ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 96, 2021081500, , BEST, 0, 360N, 635W, 25, 1015, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021, SPAWNINVEST, al732021 to al962021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[aspen]

Well that was quick. The original thread for this only had 3 posts before it was declared an invest lol.

I see decent potential for this. SSTs are around 28-29C, it has decent model support — mainly from the ensembles — and there are no giant islands to mess it up like Fred and Grace.

[toad strangler]

Bermuda Crew Brew

[AnnularCane]

They're declaring these invests fast these days. First 95L, now this.

[pgoss11]

Would there be any effect on the track of Grace because of Invest 96L? Could it cause a weakness in the ridge?

[LarryWx]

Would there be any effect on the track of Grace because of Invest 96L? Could it cause a weakness in the ridge?

If 96L does something differently vs the models, then that would add more uncertainty with regard to Grace since neither 96L nor Grace is in a vacuum. Now what that would actually do to Grace’s steering is a good question and also that effect would depend on exactly what 96L actually does, of course. How would it affect the WAR?

[pgoss11]

Would there be any effect on the track of Grace because of Invest 96L? Could it cause a weakness in the ridge?

If 96L does something differently vs the models, then that would add more uncertainty with regard to Grace since neither 96L nor Grace is in a vacuum. Now what that would actually do to Grace’s steering is a good question and also that effect would depend on exactly what 96L actually does, of course. How would it affect the WAR?

Exactly! Just adds another fly in the ointment. Interesting days ahead.

[Kazmit]

Bermuda Crew Brew

Bermuda crew here. Seems like we get hit every year these days.

[ElectricStorm]

My guess is we'll get Henri out of this. Hopefully Bermuda doesn't get impacted.

[Kingarabian]

Subtropics been weak sauce so far this season. Let's see if 96L changes this.

[Sciencerocks]

[CyclonicFury]

Looks like it already has a better defined circulation than Grace

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like the 0z HWRF run can get thrown out

1. A small but well-defined low pressure system located about 200 miles
north-northeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms mainly to the south and southwest of the center. Some
gradual development is possible over the next couple of days while
the system moves slowly southward near or to the east of Bermuda. By
Tuesday, however, environmental conditions are forecast to become
less conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[AlphaToOmega]

A small but well-defined low pressure system located about 200 miles
north-northeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms mainly to the south of the center. Some gradual
development is possible over the next couple of days while the
system moves slowly to the south or south-southwest at about 5 mph,
near or to the east of Bermuda. By Tuesday, however, environmental
conditions are forecast to become less conducive for tropical
cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[aspen]

SSTs are extremely warm where this will be tracking — around 29C with some pockets nearing 30C. This is probably part of the reason why the HWRF has shown a Cat 2/3 hurricane for two runs in a row. If this develops and if shear is favorable, 96L/Henri could potentially get much stronger than Fred or Grace and maybe could be the next hurricane.

[InfernoFlameCat]

SSTs are extremely warm where this will be tracking — around 29C with some pockets nearing 30C. This is probably part of the reason why the HWRF has shown a Cat 2/3 hurricane for two runs in a row. If this develops and if shear is favorable, 96L/Henri could potentially get much stronger than Fred or Grace and maybe could be the next hurricane.

That would be so weird lol. So far north

[toad strangler]

SSTs are extremely warm where this will be tracking — around 29C with some pockets nearing 30C. This is probably part of the reason why the HWRF has shown a Cat 2/3 hurricane for two runs in a row. If this develops and if shear is favorable, 96L/Henri could potentially get much stronger than Fred or Grace and maybe could be the next hurricane.

NHC just dumped ice water on this thought.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just listened to JB's video for today, and he is really bullish on this developing. I think this will develop too. Gotta take into account phase 2 of the MJO would favor this thing developing

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like the Atlantic is starting to wake up now...I personally think 96L has a decent chance of becoming Henri, but its projected path is a bit weird, so I'll see how it evolves

[AlphaToOmega]

1. A small but well-defined low pressure system located about 175
miles northeast of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some development of this low during the next couple
of days, and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly
to the south or south-southwest at about 5 mph, near or to the east
of Bermuda. By Tuesday, upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda
should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.