ATL: JULIAN - Post-Tropical

[Kohlecane]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8776/tNcE8V.gif

llc BOOKING IT !!

[cycloneye]

A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic almost 1000 miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Little development
of this system is expected during the next day or two due while
it moves northwestward at about 15 mph over marginally conducive
ocean temperatures and is affected by strong upper-level winds.
Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This just doesn't look to me like it is going to develop anytime soon if at all

[InfernoFlameCat]

This just doesn't look to me like it is going to develop anytime soon if at all

It has a good skeleton structure. As soon as it moves out of high shear it’s going to start rapidly organizing.

[aspen]

This just doesn't look to me like it is going to develop anytime soon if at all

None of the models have this do much of anything until Thursday at the earliest. The vorticity of 97L on the GFS looks pretty bad, like it’s about to be strung out and never develop, but it does become TS Ida.

[hipshot]

2021-08-23 12:00 16.9 -38.0 25

http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al972021

Why doesn't the map at the top of this page not have invests assigned to them and when did this designation or whatever change. It is a little
confusing.

[SconnieCane]

2021-08-23 12:00 16.9 -38.0 25

http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al972021

Why doesn't the map at the top of this page not have invests assigned to them and when did this designation or whatever change. It is a little
confusing.

S2K map died a horrible death a couple months ago, they've been using the NHC map ever since.

[AlphaToOmega]

12Z surface analysis shows a closed low. Is this classifiable yet?

[Ubuntwo]

12Z surface analysis shows a closed low. Is this classifiable yet?
https://i.postimg.cc/C16MPJvr/USA-12Z.gif

No, closed low != closed circulation.

[CyclonicFury]

12Z surface analysis shows a closed low. Is this classifiable yet?
https://i.postimg.cc/C16MPJvr/USA-12Z.gif

Not even close. The convection is still sparse and poorly organized.

[aspen]

If the CMC and ICON are correct, we should see development of 97L begin sometime on Thursday, and it could be TS Ida by the end of the week.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[AlphaToOmega]

Models seem to hate Invest 97L for some reason. Conditions seem favorable, and the wave looks healthy.

[cycloneye]

. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 800 miles
southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is
expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level
winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns
eastward over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 700 miles
southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is
expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level
winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns
eastward over the open central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[captainbarbossa19]

Is there still a chance that this becomes Julian and 99L becomes Ida?

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/8489/tAoXhG.gif

Wow the northern lobe has really improved and become dominant in the last few hours. If it keeps this up, the recent model trends of extra-slow development will bust.