ATL: HENRI - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 73.1W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the south shore of Long
Island from East Rockaway Inlet eastward to Montauk, the north
shore of Long Island from Kings Point eastward to Montauk, and from
Kings Point eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including
Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Long Island from Fire Island
Inlet eastward and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward. A
Hurricane Watch has also been issued from New Haven, Connecticut,
eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Nantucket,
Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued west of Fire Island Inlet to
East Rockaway Inlet, west of Port Jefferson Harbor, and west of New
Haven.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk
* Kings Point New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
* New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York
* West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York
* West of New Haven Connecticut

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 73.1 West. Henri is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is forecast later today, followed by a turn
toward the north tonight. Henri is forecast to accelerate toward
the north through early next week and approach the coast of
southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Henri is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Sagamore Beach, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod
Bay....3-5 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft
Kings Point, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over
southern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum
totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in areas
of flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN


Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Henri's low-level center has been peaking out from under the north
side of the deep convective mass, resulting from continued 20-25 kt
of northerly shear. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 55 kt
based on T3.5 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Henri still has a motion toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt,
but it is about ready to make the sharp right turn that we've been
expecting. A shortwave trough currently over the central
Appalachians is forecast to close off by Saturday, with Henri
accelerating northward on the east side of this feature through the
weekend. Some global models show Henri merging with the
mid-/upper-level low as the cyclone approaches southern New
England, which induces a slight bend of Henri's forecast track to
the left. Nearly all track models now show Henri's center reaching
the coast of southern New England, and the new NHC track forecast
has been nudged westward in the direction of HCCA and the other
consensus aids. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject
northeastward across the Gulf of Maine toward Atlantic Canada.

The strong shear affecting Henri is forecast to begin weakening
later today, and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it could drop to
less than 10 kt in about 36 hours. In addition, Henri will be
traversing very warm waters for the next 48 hours before it crosses
the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Therefore, strengthening is
anticipated for the next 2 days, with Henri likely to become a
hurricane by Saturday. After 48 hours, Henri's expected slower
motion over the colder water south of New England should induce
quick weakening, but it may not be quick enough to keep Henri from
reaching the coast as a hurricane. Faster weakening is anticipated
after Henri's center moves over land, and simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that deep convection
could dissipate by day 4, making Henri a post-tropical low at that
time. Global models suggest that Henri may dissipate by day 5, but
for the time being a day 5 point is being kept for continuity.

Based on the new forecast, tropical-storm-force wind radii will be
approaching the coast of southern New England in about 48 hours.
Given the still-present uncertainties in Henri's future track and
intensity and the hazards that the storm may cause, storm surge and
hurricane watches are now being issued for portions of Long Island,
Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Users
are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts
will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S.
on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain
impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island
are increasing. Hurricane and storm surge watches are now in
effect for portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and
southeastern Massachusetts. Additional watches or warnings may be
required later today.

2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of
the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding over portions of southern New England Sunday into Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 30.2N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 36.1N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 39.1N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 41.1N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 42.2N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/0600Z 43.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0600Z 45.3N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HENRI...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 73.7W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk
* Kings Point New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
* New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York
* West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York
* West of New Haven Connecticut

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 73.7 West. Henri is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is forecast later today, followed by a turn
toward the north tonight. Henri is forecast to accelerate toward
the north through early next week and approach the coast of southern
New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Henri is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Sagamore Beach, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod
Bay....3-5 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft
Kings Point, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over
southern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum
totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in areas
of flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HENRI STEADY IN STRENGTH...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 73.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended slightly westward to
Flushing, New York, including adjacent areas of western Long Island
Sound and the East River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk
* Flushing New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
* New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York
* West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York
* West of New Haven Connecticut

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 73.7 West. Henri is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected by tonight, and Henri is forecast to accelerate in
that direction through early Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri
is expected to make landfall in southern New England by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Henri is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday and be at
or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in southern New
England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Sagamore Beach, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod
Bay...3-5 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft
Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over
eastern Long Island and southern New England Sunday into Monday,
with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from
Henri will result in flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along
with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated Henri this
morning and based on the flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data, the
initial intensity is still around 55 kt. The minimum pressure has
also been relatively steady. The low-level center of Henri is
located close to the northwestern edge of the main area of deep
convection, and the vortex is still not vertically aligned due to
20-25 kt of northerly vertical wind shear. Although the intensity
of Henri has not changed much during the past couple of days,
satellite images show an improving cloud pattern with well-
established outflow in the eastern semicircle, which could indicate
that Henri is poised to strengthen.

