ATL: JULIAN - Post-Tropical

[hipshot]

The CMC supports development of this system. SSTs seem conducive enough for development in the subtropics.

I'm seeing all of these "X"'s on the map and no invest designator. Has something changed. One has been there for a week and the other two
just popped up not long ago. What's up, have things changed at the NHC?

[AlphaToOmega]

The CMC supports development of this system. SSTs seem conducive enough for development in the subtropics.

I'm seeing all of these "X"'s on the map and no invest designator. Has something changed. One has been there for a week and the other two
just popped up not long ago. What's up, have things changed at the NHC?

I believe the NHC declares invests if they want to see what the models show. For instance, HWRF can only be run on invests or tropical cyclones.

[hipshot]

The CMC supports development of this system. SSTs seem conducive enough for development in the subtropics.

I'm seeing all of these "X"'s on the map and no invest designator. Has something changed. One has been there for a week and the other two
just popped up not long ago. What's up, have things changed at the NHC?

I believe the NHC declares invests if they want to see what the models show. For instance, HWRF can only be run on invests or tropical cyclones.

So why even bother putting them on the map until they become an area of concern??

[Hammy]

I'm seeing all of these "X"'s on the map and no invest designator. Has something changed. One has been there for a week and the other two
just popped up not long ago. What's up, have things changed at the NHC?

I believe the NHC declares invests if they want to see what the models show. For instance, HWRF can only be run on invests or tropical cyclones.

So why even bother putting them on the map until they become an area of concern??

Outlook has always been five days, the map came along in (I think) 2008 or 09. Anything that has a chance within five days goes on the map, even if the chances are zero in the 48h range.

As far as I can tell, they don't seem to declare an invest until the chances are above 30%, and the 48h chances are above zero.

[hipshot]

I believe the NHC declares invests if they want to see what the models show. For instance, HWRF can only be run on invests or tropical cyclones.

So why even bother putting them on the map until they become an area of concern??

Outlook has always been five days, the map came along in (I think) 2008 or 09. Anything that has a chance within five days goes on the map, even if the chances are zero in the 48h range.

As far as I can tell, they don't seem to declare an invest until the chances are above 30%, and the 48h chances are above zero.

I've been following this site for at least 7 years and I've never seen this, something has changed.

[Teban54]

97L is now sandwiched between two SAL plumes. The fact that it's not completely dead and still fired some convection recently is kinda impressive.

[hipshot]

97L is now sandwiched between two SAL plumes. The fact that it's not completely dead and still fired some convection recently is kinda impressive.

Ok, which one is 97L, I see no designation on the map at the top of the page!

[Hammy]

So why even bother putting them on the map until they become an area of concern??

Outlook has always been five days, the map came along in (I think) 2008 or 09. Anything that has a chance within five days goes on the map, even if the chances are zero in the 48h range.

As far as I can tell, they don't seem to declare an invest until the chances are above 30%, and the 48h chances are above zero.

I've been following this site for at least 7 years and I've never seen this, something has changed.

The site's been showing the NHC map this year more than the S2K map, on that end I'm not quite sure why.

[cycloneye]

1. A broad low pressure area is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the east-central tropical Atlantic more than 800
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little development is
expected during the next couple of days due to only marginally
conducive ocean temperatures. Thereafter, however, some gradual
development is possible through the end of the week while the system
moves northwestward to northward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2021082400, , BEST, 0, 195N, 413W, 25, 1010, LO

[ElectricStorm]

97L is now sandwiched between two SAL plumes. The fact that it's not completely dead and still fired some convection recently is kinda impressive.

Ok, which one is 97L, I see no designation on the map at the top of the page!

97L is the one in the middle, 98L is the eastern one and the western one isn't tagged yet but should be 99L within the next couple days.

[galaxy401]

Up to 10/50.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri, located inland near southern New
England.

A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the east-central tropical Atlantic more than 1000
miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little development
is expected during the next day or two due to marginally conducive
ocean temperatures and strong upper-level winds. Afterwards,
environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end
of the week while the system moves northwestward to northward at 10
to 15 mph over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Subtrop]

AL, 97, 2021082406, , BEST, 0, 213N, 446W, 35, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the east-central tropical Atlantic more than 1000
miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little development
is expected during the next day or two due to marginally conducive
ocean temperatures and strong upper-level winds. Afterwards,
environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end
of the week while the system moves northwestward to northward at 10
to 15 mph over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is along 44W, from 21N southward. The wave is
moving W at 10 to 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed
near the northern end of the wave axis. Fresh to strong winds are
noted per scatterometer data on the E side of the low center.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 20N-23N between 42W-
45W. Little development is expected during the next day or two due
to marginally conducive ocean temperatures and strong upper-
level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to
become more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week while the system
moves northwestward to northward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days.

[cycloneye]

A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Little development
of this system is expected during the next day or two due while
it moves northwestward at about 15 mph over marginally conducive
ocean temperatures and is affected by strong upper-level winds.
Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1430140587353722882

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2021082412, , BEST, 0, 220N, 468W, 35, 1009, DB

[Sciencerocks]