ATL: GRACE - Models

[SoupBone]

The GFS at 78 hours has Grace going right across the very top of the Yuacatan, heading W/NW.

[ElectricStorm]

12z GFS 971mb into Mexico

[Hurricane Mike]

I think it's safe to assume Mexico, now the question becomes how strong does Grace get?

[Astromanía]

12z GFS 971mb into Mexico

Well if thas the case, GFS was the first model to show something towards Mexico with this system since it just left Africa

[aspen]

12z HWRF looks to have initialized this very well, with the center on the southern tip of DR as suggested by recon, and a ragged convective structure close to what is currently seen. Let’s see what it does with this very good initialization.

[IcyTundra]

HMON has this going over Jamaica. HWRF a little further north looks like it could go just north of the Yucatan and stay over water.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF goes north of the Yucatan however it has consistently been too far north with this system. Looks like it's gonna bomb it out again like usual.

[ElectricStorm]

HMON tracks it over the Yucatan but still gets it down to 975mb at landfall

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF 927mb into Mexico but farther N than the the others. Peaks at 921mb. Yeah I don't think thats happening.

What does concern me however is the models that show it tracking over the Yucatan (HMON and GFS) still make it a strong Cat 2 so it seems pretty clear to me that conditions in the gulf/BOC seem pretty dang good...

[Nimbus]

Ciudad Victoria in Mexico would not do well with the HWRF Cat 5 hurricane but most of the Mexican coastline in that area is sparsely populated.

[jaguars_22]

Us in Texas can thank god for the high pressure that has shown up recently! Don’t have to worry about Grace! Just hope the high stays strong through hurricane season!

[cheezyWXguy]

Us in Texas can thank god for the high pressure that has shown up recently! Don’t have to worry about Grace! Just hope the high stays strong through hurricane season!

I wouldn’t count STX out yet, though I agree it’s unlikely at this point. Should be noted that the southward shift in guidance from SFL to south of Cuba only took about 12 hours, so it could continue to shift again.

[Astromanía]

Us in Texas can thank god for the high pressure that has shown up recently! Don’t have to worry about Grace! Just hope the high stays strong through hurricane season!

While I'm getting nervous coz this can come towards me

[jaguars_22]

Who knows what could happen! That high is just too strong for anything to come above northern Mexico! All the models show the strong high…

[cheezyWXguy]

Who knows what could happen! That high is just too strong for anything to come above northern Mexico! All the models show the strong high…

All the models right now, but final landfall is 5 days out, and it takes a lot less time than that to change. It prooobably won’t, but it could…

[Iceresistance]

I've noticed that the HWRF on Grace is trending stronger than the previous runs, at this rate, it would be a modelstorm CAT 5 by 18z or 0z Tuesday, August 16th!

[wwizard]

Both HMON and HWRF are bombing this in the gulf now, HWRF will likely be stronger

Hasn't the HWRF been bombing everything lately?

[ElectricStorm]

Both HMON and HWRF are bombing this in the gulf now, HWRF will likely be stronger

Hasn't the HWRF been bombing everything lately?

Yeah it has. I don't trust it at all anymore which is too bad since it was great last year

[tolakram]

I don't like the sudden right turn after landfall.

 https://twitter.com/ECMWFbot/status/1427361252817326095

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1427359882144063494