ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Buzzards Bay to NE of center at least has some low-end TS wind at a height of 25 meters. 45 kts and rising as the center passes.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=buzm3

[got ants?]

WTH happened? I thought Henri was circling Bermuda and heading OTS? Clicked on local news to see the warnings up the east coast. Are the models of this and previous storms off a bit this year?

[wxman57]

WTH happened? I thought Henri was circling Bermuda and heading OTS? Clicked on local news to see the warnings up the east coast. Are the models of this, and previous storms off a bit this year?

That was a week ago when initial forecasts had Henri-to-be heading off to the NE. Steering patterns change. Shifted to southern New England 4 days ago.

[NDG]

So far recon not finding any winds higher than 49 knots by SFMR.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The story with this isn't going to be the wind. It is going to be the rain on already saturated ground. There is going to be historic once in a lifetime flooding in some places.

[Visioen]

In my home town, I am experiencing high amounts of the chemical known as dihydrogen monoxide (DHMO) coming down from the sky.

For ease of reading we tend to refer to it as 'rain' here

[aspen]

Henri went from a possible hurricane landfall near me to nothing but a crummy rainy day here. Hopefully my luck continues this year and Henri isn’t too bad in RI. I am concerned about the surge heading towards Providence.

[hipshot]

WTH happened? I thought Henri was circling Bermuda and heading OTS? Clicked on local news to see the warnings up the east coast. Are the models of this, and previous storms off a bit this year?

That was a week ago when initial forecasts had Henri-to-be heading off to the NE. Steering patterns change. Shifted to southern New England 4 days ago.

Wxman57, you made reference to a potential storm Ida a few pages back, what's up with that. Also, this site map at the top of the page has this
area of yellow with an arrow from a X south of the islands off the coast of Africa, what is that, I don't see an invest designator or anything?

[Woofde]

Luckily for residents here there was very little wind. I went directly through the core and the strongest reading I had was 42mph and 994mb. Lots of rain and some choppy waves buts that's it.

[chaser1]

Sitting back and keeping tabs but I just don't seem to be hearing what (if any) storm surge impacts are occurring. I'm assuming that the "over-estimated" surface winds along with relative small size of Henri are simply not driving all that much of a storm surge event? Understandably inland flooding will be another topic altogether.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Henri went from a possible hurricane landfall near me to nothing but a crummy rainy day here. Hopefully my luck continues this year and Henri isn’t too bad in RI. I am concerned about the surge heading towards Providence.

Hopefully you are not in a flood prone area, although I think there will be lots of people who don't think they are in a flood prone area that will find that in this situation they are.

[wxman57]

Wxman57, you made reference to a potential storm Ida a few pages back, what's up with that. Also, this site map at the top of the page has this
area of yellow with an arrow from a X south of the islands off the coast of Africa, what is that, I don't see an invest designator or anything?

No disturbance yet. All models are indicating tropical development in the western Caribbean and/or southern Gulf next weekend. I'm sure there will be a thread started on it soon, if there isn't one already. An invest would require a disturbance. Won't be one until maybe next Friday or so. Early indications are a track similar to Grace.

[aspen]

Henri went from a possible hurricane landfall near me to nothing but a crummy rainy day here. Hopefully my luck continues this year and Henri isn’t too bad in RI. I am concerned about the surge heading towards Providence.

Hopefully you are not in a flood prone area, although I think there will be lots of people who don't think they are in a flood prone area that will find that in this situation they are.

The Still River often floods and the ground is already a little saturated from Fred’s remnants, but so far the rain hasn’t been as bad as expected. Forecast totals have gone down by half.

[wxman57]

Sitting back and keeping tabs but I just don't seem to be hearing what (if any) storm surge impacts are occurring. I'm assuming that the "over-estimated" surface winds along with relative small size of Henri are simply not driving all that much of a storm surge event? Understandably inland flooding will be another topic altogether.

You would assume correctly. Onshore flow of 35-40 kts does not produce much of a surge. Maybe a couple of feet.

[wxman57]

Center appears to be at the coast. Max winds 45-50 kts at landfall, but only over a very small area. General winds 35-40 kts at landfall (east of the center). Those TS sustained winds won't carry inland beyond the beaches. Gusts to TS strength in squalls inland, though. Main threat will be heavy rainfall.

[ScottNAtlanta]

NYC has reported over 4 inches of rain since last night.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Henri. Crazy rainfall.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7xlKdIPlI8

[Sciencerocks]

[underthwx]

Center appears to be at the coast. Max winds 45-50 kts at landfall, but only over a very small area. General winds 35-40 kts at landfall (east of the center). Those TS sustained winds won't carry inland beyond the beaches. Gusts to TS strength in squalls inland, though. Main threat will be heavy rainfall.

Good morning wxman57...is the cooler water temps in that region, the main player for a lower intensity with Henri?...the cyclone seemed much healthier in the past couple days...

[PavelGaborik]

What a pitiful looking system. Great news for everyone on the coast as it looked like there was potential for a Hurricane to make landfall not so long ago.