There is some uncertainty in the exact position of Henri given the
recent aircraft fixes and the tilt of the vortex, but the initial
motion appears to be northwestward at 6 kt. A trough over the
central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight, and the
combination of that feature and a building ridge to the
east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to turn northward
tonight and accelerate in that direction on Saturday. Some of the
models show a slight bend to the west around the time Henri is
forecast to make landfall on Sunday, and there remains a fair amount
spread in the guidance in where the center of Henri will come
ashore. The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members span a region
from near New York City to Cape Cod for the landfall point. Based
on the latest consensus aids and initial position, the official
track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one and shows
landfall occurring by late Sunday. After day 3, Henri is forecast
to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine.

The ongoing northerly shear is expected to decrease later today, and
the global models show a favorable upper-level wind pattern
developing over the storm later today through the weekend. These
more conducive atmospheric conditions combined with the warm Gulf
Stream waters should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane
tonight or early Saturday with additional intensification expected
into Saturday night. By early Sunday, however, Henri is forecast to
cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and that should end its
opportunity for strengthening. Although steady to rapid weakening is
forecast while Henri moves over cooler waters south of New England,
it will likely still be at or very near hurricane intensity when it
reaches the coast. Post-tropical transition is forecast to occur in
3 to 4 days, and the new forecast shows Henri dissipated by day 5,
in agreement with most of the global models.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the
center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation and hurricane conditions are
possible beginning Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut,
Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge
Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Residents in these areas
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated
moderate river flooding, over portions of southern New England
Sunday into Monday.

3. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of
the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 30.4N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 31.5N 73.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 34.1N 72.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 37.3N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 39.8N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 41.4N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1200Z 42.4N 71.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1200Z 43.7N 69.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 73.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk
* Flushing New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
* New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York
* West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York
* West of New Haven Connecticut

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 73.8 West. Henri is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected by tonight, and Henri is forecast to
accelerate in that direction through early Sunday. On the forecast
track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England by
late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane
by Saturday and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes
landfall in southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Sagamore Beach, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod
Bay...3-5 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft
Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over
eastern Long Island and southern New England Sunday into Monday,
with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from
Henri will result in flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along
with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 73.9W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the south shore of Long
Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, the north shore of
Long Island from Oyster Bay to Montauk Point, from Greenwich,
Connecticut to Chatham, Massachusetts, including Nantucket,
Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the south shore of Long Island
from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point, for the north shore of Long
Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point, and from New
Haven, Connecticut, to west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from west of Port Jefferson
Harbor to west of New Haven, Connecticut, and for the south shore
of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway
Inlet.

A Tropical Storm Watch in effect from Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey,
to west of East Rockaway Inlet, New York, including New York City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Oyster Bay to Montauk Point
* Greenwich Connecticut to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from west of Mastic Beach to East
Rockaway Inlet
* North shore of Long Island from west of Oyster Bay to Flushing
* Flushing New York to west of Greenwich Connecticut
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manasquan Inlet New Jersey to west of East Rockaway Inlet New
York, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later tonight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 73.9 West. Henri is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected by tonight, and Henri is forecast to
accelerate in that direction through early Sunday. On the forecast
track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or
southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday and
be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long
Island or southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft
Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early
Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area and possible in the tropical storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over
Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri could
result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate
river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Henri appears to be slowly gaining strength. Deep convection has
been increasing during the past few hours and the upper-level
outflow continues to become better established on the east side of
the circulation. However, the low-level center is still located
near the northwestern edge of the deep convection due to ongoing
northerly wind shear. An ASCAT-B pass from a few hours ago showed
peak winds of around 55 kt, with the strongest winds on the
southeast side of the circulation. Based on this data, the initial
intensity is set at 60 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Henri again this evening and
the data the plane collects will be very helpful in estimating the
storm's strength and structure.

