ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[TheDreamTraveler]

It's crazy how fast this thing turned into a major

[galaxy401]

Grace is going to open it's Eye right when it makes landfall it appears.

[Fancy1001]

Very fortunate that this didn't have another 24 hours over water or else we might have been looking at another Historic GOM Cane.

I’ve said that about so many different storms over the last few years

[aspen]

Jeez those winds shot up crazy fast at the last minute. Looks like the HWRF was right about a landfalling Cat 3 that doesn’t open its eye until the moment of landfall.

If this is what we’re getting at the very start of peak season, the next few weeks are going to be hectic…and we still have Henri to watch out for.

[Chris90]

Ope, my landfall prediction is busted. I didn’t expect Grace to intensify this quickly or to this level with the larger eye. Might reach 110kts before landfall. I’m iffy on Cat 4, I’m not sure she has time, but I was way too low earlier so.. who knows?

Hopefully those in the path of the eyewall stay safe and don’t suffer too much loss from Grace.

[StPeteMike]

Models did a really good job with this storm once it got past Hispaniola. Even at the beginning, only thing models were off on was how south Grace would go in the BOC.

[skyline385]

965.9mb from recon, lets see what the drop gets

[Hypercane_Kyle]

965.9mb from recon, lets see what the drop gets

965mb but with a 46 mph SFMR. Actual pressure is probably closer to 963-962 mb.

[Hurricane Mike]

This is gonna be a much nastier hit than most in Mexico were likely prepared for. Hope they hunker down!

[aspen]

That’s quite a strange random hot tower all the way to the SE of the center. Recon is even finding hurricane-force FL winds in it.

[AtlanticWind]

We are about to have 3 hurricanes and 1 major by August 21st.

I dont think we will be hearing on a lot of season cancel posts
But I could be wrong

[aspen]

I really hope recon is able to get one last pass through the NE quadrant to see if the maximum winds have gone up any more. They’ll likely be wrapping up the mission soon.

[ElectricStorm]

Landfall not far away now...

[AxaltaRacing24]

We are about to have 3 hurricanes and 1 major by August 21st.

I dont think we will be hearing on a lot of season cancel posts
But I could be wrong

There is literally nothing to cancel anymore. This is quite the season so far.

[PTrackerLA]

Grace has impressed today. I'm thankful for the high pressure that has built in to spare the US Gulf coast but these temperatures will be brutal into next week. I'm also afraid Grace's RI into a major on 8/20 is an ominous sign as we enter the meat of the season. Goodluck to all those bracing for Grace in Mexico tonight.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1428930776163254282

[skyline385]

We are about to have 3 hurricanes and 1 major by August 21st.

I dont think we will be hearing on a lot of season cancel posts
But I could be wrong

There is literally nothing to cancel anymore. This is quite the season so far.

People seem to be freaking out just because we had a Cat 3 in the BoC of all places in August but are forgetting that a hyperactive season like 2005 had a Cat 4 and Cat 5 in July. Even if we ignore 2005, there have been decent no. of Cat 3 and above hurricanes before August 20.

This season can get bad because of the SST in the Gulf but Grace is not an example of it. Fred had literally free time in the Gulf as well across 30-31C, and it barely managed Cat 1. Most storms this season so far have been tame compared to an actual hyperactive season. So let's just relax and be prepared, and let's not freak out because of a Cat 3 in the most favourable spots in the Gulf.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1428931515912658949

[AxaltaRacing24]

We are about to have 3 hurricanes and 1 major by August 21st.

I dont think we will be hearing on a lot of season cancel posts
But I could be wrong

There is literally nothing to cancel anymore. This is quite the season so far.

People seem to be freaking out just because we had a Cat 3 in the BoC of all places in August but are forgetting that a hyperactive season like 2005 had a Cat 4 and Cat 5 in July. Even if we ignore 2005, there have been decent no. of Cat 3 and above hurricanes before August 20.

This season can get bad because of the SST in the Gulf but Grace is not an example of it. Fred had literally free time in the Gulf as well across 30-31C, and it barely managed Cat 1. Most storms this season so far have been tame compared to an actual hyperactive season. So let's just relax and be prepared, and let's not freak out because of a Cat 3 in the most favourable spots in the Gulf.

This is the earliest cat 3 anywhere in the basin since 2009, and there have been 0 majors before 8/20 since that year. We will have had 3 hurricanes by Saturday, which was more than 2020 at this point. We already also have 8 storms, along with ACE that is well above average. Nobody is expecting 2005 or 2020, but the season is perfectly following in the footsteps of other hyperactive seasons so far.

[ElectricStorm]

We are about to have 3 hurricanes and 1 major by August 21st.

I dont think we will be hearing on a lot of season cancel posts
But I could be wrong

There is literally nothing to cancel anymore. This is quite the season so far.

People seem to be freaking out just because we had a Cat 3 in the BoC of all places in August but are forgetting that a hyperactive season like 2005 had a Cat 4 and Cat 5 in July. Even if wet ignore 2005, there have been decent no. of Cat 3 and above hurricane before August 20.

This season can get bad because of the SST in the Gulf but Grace is not an example of it. Fred had literally free time in the Gulf as well across 30-31C, and it barely managed Cat 1. Most storms this season so far have been tame compared to an actual hyperactive season. So let's just relax and be prepared, and let's not freak out because of a Cat 3 in the most favourable spots in the Gulf.

2005 was a one of a kind season. 2020 was hyperactive and the first major was later than Grace, and it was in the gulf. Same with 2017. And Grace is the earliest major since 2009. Also Fred didn't have good upper level conditions in the gulf, so it's actually pretty impressive it got as strong as it did IMO. I'm not saying a hyperactive season is certain, but I think the indicators are there that the season will be very active.

Also I'm pretty sure Karl 2010 has the BOC landfall record of 100kt, so Grace will be going into the record books as it will beat that.