EPAC: MARTY - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#21 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Aug 22, 2021 4:26 pm

The upper air divergence and ULAC is absolutely absurd overkill for a developing depression, that's probably what's going to keep it alive long enough to close off a surface center if it's going to do it. Kudos to modeling predicting the upper level energy surviving that well, not every storm that crosses over that much of Mexico is able to regenerate.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#22 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Aug 22, 2021 4:28 pm

Yeah, also grace would have had no trouble hitting CAT 5 had it had another day over water, a strengthening tc takes longer to weaken than a weakening one.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 22, 2021 4:41 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#24 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 22, 2021 5:15 pm

Any other year where there's +PMM or +PDO or +ENSO, this would be a major hurricane in no time. This year, because it's so close to Mexico, it'll likely struggle.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 22, 2021 6:57 pm

1. Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located a
couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions remain
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form tonight or on Monday while the system moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph, away from the coast of Mexico. Additional
information on this system can found in high seas forecasts issued
by the NOAA National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#26 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 22, 2021 6:58 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Any other year where there's +PMM or +PDO or +ENSO, this would be a major hurricane in no time. This year, because it's so close to Mexico, it'll likely struggle.


Doubtful just because this entered the basin at such high latitude, +PMM/+ENSO at least wouldn't be enough to make this strong, or even given it's current track, +PDO.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#27 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:51 pm

I think this peaks no more than 60kts.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:52 pm

TXPZ24 KNES 222355
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 22/2331Z

C. 19.9N

D. 109.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING YIELDS DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...JLEVINE
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#29 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:55 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#30 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 22, 2021 8:02 pm

Convection appears to be trying to develop closer to the center and the old mid level rotation appears to be dying.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#31 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 22, 2021 8:07 pm

EP, 94, 2021082300, , BEST, 0, 199N, 1094W, 30, 1002, LO
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#32 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:01 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942021 08/23/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 35 35 35 34 31 26 21 17 18 19 22 25 25 28
V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 35 35 35 34 31 26 21 17 18 19 22 25 25 28
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 30 27 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 9 11 14 16 17 18 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 3 2 5 1 8 3 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 93 59 53 73 80 86 84 71 114 149 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.6 28.3 27.8 26.9 26.7 26.1 26.0 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 144 134 132 124 123 117 115 115 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 71 70 66 65 63 60 55 56 54 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 16 16 15 14 13 10 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 75 65 54 56 35 45 63 44 42 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 23 15 0 10 8 -9 -16 8 -3 -38 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 -9 -8 2 6 7 5 -1 7 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 339 319 372 483 565 746 919 1059 1176 1305 1455 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 109.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 12 10 8 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 14 16 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 356 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 20. 20. 20. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -9. -13. -12. -11. -8. -5. -5. -2.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.9 109.4

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 08/23/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 4.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.56 3.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -3.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 15.3% 13.4% 11.9% 0.0% 11.2% 9.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 3.7% 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.4% 6.3% 5.2% 4.0% 0.1% 3.8% 3.2% 0.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 08/23/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 23, 2021 12:16 am

Image

Good enough for an upgrade.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 23, 2021 12:17 am

Showers and thunderstorms association with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of
organization. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the
circulation has become better defined since early today.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development,
and if these development trends continue, a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form later tonight or early Monday
while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph, away from the coast
of Mexico. Additional information on this system can found in high
seas forecasts issued by the NOAA National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby Subtrop » Mon Aug 23, 2021 2:13 am

EP, 13, 2021082306, , BEST, 0, 199N, 1103W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 60, 60, 1008, 200, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARTY, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, TRANSITIONED, epC42021 to ep132021,
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby Subtrop » Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:44 am

WTPZ43 KNHC 230837
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021

Recent scatterometer wind data indicate that the circulation
associated with the low pressure area located a couple of hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become better defined. In addition, convective
activity has persisted and expanded over the western portion of the
circulation overnight, resulting in Dvorak T-numbers of 1.5 and 2.0
from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Both ASCAT-A and B instruments
revealed 30 to 35 kt winds over the western portion of the
circulation and based on these data, advisories are being initiated
on Tropical Storm Marty, the thirteenth named-storm of the 2021
eastern Pacific hurricane season.

Marty is moving westward at about 13 kt. A strong mid-tropospheric
ridge that extends from the south-central United States westward
across northern Mexico and the eastern Pacific is forecast to steer
Marty westward over the next couple of days. After that time, the
cyclone is forecast to weaken and become vertically shallow. This
should cause it to turn toward the west-southwest as it steered by
the low-level trade wind flow. The dynamical model guidance is in
excellent agreement, and the NHC track is near the middle of the
tightly clustered model envelope.

Although the tropical storm is currently located over warm waters,
it is within an area of moderate northeasterly shear. In addition,
it is likely to ingest drier and more stable air located to the
northwest of the system over the next couple of days. As a result,
only slight strengthening is indicated in the official forecast.
By 36 hours, Marty is forecast to cross the 26C isotherm and
gradual weakening is anticipated after that time. Less favorable
thermodynamic conditions should result in the system becoming a
remnant low in 60 to 72 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity
forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 20.0N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 20.3N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 20.4N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 20.2N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 20.1N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 20.0N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0600Z 19.8N 124.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#37 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 23, 2021 5:06 am

TXPZ24 KNES 230558
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 23/0531Z

C. 20.3N

D. 110.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...JLEVINE
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 23, 2021 5:08 am

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARTY EP132021 08/23/21 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 40 38 36 33 29 23 19 20 22 24 27 28 30
V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 40 38 36 33 29 23 19 20 22 24 27 28 30
V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 37 34 30 26 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 11 10 15 14 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 1 2 3 0 5 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 28 30 34 76 88 90 84 89 151 174 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.2 26.8 26.6 25.9 25.9 25.3 25.3 25.0 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 137 133 130 123 122 116 116 113 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 72 68 67 68 67 63 61 62 59 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 16 16 14 12 10 9 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 65 60 59 42 38 44 56 52 57 51 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 13 -12 4 12 19 -10 -2 15 -15 -48 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -14 -9 0 3 3 11 1 6 4 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 335 353 433 533 604 800 978 1123 1261 1435 1629 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 110.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 10 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 14 17 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. 15. 14. 14. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -12. -16. -15. -13. -11. -8. -7. -5.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.9 110.3

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132021 MARTY 08/23/21 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 4.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.58 3.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 16.4% 14.7% 13.4% 8.0% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.7% 2.9% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.8% 6.4% 5.5% 4.5% 2.7% 4.2% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132021 MARTY 08/23/21 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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aspen
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:04 am

Well hello Grace 2.0.

Looks like some more short-lived slop.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

AlphaToOmega
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:07 am

Wow! The model guidance is bearish!
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