
particularly when Fred is over the Gulf of Mexico. The new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and follows
the overall trend of the intensity guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of the
Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late today, and in
portions of Cuba by tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential
for mudslides in the Dominican Republic. Heavy rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises across southern Florida.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next few
days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred
is forecast to interact with Hispaniola today and tonight.
Interests in these areas should monitor Fred's progress and updates
to the forecast.

4. There is an increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts in
Florida beginning Friday night or early Saturday in the Keys and
spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the
Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Interests throughout Florida
should monitor Fred's progress and check updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 18.2N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 19.2N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/1200Z 20.3N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 13/0000Z 21.4N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 22.3N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 23.3N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 24.6N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 27.5N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 30.5N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 PM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

...CENTER OF FRED MOVING INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF
SANTO DOMINGO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 70.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM W OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 70.1 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed
is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Fred is expected to be over Hispaniola this
afternoon and evening, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and
the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of
the northern coast of central Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected through tonight as the center of Fred crosses
Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected beginning Thursday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center. Santo Domingo, Dominican
Republic, recently reported a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following
rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and
small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

By Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida
peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall
could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of
the warning area in the Dominican Republic, and these conditions
should continue today. Tropical storm conditions are possible along
the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the
southeastern Bahamas beginning late today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in Cuba beginning tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to
continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach
portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...CENTER OF FRED CROSSING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 71.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WNW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 71.0 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a
general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed
is expected to continue for the next two days or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be over
Hispaniola for the next several hours, move near the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move
near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba Thursday night
and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fred is expected to weaken to a depression tonight as it crosses
Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected beginning
Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following
rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through Thursday morning could
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
the Dominican Republic for a few more hours. Tropical storm
conditions are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to continue across the
U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola tonight, where they
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

During the past several hours, the center of Fred has moved inland
over the Dominican Republic. The storm continues to produce an
area of convection near and southeast of the center. However, the
low-level circulation is losing some organization as it passes over
mountainous terrain. There have been no observations near the
center recently, so the initial intensity of 35 kt is based mainly
on weakening from the previous over water intensity.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/13. Some erratic
motion is expected during the next 12 h or so as the center moves
over the mountains of Hispaniola. After reaching the water, the
cyclone is expected to moves west-northwestward on the south side
of the subtropical ridge through about 60 h. After that, a
northwestward motion is expected through the end of the forecast
period as Fred moves toward a weakness in the ridge. The track
guidance becomes a bit divergent during this time, with the ECMWF,
Canadian, and HWRF models showing a track near or over the Florida
Peninsula, while the GFS, UKMET, and HMON models show the center
passing south and west of the Florida Keys, followed by a more
northward motion over the Gulf of Mexico. The new forecast track
is between these extremes, and it has only minor adjustments from
the previous NHC track.

Fred is expected to weaken to a depression over Hispaniola during
the next 12 h. Once back over water, the cyclone is expected to be
in a moderate westerly shear environment through at least 60 h. Due
to that, and the uncertainty in how well organized the system
will be after crossing Hispaniola, the intensity forecast shows
only modest intensification during this time. After that time, the
global models forecast that an upper-level trough over Florida
will gradually move to the north, with an large upper-level
anticyclone following near or to the southeast of Fred. How close
this anticyclone gets to Fred will determine how much the shear
decreases while the system is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and
the global models are not in great agreement on this. The GFS and
Canadian keep the high far enough to the east to expose Fred to
southwesterly upper-level winds, while the UKMET and ECMWF move it
closer to the storm. The intensity forecast will show a slightly
faster rate of strengthening after 72 h to match the guidance and
the previous forecast. However, there is lower than normal
confidence in this part of the intensity forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing across portions of the
Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas this evening, and in
portions of Cuba by tonight.

2. Through early Thursday morning, heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid
river rises and potential mudslides in the Dominican Republic.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next few
days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred
is forecast to interact with Hispaniola through tonight.