The tropical storm appears to be making the advertised turn to the
right, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 335/6 kt. A
trough over the central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight,
and the combination of that feature and a building ridge to the
east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to accelerate to the
north on Saturday. The latest model runs have generally trended to
the left again and are a bit faster, with most showing landfall in
about 48 hours. Most of the models now show a slight left turn
before landfall as Henri gets caught in the circulation of the
aforementioned trough. The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members
continue to span a region from near New York City to Cape Cod for
the landfall point. Based on the latest consensus aids, the
official track forecast has again been nudged to the west of the
previous one and shows landfall occurring on Sunday. After day 3,
Henri is forecast to eject northeastward.

The ongoing northerly shear is expected to decrease tonight, and
the global models show a favorable upper-level wind pattern
developing over the storm through the weekend. These more
conducive atmospheric conditions combined with the warm Gulf
Stream waters should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane
tonight or early Saturday, with additional intensification expected
into Saturday night. By early Sunday, however, Henri is forecast to
cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and that should end its
opportunity for strengthening. Although steady to rapid weakening is
forecast while Henri moves over cooler waters south of Long
Island and New England, it will likely still be at or very near
hurricane intensity when it reaches the coast. Post-tropical
transition is forecast to occur by day 3 and the system should
dissipate in 4 or 5 days.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the
center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin Sunday in
portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and
southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been
issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning Sunday in
western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge
Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given
by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin Sunday in portions
of Long Island and Connecticut, where a Hurricane Warning has been
issued. Hurricane conditions are possible Sunday across portions
of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and
isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island and
New England Sunday into Monday.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 31.2N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 32.8N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 35.8N 72.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 38.9N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 40.8N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 42.0N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1800Z 42.9N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/1800Z 43.8N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI TURNS NORTHWARD...
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 73.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Oyster Bay to Montauk Point
* Greenwich Connecticut to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from west of Mastic Beach to East
Rockaway Inlet
* North shore of Long Island from west of Oyster Bay to Flushing
* Flushing New York to west of Greenwich Connecticut
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manasquan Inlet New Jersey to west of East Rockaway Inlet New
York, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later tonight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 73.8 West. Henri is
now moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued
forward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through early
Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall
in Long Island or southern New England on Sunday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday
and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long
Island or southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft
Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early
Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area and possible in the tropical storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over
Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri could
result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate
river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI CONTINUING NORTHWARD WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 73.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Warning between
Greenwich, CT to Flushing, NY and Flushing to Oyster Bay, NY.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Watch Hill, Rhode
Island, east to Woods Hole, Massachusetts, including Block Island
and Martha's Vineyard. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in
effect west of East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Manasquan Inlet,
New Jersey, including New York City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including
Block Island and Martha's Vineyard.
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings may be required on Saturday Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Henri is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through Saturday, with a
turn toward the north-northwest expected late Saturday or Saturday
night. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall
in Long Island or southern New England late Saturday night or on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday
and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long
Island or southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve and
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late Saturday night or on Sunday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the hurricane watch area late Saturday night or on
Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late Saturday night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area late Saturday night and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with
isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri
may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate
river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Satellite imagery shows that Henri is becoming better organized
this evening, with the low-level center becoming more embedded in
the convective overcast and an increase in convective banding.
There has also been an increase in the anticyclonic outflow.
However, reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that this has not yet resulted in strengthening, as
the maximum winds remain about 60 kt to the southeast of the
elongated center and the central pressure is in the 994-996 mb
range.

Henri has turned northward, and the initial motion is now 010/8.
A deep-layer mid-latitude trough over the Appalachians and the Ohio
Valley will cut off into a closed low during the next 12-24 h,
while a ridge builds northward to the east and northeast of Henri.
This evolution should cause the storm to move north-northeastward
for 12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest from
24-48 h. This motion should bring the center of Henri over the
mid-Atlantic states or southern New England between 36-48 h. After
48 h, the cyclone should get caught up in the southern edge of the
westerlies and turn generally eastward across southern New England
and the Gulf of Maine. There has been little change in the
direction of the forecast guidance since the last advisory, but the
guidance is faster on this cycle through 48 h. Thus, the new track
forecast, which lies close to the consensus models, is faster than
the previous forecast through the 48 h point.

