ATL: HENRI - Models

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ChrisH-UK
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#241 Postby ChrisH-UK » Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:33 pm

Seems were posting horror stories I present NCEP Hires, center over NYC.

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#242 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:44 pm

How about that Euro, better late than never. Definitely not the trend leader it used to be.

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#243 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:52 pm

12z Ukmet (977mb in prior frame)
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#244 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:13 pm

Has the time come to put NYC under watches? That is always a tough thing to do since that affects millions of people.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#245 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:14 pm

EPS are west of 6z, many tracks across NJ/NYC/LI.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#246 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:22 pm

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1428796967287656449


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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#247 Postby hohnywx » Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:44 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Has the time come to put NYC under watches? That is always a tough thing to do since that affects millions of people.


Yes, at least for a TS Watch. It's basically at the city border already.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#248 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:55 pm

Damn, and the tide cycle will be running high already this weekend because of the full moon. This could be bad people very bad if the trend verifies. :eek:
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#249 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:07 pm

18z ICON Virtually identical to 12z, just 1mb stronger at 986mb. (New York City landfall)
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#250 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:51 pm

18Z GFS coming in slightly stronger and further west (not by much).
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#251 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:02 pm

Predicted landfall for 18Z GFS. Hurricane winds do reach the coast.

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#252 Postby Kohlecane » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:05 pm

HMON looks to be further E LI
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#253 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:30 pm

HWRF
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#254 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:32 pm

HMON
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#255 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:25 pm

0z Icon, slight shift right, weaker at landfall than 18z.

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#256 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:53 pm

0z GFS Shifts slightly to the right

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#257 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:55 pm

0Z ICON intialized 6MB too weak.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#258 Postby tomatkins » Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:05 pm

BobHarlem wrote:0z GFS Shifts slightly to the right

https://i.imgur.com/qFwi4qc.gif


Of the plausible solutions this might be the best one - eastern Long Island and the stretch of coast from New London to Newport (and in fact eastern CT and western RI in general) are the least densely populated parts of the region.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#259 Postby Kohlecane » Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:27 am

GFS doing it's best to make this a RI/MA landfall shifted ever so slightly E
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#260 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:38 am

The good news this morning is that due to the shear affecting Henri longer than thought 48 hrs ago we don't have a rapid strenghtening hurricane this morning, time is closing in on it to intensify before landfall.
Both GFS and Euro show it being a fairly small system at landfall and for most of the heavy rains to be on the western quadrant of the storm due to some dry air entrainment.

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