4. There is an increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts in
Florida beginning Friday night or early Saturday in the Keys and
spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the
Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall
could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and possible
rapid river rises across southern Florida. Interests throughout
Florida should monitor Fred's progress and check updates to the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 18.9N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 12/0600Z 19.8N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/1800Z 20.9N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 13/0600Z 21.9N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 22.9N 79.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 23.9N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 25.3N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 28.5N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 31.0N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...FRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 71.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast to Cabo Frances Viejo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo
to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located by satellite-derived wind data near latitude 19.2 North,
longitude 71.6 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near
15 mph (24 km/h), and a general west-northwestward motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected for the next several days. On
the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be over
Hispaniola overnight, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the
northern coast of central Cuba Thursday night and Friday.

Data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft and surface observations
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph
(55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little, if any change, in strength is
expected overnight. Slow re-intensification is forecast to begin by
Thursday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through Thursday morning could
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur in brief squalls over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Dominican Republic for a
few more hours. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief
squalls, will also be possible along the northern coast of Haiti,
the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning
Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to continue across the
U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola tonight, where they
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 72.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 72.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h)
and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track,
the center of Fred is expected to be over northern Haiti overnight,
move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central
Cuba Thursday night and Friday.

Dropsonde data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little, if any change, in strength is expected overnight.
Slow re-intensification is forecast to begin by Thursday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through Thursday morning could
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur in brief squalls over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Dominican Republic for a
few more hours. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief
squalls, will also be possible along the northern coast of Haiti,
the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning
Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to continue across the
U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola tonight, where they
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

The center of Fred is estimated to be located over extreme eastern
Haiti. This position is based on continuity with the previous
forecast and a small low-level cyclonic circulation noted in
cloud-drift wind vectors that were based on the last few GOES-16
high-resolution visible satellite images. A NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft performed a quasi-synoptic surveillance mission this
evening and released dropsondes while circumnavigating Hispaniola.
Some of the dropsondes measured surface winds of 24-27 kt about 150
nmi north and northwest (in the Windward Passage) of the center, and
these data support maintaining an intensity of 30 kt for this
advisory. The main convective cloud mass has been displaced to the
southeast of the low-level center due to the west-northwesterly
vertical wind shear of about 20 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt. The global and regional
models remain in surprisingly good agreement on Fred maintaining a
steady west-northwestward motion through 48-60 hours as a strong
ridge remains entrenched over the western Atlantic during that time
period. Thereafter, however, the NHC model guidance diverges
significantly, with the now much weaker HWRF model taking Fred more
westward, while the GFS and ECMWF models move the cyclone
northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near or just offshore
the Florida west coast; the UKMET model lies between these two track
extremes. The weaker HWRF track has been discounted given the NHC
forecast that Fred will remain vertically coherent and restrengthen
after moving back over water. Thus, the new NHC track forecast is
essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies
close to the NOAA-HCCA corrected-consensus model. NOTE: the
aforementioned NOAA WP-3D reconnaissance aircraft has been releasing
dropsondes from approximately the 450-mb level and has also been
collecting tail-Doppler radar data. These data should have been
assimilated into the 0000 UTC model runs, which hopefully will
provide better track and intensity model forecasts for the next
advisory package.

Fred is forecast remain within a moderate to strong westerly to
southwesterly vertical wind shear regime throughout the forecast
period by almost all of the global and regional models. As a result,
rapid strengthening is not expected after Fred moves back over
water. There is one caveat, however, and that is the ECMWF model
forecasting the shear to weaken to 5-10 kt during the 36-72 hour
period, which could allow for a little more strengthening than what
the official forecast is currently indicating. The new NHC intensity
prediction is identical to the previous one owing to the
expectation that some degree of westerly shear will be affecting
Fred throughout the entire forecast period. The official forecast
follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus intensity models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early Thursday morning, heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid
river rises and potential mudslides in the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and in
portions of Cuba Thursday.

3. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and
small stream flooding, and possible rapid river rises across
southern Florida. Heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact
the remainder of Florida and parts of the Southeast this weekend
and into next week.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions beginning
early Saturday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward along
portions of the Florida west coast and the Florida Panhandle through
Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 19.5N 72.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND HISPANIOLA
12H 12/1200Z 20.4N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 13/0000Z 21.6N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 22.5N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 23.5N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 24.7N 81.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 26.2N 82.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 29.2N 84.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 31.7N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...DISORGANIZED FRED OVER NORTHWESTERN HAITI...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 72.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 72.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h)
and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center of Fred is expected to be near the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today, move near or north
of the northern coast of central Cuba tonight and Friday, and near
the Florida Keys and south Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow
strengthening is expected tonight through the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are
possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos,
and the southeastern Bahamas beginning later this morning. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your
local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...DISORGANIZED FRED MOVES BACK OVER WATER...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 73.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 73.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.
On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the
southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and
central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys
and south Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow
strengthening is expected Friday and this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are
possible along the northern coast of Haiti and the southeastern
Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
Cuba beginning later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your
local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

The rugged terrain of Hispaniola has taken a toll on Fred.
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
circulation is stretched out and seems to resemble a trough at the
surface. The system is now emerging back over water and is located
between Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. Most of
the associated showers and thunderstorms are located to the east of
the estimated center, with heavy rains continuing over portions of
Hispaniola. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, but
there is limited data to confirm this. Both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Fred later this morning, and
the data from both planes will be helpful in estimating Fred's
strength and structure.

Fred appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. The
track forecast reasoning has not changed much. A subtropical
ridge currently situated to the north of Fred over the western
Atlantic should continue to steer the system west-northwestward for
the next 36 to 48 hours. This motion should take the storm just
north of or across Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas during that
time period. By the weekend, the models suggest that Fred will
be rounding the western periphery of the ridge, which will likely a
cause a slow down and a gradual turn to the northwest and then the
north across portions of the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula,
and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is uncertainty in exactly
where and when Fred will make that turn to the right, with models
currently spanning a region from over Florida to the east-central
Gulf of Mexico. The NHC track forecast remains on the right side
of the guidance envelope, near the typically more skillful global
models and consensus aids.

Fred is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly
vertical wind shear. This shear is expected to persist during the
next day or so, and those unfavorable winds combined with some land
interaction with Cuba should prevent the system from strengthening
much, if at all, during that time period. The shear could lessen on
Friday and since SSTs are very warm and there is abundant
environmental moisture, some strengthening seems likely when Fred is
approaching the Florida Keys and south Florida Friday night and
Saturday. After that time, the intensity forecast becomes more
complicated by how much land interaction there will be with Florida.
Since the official forecast shows a track over the eastern Gulf,
additional strengthening is predicted before Fred makes its final
landfall along the Florida Big Bend region or Florida panhandle late
in the weekend or early next week. However, that part of the
intensity forecast, since it will be very track dependent, is more
uncertain.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Continued heavy rainfall today could lead to flash, urban, and
small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and
potential mudslides in the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti
and the southeastern Bahamas this morning, and in portions of Cuba
later today.

3. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and
small stream flooding, and possible rapid river rises across
southern Florida. Heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact
the remainder of Florida and parts of the Southeast this weekend
and into next week.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions beginning early
Saturday in the Florida Keys and south Florida. These conditions
are expected to spread northward along portions of the Florida
west coast and the Florida Panhandle through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 20.2N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 21.0N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 23.8N 80.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 25.1N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 26.6N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 29.5N 84.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 32.2N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...DISORGANIZED FRED MOVING BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 74.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 80 MI...175 KM NE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 74.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.
On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the
southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and
central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys
and south Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow
strengthening is expected Friday and this weekend. Providenciales
in the Turks and Caicos Islands recently reported a wind gust of
39 mph (63 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1011 mb (29.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are
possible along the northern coast of Haiti and the southeastern
Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
Cuba beginning later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your
local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT FRED REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 74.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for Haiti has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred.
A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for portions of the
Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 74.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph
(22 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected for the next day or two. A turn to the northwest is
expected by Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to
move near the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north
of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the
Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little
change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening
is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain
tropical-storm strength during that time.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve and
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic and Haiti...3 to 5 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through today
could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with
Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday,
3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are
possible in the southeastern Bahamas this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba beginning
later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Fred is poorly organized this morning. Reports from Air Force
Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, along with 1-minute
imagery from GOES-16, indicate that the circulation is barely
closed. Dropsondes in the area reported surface pressures of
1013-1014 mb, and the maximum winds of near 30 kt are well to the
northeast of the center. In addition, there is currently no
organized convection anywhere near the center. Based on the
evidence of the closed circulation, the system will be maintained as
tropical depression for this advisory. However, the structure is
currently closer to that of an open wave than a normal tropical
cyclone.