A combination of decreasing shear, improved organization, and
upper-level divergence associated with the trough to the west
should allow Henri to strengthen for the next 24 h or so, and the
new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 75 kt. After
24 h, the center should move over cooler water, and weakening
should start before landfall in the northeastern United States.
However, the cyclone is still expected to be at or near hurricane
intensity at landfall. After landfall, Henri should weaken quickly
and become post-tropical by the 72 h time. Dissipation is forecast
between 96-120 h. The new intensity forecast follows the overall
trend of the intensity guidance.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the
center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late
Saturday night or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut,
Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge
Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible
beginning late Saturday night or Sunday in western portions of Long
Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late Saturday night
or Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a
Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are
possible late Saturday night or Sunday across portions of Rhode
Island and southeastern Massachusetts.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and
isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island and
New England Sunday into Monday.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 32.3N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 34.3N 72.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 37.7N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 40.2N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 41.4N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1200Z 42.2N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 42.7N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 25/0000Z 43.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...GRACE MOVING WESTWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR MEXICO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 97.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 97.8 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, Grace
will continue to move farther inland and reach central Mexico later
today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected as Grace moves
inland over the mountains of central Mexico today, and the hurricane
is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by this afternoon, and
then dissipate on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow
during the next few hours near where Grace made landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within portions
of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico over the next few
hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico through this
morning.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San
Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches are expected through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well
as mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND
FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 73.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch east of Westport, Massachusetts has been
discontinued, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including
Block Island and Martha's Vineyard.
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 73.2 West. Henri is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today, with a
turn toward the north-northwest expected late today or tonight. On
the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long
Island or southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and
Henri is expected to become a hurricane today and be at or near
hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or
southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical
conditions possible by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result
in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

An earlier GMI satellite microwave image continued to indicate that
Henri's low-level center was still located near the northwestern
edge of the convective canopy. However, more recent geostationary
satellite imagery shows that the convection is beginning to wrap
around the northeastern and eastern portions of the circulation
suggesting that the anticipated decrease in shear is occuring, and
that Henri may be on the verge of strengthening. The latest
subjective satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remained
unchanged so the initial intensity remains 60 kt, in agreement with
those estimates and the earlier aircraft data. The next
reconnaissance aircraft mission should be in the storm around
1200 UTC this morning.

Henri is moving north-northeastward or 015/10 kt. A mid- to
upper-level low and associated trough over the Appalachians and
Ohio Valley should steer Henri north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed today. As Henri moves around the eastern portion of
the upper-low, the storm is forecast to turn north-northwestward
tonight. This motion will bring the center of Henri near or over
portions of Long Island and Southern New England on Sunday and into
the northeastern United States Sunday night. After that time, the
cyclone should turn east-northeastward as it becomes caught in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The latest dynamical model envelope
continues to narrow for the first 24 to 36 hours of the forecast
period and only small adjustments were needed to that portion of
the track. After that time, the guidance has trended to taking
Henri farther inland over the Northeastern United States, and the
NHC forecast as been modified accordingly.

Decreasing shear, upper-level divergence associated with the trough
to Henri's west, and warm SSTs should allow the cyclone to
strengthen during the next 12-18 hours. Although not explicitly
shown in the intensity forecast, Henri could still peak around 75 kt
later today or this evening. After that time, cooler waters are
likely to cause a gradual reduction in intensity, however, Henri is
forecast to be at or near hurricane strength at landfall. Once the
center moves inland over the Northeast United States, a faster rate
of filling is anticipated. The system is forecast to become
post-tropical in about 60 hours, and it will likely dissipate around
day 4, if not a little sooner. The updated intensity forecast is
near the upper-end of the intensity guidance during the first 12-24
hours, and is close to the Decay-SHIPS model thereafter.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the
center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late
tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut,
Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge
Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible
beginning late tonight or Sunday in western portions of Long
Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or
Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a
Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are
possible late tonight or Sunday across portions of Rhode Island.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and
isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island, New
England, southeast New York and northern New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 33.1N 73.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 35.6N 72.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 38.8N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 40.9N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/0600Z 42.1N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1800Z 42.8N 73.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 24/0600Z 43.3N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 25/0600Z 44.5N 62.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI IS NOW A HURRICANE...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 72.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the southern coast of New England has been
extended eastward to west of Westport, Massachusetts, including
Block Island.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Massachusetts has been
extended eastward to Chatham, including Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located
near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 72.5 West. Henri is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today, followed
by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest
on Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make
landfall on Long Island or in southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through
tonight. Although some weakening is expected prior to landfall on
Sunday, Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it reaches the coasts of Long Island and southern New England.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result
in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

The Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been
investigating Henri this morning and continue to provide very
valuable data. The Air Force aircraft measured a peak flight-level
wind of 82 kt at 700 mb, which easily supports hurricane strength,
but the initial intensity is set at 65 kt as a blend of these data
and somewhat lower SFMR winds. In addition, aircraft data indicate
that the minimum pressure has fallen to 991 mb. The NOAA tail
Doppler radar data indicate that the storm is becoming more
vertically aligned and that a more symmetric eyewall appears to be
forming. In addition, dropsonde data from the NOAA Gulfstream IV
aircraft flying around Henri indicate that the 34- and 50-kt wind
radii are a little larger than previously estimated in the
southeastern quadrant. NOAA buoy 41001 located in the northeastern
quadrant of the hurricane has recently reported 18 ft. seas.

Henri is moving north-northeastward, or 020 degrees, at 12 kt. The
steering pattern appears fairly well established now with a cut off
low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to
the east and northeast of Henri. This pattern should cause the
storm to accelerate to the north or north-northeast today followed
by a slight bend to the left on Sunday. The latest run of the GFS
has shifted to the east, but overall the models are focused in on
landfall being between central Long Island and Rhode Island on
Sunday. However, users are reminded to not focus on the center
itself, as impacts will extend well away from the center, especially
to the east. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of
the previous one and very near the best-performing models, the
consensus aids.

The environment looks favorable for Henri to continue to gain
strength through tonight with low shear, upper-level divergence
associated with the upper-level trough, and warm SSTs. In fact,
the GFS and HWRF models show the minimum pressure dropping by 15 mb
or more during that time period. By early Sunday, Henri is
predicted to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and that should
cause some weakening, but Henri is forecast to be at or near
hurricane strength at landfall. Once the center moves inland over
the northeast United States, rapid weakening is expected. Henri is
forecast to become post-tropical in 48-60 hours and dissipate in 3
to 4 days.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late
tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut,
Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge
Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible
beginning late tonight or Sunday in western portions of Long
Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or
Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island,
where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions
will begin in these areas tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and
isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island, New
England, southeast New York and northern New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 34.4N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 36.9N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 39.7N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 41.3N 72.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1200Z 42.4N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/0000Z 43.1N 71.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 24/1200Z 43.8N 69.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI MOVING FASTER...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located
near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 71.8 West. Henri is moving
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed
and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. On the
forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall on Long Island or
in southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast through tonight. Although some
weakening is expected prior to landfall on Sunday, Henri is forecast
to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of
Long Island and southern New England.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 991 mb (29.27
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result
in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 71.4W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located
near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 71.4 West. Henri is moving
toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed
and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. On the
forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall on Long Island or
in southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast through tonight. Although some
weakening is expected prior to landfall on Sunday, Henri is forecast
to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of
Long Island and southern New England.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result
in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
the potential for minor and moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

Visible satellite images and microwave data indicate that a tight
inner core has formed in association with Henri, but the convective
pattern appears ragged in infrared images. An ASCAT pass from
earlier today indicated that the 34- and 50-kt winds continue to
expand in the southeastern quadrant, and that data was used to
update the initial wind radii. The latest Dvorak estimates range
from 55 to 77 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is
held at 65 kt. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating
Henri this evening.

Henri is moving faster to the north-northeast, or 020 degrees, at 16
kt. There continues to be little change to the forecast track
philosophy. A cut-off low located over the central Appalachians and
a ridge building to the east and northeast of Henri should cause the
storm to continue moving north-northeastward through tonight. A
decresae in forward speed and a slight bend to the left is then
forecast to occur on Sunday. The latest model guidance has shifted
slightly to the right, and the NHC official track forecast has been
nudged in that direction. This forecast shows landfall over eastern
Long Island and southern Connecticut in about 24 hours. Users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as the average
24-hour track uncertainty is around 40 miles and impacts will extend
well away from the center.

