ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

saved loop - Sandwich view

[funster]

Henri looks like quite the rain maker on the west side. Lots of inland flooding issues.

[NDG]

Henri is a great example that a storm can be over much warmer than average SSTs that at the end atmospheric conditions is what dictates the strength of a tropical system.
And then there is the actual SSTs before landfall, much warmer than average SSTs that are in the 70s are still sub 26C, not enough instability to maintain its strength when h50 temps are at -5 C, the same as in the deep tropics, is not going to cut it.

I disagree, or maybe misunderstand your post? Storms do not look "good" this far north, and if water temperatures were normal Henri would be a sloppy low end tropical storm while instead it's showing signs of organization all the way in. We have a really bad habit of downplaying storms based on looks. Review the Sandy (much larger storm) images near landfall.

My point is that just because is over above normal SSTs it will not automatically blow up into a strong hurricane as earlier shown by the models.
There is no comparison between Henri and Sandy. Sandy was a much bigger storm which became a strong hybrid system off of the NE US, the difference between the surface tropical warm temps near its CoC and much colder temperatures both to its west at the surface and up in the atmosphere is what gave Sandy its strong strength before making landfall in NJ.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[tolakram]

saved loop - convection still firing near center.

[Kohlecane]

I feel like Stephanie Abrams lost a bet or something, every time they go to her on TWC for a report she uses the term "Entities" to describe the ULL affecting Henri. She has said it 14 times in the last hour that I have counted.

[NDG]

About the strongest winds that I have seen so far, Block Island south of Rhode Island on the NW eyewall like feature reported winds gusting to 55 mph. Pressure now down to 997mb.

22 Aug 8:56 am 72 71 97 NE 31G55 1.25 Mod Rain, Mist OVC004

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/times ... aw=0&w=325

[Woofde]

Aiming for that "eyewall". Pressure has started dropping, at 998.8mb here.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1429436978039115778

[Sciencerocks]

[NDG]

I doubt the new recon will find winds stronger than 60 mph, I just can't find anything higher than that on surface reports. Unless there are stronger winds well offshore.

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1429436978039115778

That light house anemometer is at 144 feet above the surface, I only see wind gusts in the 50s in that island at the surface.

[Kazmit]

I’m impressed it looks this tropical so far north and over cool water.

[Sciencerocks]

Based on Visible this is pretty impressive with nice outflow and everything is stacked. You wouldn't think it was weakening by looking at the loop that is for sure.

[tolakram]

[jlauderdal]

I’m impressed it looks this tropical so far north and over cool water.

The tropical feed is in place, the ssts arent

[tolakram]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 221351
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1000 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND...

A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently
reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 63 mph
(101 km/h). Another Weatherflow station near Point Judith, Rhode
Island, recently measured a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and
a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h), while a station at Great Gull Island
near the eastern end of Long Island, New York, measured a sustained
wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h). The NOAA
C-MAN station at Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, recently measured a
sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 71.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Brennan

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1429444240572968961

[drezee]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1429436978039115778

That light house anemometer is at 144 feet above the surface, I only see wind gusts in the 50s in that island at the surface.

 https://twitter.com/NEChasing/status/1296489407109902336

[wxman57]

Block Island still has not recorded sustained TS wind. Gust to 65 mph though. Winds aloft are not translating to the surface well. I'd say average surface wind closer to 45-55 mph on the east side (east of Block Island).