The initial motion is now 300/12. The subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic north of Fred should steer the cyclone
west-northwestward during the next 36 h or so. This motion should
take the depression away from the southeastern Bahamas and
bring it near the north coast of Cuba. After that time, Fred
should approach the western periphery of the ridge, which should
cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and slow its forward speed.
There remains some uncertainty as to the when and where of the
turn, with the track guidance models remaining spread across a
region from over Florida to the east-central Gulf of Mexico. The
new track forecast is little changed from the previous NHC track,
and it lies a little to the east of the consensus models for the
first 72 h or so.

Fred remains in an environment about 20 kt of westerly vertical
wind shear. This shear is expected to persist during the next day
or so, and this combined with the current disorganization should
prevent significant strengthening during this time. While
there is still disagreement between the global models on the
forecast upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico, the shear could
lessen after 36 h and allow some intensification as the cyclone
nears south Florida and moves into the eastern Gulf. The intensity
guidance has trended weaker since the last advisory, with none of
the guidance currently calling for Fred to reach hurricane
strength. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one while Fred is over water, and it follows the overall trend of
the intensity guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall today could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential
for mudslides in the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southeastern
Bahamas and portions of Cuba today.

3. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and
small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises across
southern Florida. Heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact
the remainder of Florida and parts of the Southeast this weekend and
into next week.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions beginning early
Saturday in the Florida Keys and south Florida. This risk will
spread northward along portions of the Florida west coast and to the
Florida Panhandle through Monday. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely
be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the southern Florida
Peninsula this afternoon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 20.9N 74.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 21.8N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 22.8N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 23.8N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 24.8N 81.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 26.0N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 27.5N 83.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 30.5N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1200Z 33.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 74.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred.
A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for portions of the
Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 74.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next day or two. A turn to the northwest is expected by
Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move near the
southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and
central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys
and southern Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little
change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening
is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain
tropical-storm strength during that time.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations is 1014 mb (29.94
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic and Haiti...3 to 5 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through today
could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with
Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday,
3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are
possible in the southeastern Bahamas this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba beginning
this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...FRED CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 75.3W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, and for the southwest coast of the
Florida Peninsula from Bonita Beach south and east to Ocean Reef,
including Florida Bay.

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for the southeastern Bahamas.

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for
the provinces of Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to
Ocean Reef including Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight
and Friday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 75.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
(19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night or
Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move
along or just north of eastern and central Cuba tonight and
Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center.
Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow
strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is
forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it nears the Florida
Keys and south Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From Friday into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Florida Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and
north towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals
of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small
stream flooding, and potentially exacerbate ongoing minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba tonight through Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Friday night. Wind
gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Fred remains poorly organized at this time. While the low-level
circulation looks more closed than it did earlier, the center is
broad and may have multiple vortices rotating around it. Also,
while convection has increased from earlier today, there is only
minimal convection near the center and little evidence of banding.
The initial intensity remains 30 kt, with those winds likely
occurring in squalls to the northeast of the center.

Fred has slowed its forward speed, with the initial motion now
295/10. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy
from the previous advisory. The subtropical ridge to the northeast
should steer Fred west-northwestward for the first 24-36 h, followed
by a turn toward the northwest as the cyclone approaches the western
periphery of the ridge. By 96-120 h, a northward motion is expected
as Fred moves into a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance has
shifted westward since the previous advisory, most notably after
about 24 h. Thus, that portion of the new forecast track has also
been nudged a little westward, but it still lies to the east of the
various consensus models.