The environment looks favorable for Henri to strengthen through
tonight with low shear, upper-level divergence associated with the
upper-level trough, and warm SSTs. In fact, SST analyses indicate
that Henri will be passing over a patch of very warm 30 deg C waters
this evening. By early Sunday Henri is predicted to cross the
north wall of the Gulf Stream. That should result in some
weakening, but Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength
at landfall. Once the center moves inland over the northeast
United States, rapid weakening is expected. Henri is forecast to
become post-tropical in about 48 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late
tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode
Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning
has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or
Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island,
where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions
will begin in these areas tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to
isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New
England, eastern New York and New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 36.3N 71.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 38.8N 71.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 40.8N 72.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 42.1N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1800Z 43.3N 71.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/0600Z 43.6N 69.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 24/1800Z 44.3N 68.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 71.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located
near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 71.0 West. Henri is moving
toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed
and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. On the
forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall on Long Island or
in southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast through tonight. Although some
weakening is expected prior to landfall on Sunday, Henri is forecast
to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of
Long Island and southern New England.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result
in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
the potential for minor and moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT HENRI IS MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 71.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located
near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 71.0 West. Henri is moving
toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed and a
turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. On the
forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New
England or on Long Island on Sunday. After landfall, a turn to the
north and a slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over
southern New England.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible tonight.
Weakening is expected on Sunday. However, Henri is expected to be at
or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of southern
New England and Long island. Rapid weakening is expected after
Henri makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum
totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the
potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

The convective pattern associated with Henri is less ragged than it
was 6 h ago, as the convection has increased near the center and a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a 25 n mi wide eye has
formed However, the hurricane has not yet strengthened
significantly, as the maximum winds remain about 65 kt in the
southeastern eyewall and the central pressure is near 987 mb.

Henri has moved a little to the right of the previous track at
18-20 kt during the past several hours. However, the cyclone now
seems to be moving northward with an initial motion of 355/18 kt.
There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. A cut-off
low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to
the east and northeast of Henri should cause the storm to move
generally northward tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest and
a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday, which should bring
the center near or over southern New England or Long Island between
18-24 h. With the more eastward initial position, the forecast
track is shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast.
However, there is still some uncertainty of the landfall point, as
several of the guidance models are to the left of the official
forecast. After landfall, Henri should slow its forward speed and
turn eastward as it become steered by the mid-latitude westerlies.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as the
average 24-hour track uncertainty is around 40 miles and impacts
will extend well away from the center.

Henri is almost out of time to strengthen, as the center will be
moving north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream during the next
several hours. The intensity forecast will call for modest
strengthening during the first 12 h based on the premise that
strengthening will occur before Henri reaches the cooler waters.
After that, while the cyclone should start to weaken before
landfall, it should still be near or at hurricane strength when it
reaches southern New England. Rapid weakening is expected after
landfall, and Henri is again forecast to become post-tropical in
about 48 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late
tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode
Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning
has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or
Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island,
where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions
will begin in these areas late tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to
isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New
England, eastern New York and New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 38.6N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 40.3N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 41.9N 71.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 43.1N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0000Z 43.9N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 24/1200Z 44.4N 68.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/0000Z 44.8N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...OUTER BANDS OF HENRI MOVING ONSHORE IN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.1N 71.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located
near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 71.2 West. Henri is moving
toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A decrease in forward
speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected this
morning. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall
in southern New England or on Long Island late this morning or
early this afternoon. After landfall, a turn to the north and a
slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over southern New
England.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected this morning, and
Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it
reaches the coasts of southern New England and Long island. Rapid
weakening is expected after Henri makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Hurricane Hunter data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area today, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the
next hour or two. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the tropical storm warning area beginning this morning and
continuing into tonight.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania today into Monday, with
isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri
may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over southern
New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east
coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into
Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 26...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Henri's satellite presentation has remained largely unchanged
overnight and early this morning. Deep convection remains over
the center and NWS Doppler radar imagery has revealed a convection
band that wraps around the circulation forming a loose banding-eye
feature. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has
been in the storm for much of the night has reported that the
pressure is slightly lower than earlier, around 986 mb, but the
flight-level and SFMR winds are not quite as high as before. The
initial intensity is maintained at 65 kt for this advisory. The
current reconnaissance mission will be in Henri for a few more
hours and should provide additional information on the storm's
intensity.

Henri has been moving just west of due north or 350/15 kt. The
storm is expected to move north-northwestward today around the
northeastern portion of a cut-off low over the central Appalachians.
Some deceleration is indicated by the model guidance, but this
motion should bring the center near the eastern portion of Long
Island and into southern New England later this morning or early
this afternoon. There is still a little spread in the track
guidance regarding the landfall point, but the updated NHC forecast
lies very close to the previous advisory for the first 12 hours,
and is between the multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF and GFS
which are slightly to the left. Regardless of the exact landfall
location, storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend far
from the center. After landfall, Henri should slow down and turn
east-northeastward on Monday as it becomes embedded in the southern
extent of the mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance envelope has
shifted a little westward from 24 to 48 hours, and the NHC forecast
has been adjusted accordingly.

Henri has moved north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and will
encounter cooler waters on its approach to New England. Although
some slight weakening is possible, Henri is expected to at or near
hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern New
England. Even if slight weakening does occur it will have little
difference on the expected storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts.
Rapid weakening should occur after landfall. Henri is expected to
weaken to a tropical depression by early Monday, and become
post-tropical shortly thereafter.

With the center within radar range and fairly well trackable,
hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued beginning at 600 AM
EDT (1000 UTC) to provide updates on Henri's center location. These
updates will continue as long as the center remains trackable in
radar imagery.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin this
morning in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and
southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been
issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin this morning in
portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions
will begin in these areas within the next couple of hours.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to
isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New
England, eastern New York and New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 40.1N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 41.5N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/0600Z 42.7N 72.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 43.5N 72.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 24/0600Z 43.8N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 24/1800Z 44.2N 67.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[AlphaToOmega]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 220955
TCUAT3

Hurricane Henri Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
600 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...600 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island recently
reported sustained winds of 36 mph (58 km/h) with a gust to 42 mph
(68 km/h). A Weatherflow station near Narragansett, Massachusetts
recently reported sustained winds of 33 mph (53 km/h) with a gust to
39 mph (63 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.3N 71.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
700 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...700 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently
reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph
(68 km/h). A Weatherflow station near Narragansett, Massachusetts,
recently measured a sustained wind of 40 mph (63 km/h) and a gust
to 52 mph (84 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.6N 71.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...CENTER OF HENRI MOVING CLOSER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.7N 71.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for Long Island, the southern coast of New
England, and Block Island has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manasquan Inlet New Jersey to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Long Island and New York City
* Block Island, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located by reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars
near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 71.3 West. Henri is moving
toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A north-
northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
this morning. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make
landfall in southern New England or on Long Island later this
morning or early this afternoon. After landfall, a turn back toward
the north and an even slower forward speed are expected as Henri
moves over southern New England.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening will be possible this morning, but
Henri is still forecast to be a strong tropical storm when it
reaches the coasts of southern New England and Long island. Rapid
weakening is expected after Henri makes landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205
km). A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently
reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 50 mph
(80 km/h). A Weatherflow station near Narragansett, Rhode Island,
recently measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust to
55 mph (89 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
tropical storm warning area into tonight.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania today into Monday, with
isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri
may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over southern
New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east
coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into
Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
900 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently
reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 59 mph
(95 km/h). Another Weatherflow station near Narragansett, Rhode
Island, recently measured a sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a
gust to 54 mph (87 km/h), while another station at Great Gull
Island near the eastern end of Long Island, New York, measured a
sustained wind of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph 72 (km/h).
The NOAA C-MAN station at Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, recently
measured a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph
(93 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.8N 71.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1230 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...TROPICAL STORM HENRI MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF RHODE
ISLAND NEAR WESTERLY...

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA Doppler
weather radars, and surface observations indicate that the center of
Tropical Storm Henri made landfall along the coast of Rhode Island
near Westerly at approximately 1215 PM EDT this afternoon. At the
time of landfall, maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 60
mph.

A Weatherflow station near Point Judith, Rhode Island, recently
measured a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph
(113 km/h). The center of Henri passed over Block Island, Rhode
Island, around 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 1215 PM EDT...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.3N 71.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Brennan