ATL: HENRI - Advisories

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Advisories

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:22 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...CENTER OF HENRI PASSING CLOSE TO BLOCK ISLAND AS THE STORM HEADS
FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.1N 71.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from East Rockaway
Inlet to west of Mastic Beach, New York, and from north of Chatham,
Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Cape Cod
Bay.

The Tropical Storm Warning from East Rockaway Inlet, New York to
Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet New York to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Long Island
* Block Island, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 41.1 North, longitude 71.6
West. Henri is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h). A north-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed
is expected for the next few hours, followed by a turn toward the
northwest this afternoon. The center of Henri is currently passing
near Block Island and on the forecast track the center is expected
to make landfall in Rhode Island by early afternoon. Henri is
forecast to slow down and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New
York border tonight, followed by an east-northeastward motion across
northern Connecticut and southern Massachusetts on Monday.

Data from the aircraft, Doppler radars, and surface observations
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph
(95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected
until landfall occurs, followed by rapid weakening after Henri moves
inland over southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode
Island, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and
a gust to 65 mph (105 km/h). Another Weatherflow station near Point
Judith, Rhode Island, recently measured a sustained wind of 51 mph
(82 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h). The NOAA C-MAN station at
Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, recently measured a sustained wind of
49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 57 mph (92 km/h), while an amateur
radio operator in Westport, Massachusetts, recently reported a
sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing, NY to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...2-4 ft
Chatham, MA to Merrimack River, MA including Cape Cod Bay and
Massachusetts Bay...1-2 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Mastic Beach, NY...1-2 ft

Recent reports from an amateur radio operator in Newport, Rhode
Island, indicate that storm surge inundation near 1 ft has occurred,
with water reported in the streets in some areas of the city.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
tropical storm warning area into tonight. Some tree and power line
damage has already been reported across southern Rhode Island.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday,
with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches. Heavy rainfall from
Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated
moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: The risk for a tornado or two continues today across
parts of southern New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should diminish around Bermuda
later today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the
east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into
Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Advisories

#42 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:22 pm

Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1230 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...TROPICAL STORM HENRI MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF RHODE
ISLAND NEAR WESTERLY...

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA Doppler
weather radars, and surface observations indicate that the center of
Tropical Storm Henri made landfall along the coast of Rhode Island
near Westerly at approximately 1215 PM EDT this afternoon. At the
time of landfall, maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 60
mph.

A Weatherflow station near Point Judith, Rhode Island, recently
measured a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph
(113 km/h). The center of Henri passed over Block Island, Rhode
Island, around 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 1215 PM EDT...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.3N 71.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Brennan
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Advisories

#43 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:05 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 27A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Corrected initial latitude and distance to reference points in
summary block.

...HENRI SLOWS DOWN OVER SOUTHWESTERN RHODE ISLAND...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...5 KM N OF WESTERLY RHODE ISLAND
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet New York to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Long Island
* Block Island, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located by surface observations and and NOAA Doppler weather radars
near latitude 41.4 North, longitude 71.8 West. Henri is now moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected this afternoon. The
center of Henri is currently located inland over southwestern Rhode
Island. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down
further and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border
tonight, with an east-northeastward motion across northern
Connecticut and southern Massachusetts on expected on Monday.

Data from Doppler radars and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected now that Henri has
moved inland over southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from nearby surface
observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday,
with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches. Heavy rainfall from
Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated
moderate river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk
Point, NY...1-2 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing, NY to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...1-2 ft
Flushing, NY to Merrimack River, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod
Bay...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
tropical storm warning area into tonight.

TORNADOES: The risk for a tornado or two continues today across
parts of southern New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should diminish around Bermuda
later today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the
east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into
Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Advisories

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 22, 2021 3:56 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...HENRI WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL CONNECTICUT...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.6N 72.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF NEW YORK CITY
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SE OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located by surface observations and and NOAA Doppler weather radars
near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 72.4 West. Henri is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early
Monday morning. A slow turn toward the north is expected Monday
morning, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast Monday
afternoon. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down
further and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border
tonight, then move across northern Connecticut or southern
Massachusetts by Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Henri is expected to become a tropical
depression this evening and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant
low by Monday afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center, mainly over Long Island Sound. A sustained wind of
29 mph (47 km/h) and a gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) were recently
measured by a private weather station at Orient Point on eastern
Long Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to
6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long
Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast
Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday. Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12
inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New
York. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the
potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Henri at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible along
coastal areas of Connecticut and northern Long Island during the
next few hours.

SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east
coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into
Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Henri's satellite and radar signatures have continued to erode
during the day today owing to moderate southeasterly vertical wind
shear and entrainment of drier and more stable air off of the cooler
Atlantic waters. The primary rain shield has shifted into the
western semicircle, which is typical for tropical cyclones that are
in the early stages of undergoing extratropical transition. Doppler
radar velocity data from Upton, New York, and Boston, Massachusetts,
along with surface observations indicate that Henri's peak winds
have continued to decrease, with any tropical-storm-force winds now
confined to the offshore waters of Long Island Sound. Additional
spin down of the vortex and weakening of the low-level wind field
are anticipated due to land interaction and entrainment of
additional stable air. As a result of these unfavorable conditions,
Henri should weaken to a tropical depression this evening, and
become a post-tropical remnant low by Monday afternoon or evening.

Henri is now moving west-northwestward or 290/06 kt. The tropical
storm has finally made the much anticipated sharp turn toward the
west-northwest around the northeastern periphery of a mid- to
upper-level low currently located over southern New Jersey. These
two weather systems are forecast to slowly dumbbell in a counter-
clockwise motion, with Henri's circulation absorbing the other low
by Monday morning, possibly resulting in Henri stalling near the
New York-Connecticut border. By early Monday afternoon, a weak
mid-tropospheric shortwave currently moving across the Great Lakes
region is expected to eject the cyclone or its remnants eastward
to east-northeastward across southern New England and into the Gulf
of Maine by Monday night, before dissipating near or over Nova
Scotia on Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and remains close to the tightly packed
simple- and corrected-consensus track models TVCA, HCCA, and FSSE.

Although Henri's winds will be weakening, the cyclone will still
continue to be a prolific rain producer, resulting in significant
flooding across southern New England and portions of the
northern mid-Atlantic states for the next day or two.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue to lead to considerable flash,
urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for
additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions
of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and
northeast Pennsylvania.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 41.6N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 23/0600Z 42.0N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1800Z 42.6N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z 43.0N 70.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 24/1800Z 43.6N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Advisories

#45 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 22, 2021 6:49 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...HENRI WEAKENING BUT STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.7N 72.8W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM NE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Henri
was located by surface observations near latitude 41.7 North,
longitude 72.8 West. Henri is moving toward the west-northwest near
7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through early Monday morning. A slow turn toward
the north is expected Monday morning, followed by a motion toward
the east-northeast Monday afternoon. On the forecast track, Henri is
expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the
Connecticut-New York border tonight, then move across northern
Connecticut or southern Massachusetts by Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to
6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long
Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast
Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday. Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12
inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New
York. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the
potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Henri at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east
coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and continue into
Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Advisories

#46 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:44 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Henri Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SLOW-MOVING HENRI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.9N 73.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF NEW YORK CITY
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Henri
was located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 73.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h),
and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
through early Monday morning. A slow turn toward the north is
expected Monday morning, followed by a motion toward the
east-northeast Monday afternoon. A faster motion toward the
east-northeast is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Henri
is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the
Connecticut-New York border tonight, then move across Massachusetts
on Monday afternoon and Monday night and over the Atlantic on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional slow weakening is likely during the next couple of
days.

The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is
1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to
6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long
Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast
Pennsylvania through Monday. Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12
inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New
York. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the
potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Depression Henri see the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east coast
of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and into Monday. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Tropical Depression Henri. Future information on this
system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header
TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Depression Henri Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Henri has continued to weaken over land and synoptic surface
observations indicate that its maximum winds have decreased to near
25 kt. A little more weakening is likely during the next 48 hours,
and simulated satellite imagery from the global models indicate that
the system will be post-tropical after its expected re-emergence
into the Atlantic in 36 hours or so. Beyond 48 hours the dynamical
guidance suggests that the system will lose its identity.

Satellite imagery and surface data indicate that the center is
moving slowly west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. Henri is interacting
with another cyclonic circulation over the northeastern United
States. As a result of this interaction, the tropical cyclone is
expected to briefly come to a halt overnight, turn toward the
east-northeast on Monday, and continue an east-northeastward motion
into Tuesday. The official forecast track is similar to the
dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

Although Henri's winds are weakening, the cyclone will still
continue to be a prolific rain producer, resulting in significant
flooding across southern New England and portions of the northern
mid-Atlantic states for the next day or two.

This is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on Henri.
Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories
issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under
AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue to lead to considerable flash,
urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for
additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions
of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and
northeast Pennsylvania.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 41.9N 73.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 23/1200Z 42.1N 73.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0000Z 42.4N 72.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 42.8N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 25/0000Z 43.4N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Advisories

#47 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2021 7:47 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Henri Advisory Number 30
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL082021
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...SLOW-MOVING HENRI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.6N 74.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF NEW YORK CITY
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood watches are in effect across eastern Pennsylvania, southeast
New York, New Jersey, Long Island, and portions of New England.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Henri
was located near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 74.4 West. The
depression is nearly stationary at the moment, but is expected to
begin an eastward motion by later this morning into the afternoon
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3
inches, with locally higher amounts possible, over portions of Long
Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and eastern
Pennsylvania through today. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue
to result in limited to considerable flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts, along with minor to isolated moderate river
flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Depression Henri at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east coast
of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada through today. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Chenard

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 41.6N 74.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 23/1800Z 41.6N 73.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0600Z 41.7N 71.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 42.3N 68.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Advisories

#48 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:46 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Henri Advisory Number 31
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL082021
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...SLOW-MOVING HENRI BEGINNING TO TURN EAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.4N 73.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF NEW YORK CITY
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood watches are in effect across northeast Pennsylvania,
southeast New York, northeast New Jersey, Long Island, and portions
of New England.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Henri
was located near latitude 41.4 North, longitude 73.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue before accelerating later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to
locally 2 inches in New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania through
today and 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, over
far southeast New York, Long Island, and southern to central New
England through tonight. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to
result in limited to considerable flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts, along with isolated minor to moderate river
flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Depression Henri at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

TORNADOES: A isolated tornado or two is possible across Southern
New England this afternoon into the evening.

SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east
coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada through today. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Churchill

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 41.4N 73.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 24/0000Z 41.5N 72.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1200Z 42.0N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 25/0000Z 42.9N 65.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Advisories

#49 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:57 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri Advisory Number 32
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL082021
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...HENRI IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.6N 73.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF NEW YORK CITY
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood watches are in effect across portions of southeast New York
and southern New England.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri
was located near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 73.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph
(15 km/h) and this motion is expected to accelerate later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

RAINFALL: Remnant moisture from Henri is expected to produce
additional rainfall of 1 to locally 2 inches in New Jersey, eastern
Pennsylvania, and southern New York through this evening and 1 to 3
inches, with locally higher amounts possible, over southern to
central New England through tonight. Heavy rainfall from Henri will
continue to result in limited flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts, along with isolated minor to moderate river
flooding.

The flood risk associated with Henri is expected to diminish by
early Tuesday.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Henri
at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

TORNADOES: A brief tornado or two is possible across Southern
New England through this evening.

SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east
coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Churchill/Pagano

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 41.6N 73.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
12H 24/0600Z 41.7N 71.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 24/1800Z 42.4N 68.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Advisories

#50 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2021 4:03 am

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri Advisory Number 34
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL082021
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRI MOVING EAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL RISK IS ENDING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.8N 70.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM E OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no flood watches in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri
was located near latitude 41.8 North, longitude 70.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 14 mph (22
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the morning
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast this morning, with the system
dissipating by later this afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

RAINFALL: Henri may produce up to an additional inch of rain across
portions of southeast New Hampshire, northeast Massachusetts, and
far southern Maine. Additional flooding impacts are not expected.

View the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Henri at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Weather Prediction
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Chenard

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 41.8N 70.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 24/1800Z 42.1N 68.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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