Fred remains in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly vertical
wind shear. The shear is expected to persist during the next day or
so, and this combined with the current disorganization of the system
should prevent significant strengthening during that time. After
that, there remains disagreement between the global models on the
evolution of the upper-level trough over Florida and the upper-level
anticyclone southeast of Fred. Some shear is likely to continue,
but there may be a period of more conducive conditions from 36-72 h.
The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one in calling
for slow strengthening through the first 36 h, with a little faster
strengthening from 36-72 h. With that being said, the forecast
45-kt peak intensity is near the high end of the intensity guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. From Friday into Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal,
urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding across southern
and central Florida, and into the Big Bend of Florida. By early next
week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions
of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and
Piedmont.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Friday night and
Saturday in the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida, where
a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. The risk of tropical storm
conditions will spread northward along portions of the Florida west
coast and to the Florida Panhandle Saturday night through Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 21.3N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 24.0N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 25.2N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 26.4N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 28.1N 84.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 31.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 33.5N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...FRED SLOWS DOWN OFFSHORE THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 75.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to
Ocean Reef including Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight
and Friday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 75.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A
turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night or Saturday. On
the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of
eastern and central Cuba tonight and Friday, and be near the Florida
Keys and southern Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little
change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening
is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain
tropical storm strength as it nears the Florida Keys and south
Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From Friday into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Florida Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and
north towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals
of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small
stream flooding, and potentially exacerbate ongoing minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba tonight through Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Friday night. Wind
gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...FRED MOVING PARALLEL TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED VERY NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 75.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SE OF SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to
Ocean Reef including Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
by Friday morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.6 West. The depression is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is motion is expected
through Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night
or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along
or just north of eastern and central Cuba tonight and Friday, and be
near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening through Saturday, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again later tonight or early Friday. Fred is expected
to be a tropical storm as it nears the Florida Keys and south
Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From Friday into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and north
towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream
flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba tonight through Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Friday night. Wind
gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this indicate
that Fred's inner-core wind field Fred remains poorly organized.
Also, data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft suggests that the
650-mb mid-level circulation center is titled at least 40 nmi to
the east of the low-level center. The maximum 925-mb flight-level
wind measured thus far has been 43 kt and the highest reliable SFMR
surface wind speed sampled has been 33 kt. A blend of these data
support maintaining a solid 30-kt intensity for this advisory, but
Fred is right on the cusp of regaining tropical storm status.

Fred has slowed down some more, with the initial motion estimate an
uncertain 295/08 kt. The uncertainty in Fred's forward motion is
related to the speed due to the low-level center jumping around
every time a small convective tower develops within the larger
cloud mass. However, the general motion of the wind field and the
associated pressure envelope is toward the west-northwest or 295
degrees. Otherwise, there is no significant changes to the previous
track forecast or reasoning. Fred is expected to continue moving
west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion near
or just offshore the Florida west coast in the 48-to-72-hour period.
On days 4 and 5, a slower northward motion is forecast as Fred moves
into a developing weakness in the ridge. The latest track guidance
has become more divergent, with the GFS model dissipating and then
redeveloping Fred over south Florida in about 48 hours, with the
other models taking a weakening cyclone more westward. The exception
is the westward-trending ECMWF model, which moves Fred along the
Florida west coast. The new NHC track forecast was nudged slightly
to the east or right of the previous advisory track after 24 hours,
but lies to the left of the ECMWF model and between the NOAA-HCCA
and TVCA consensus track models.

Fred is forecast to remain under the influence of westerly to
southwesterly vertical wind shear for the next 72 hours. It is the
magnitude of the shear that is in question. The GFS maintains 15-20
kt of shear for the next three days, whereas the ECMWF model
decreases the shear to around 10 kt in the 24-to-60-hour period,
with the latter scenario favoring some strengthening if Fred doesn't
interact too much with the Florida peninsula. Due to the uncertainty
in the amount of shear and land interaction that will be
encountered, latest official intensity forecast remains similar to
the previous advisory and a blend of the HCCA and TVCA consensus
model intensity forecasts.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. From Friday into Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal,
urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding, across southern
and central Florida, and into the Big Bend of Florida. By early next
week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions
of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and
Piedmont.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Friday night and
Saturday in the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida, where
a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. The risk of tropical storm
conditions will spread northward along portions of the Florida west
coast and to the Florida Panhandle Saturday night through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 21.5N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 22.2N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 23.0N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 24.2N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 25.5N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 27.2N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 29.1N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 31.8N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0000Z 34.4N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart