ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:21 pm

AL, 95, 2021081018, , BEST, 0, 115N, 280W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020, SPAWNINVEST, al722021 to al952021,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/



A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 10/1730Z

C. 11.7N

D. 27.5W

E. THREE/MET-11

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING AROUND LLCC YIELDS DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT
AGREE AND FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO BANDING NOT BEING CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#2 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:24 pm

I've got a feeling this is gonna be a long thread. Here we go...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#3 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:29 pm

I believe this could be the first major hurricane of the season. We will see.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#4 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:30 pm

Mentioned this in the previous thread but you can see some dry air on vis moving in from the North about to interact with 95L. Already looks like it is eroding some of that convection on IR. Maybe why they kept probs low for the time being. Could be trouble down the road though.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#5 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:37 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:I believe this could be the first major hurricane of the season. We will see.


Imagine if it gets the name Grace. That would be such an ironic name for such a kind of storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#6 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:37 pm

Doesn't look all that bad honestly. Will be a long tracker regardless of how strong it gets. Atlantic is finally awake now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#7 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:39 pm

Tough stretch of water ahead of it for the next 5-7 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#8 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:53 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#9 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:58 pm

Whoa. Fastest invest declaration ever? :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#10 Postby Stormybajan » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:01 pm

HurricaneEnzo wrote:Mentioned this in the previous thread but you can see some dry air on vis moving in from the North about to interact with 95L. Already looks like it is eroding some of that convection on IR. Maybe why they kept probs low for the time being. Could be trouble down the road though.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

Looks like 95L is going to have stay low if it wants to survive the SAL, which it should do imo I genuinely think this will another system for the lesser antilles to deal with ..intensity is a mystery right now but this bears watching for sure
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:02 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Whoa. Fastest invest declaration ever? :double:


You are right. A few minutes after the TWO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#12 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:06 pm

SAL isn't a big issue to its immediate west, but will be if it gains much latitude. Still could get wrapped in since it's so close to the north though. Probably closer to TC genesis than expected if the current presentation holds up, just needs to close something off at the surface
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#13 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:49 pm

Stormybajan wrote:
HurricaneEnzo wrote:Mentioned this in the previous thread but you can see some dry air on vis moving in from the North about to interact with 95L. Already looks like it is eroding some of that convection on IR. Maybe why they kept probs low for the time being. Could be trouble down the road though.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

Looks like 95L is going to have stay low if it wants to survive the SAL, which it should do imo I genuinely think this will another system for the lesser antilles to deal with ..intensity is a mystery right now but this bears watching for sure

Models keep this wave going pretty much due west for the next several days. Dry air entrainment from the north is still possible, but it doesn’t seem as bad as last week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#14 Postby Steve H. » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:50 pm

Not ignoring ptc 6, but 95l is getting my attention.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#15 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:52 pm

This has a tough road ahead, but definitely bears watching.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:09 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#17 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 10, 2021 5:10 pm

Convection overall has mostly waned since this morning, but it still has an impressive mid-level spin. This could develop much earlier than the operational models suggest. I hope the HWRF starts running for this system tonight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#18 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Aug 10, 2021 5:11 pm

aspen wrote:Convection overall has mostly waned since this morning, but it still has an impressive mid-level spin. This could develop much earlier than the operational models suggest. I hope the HWRF starts running for this system tonight.

If I recall correctly, diurnal minimum is afternoon over the ocean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:09 pm

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of of showers
and thunderstorms just west of its axis. Some gradual development is
possible over the next several days while the system moves westward
across the tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#20 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of of showers
and thunderstorms just west of its axis. Some gradual development is
possible over the next several days while the system moves westward
across the tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


Oh wow, they upped the chances by 10% each. I personally would not be surprised to see code orange by at least the end of tomorrow
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