ATL: JULIAN - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#81 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:54 pm

Up to 80/80 now. Will likely be TD11 soon
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#82 Postby Teban54 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:52 pm

97L spent the whole week looking worse than 98L until the latter became a TD, lol. Maybe 97L will get the name Julian after all.
0 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#83 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:04 pm

Took its time to get going but looks like it's finally going. Just got to really consolidate a low level center and maintain the decent convective organization it's had for a while now. Maybe it'll get named Julian as it races east; we all know Julian likes that sort of thing...

Image
7 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#84 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:04 pm

Image

Looks better then 10!
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#85 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:25 pm

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located over the central
Atlantic. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally
conducive for further development, only a slight increase in
organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression
later tonight or on Sunday. In a couple of days, the system is
forecast to be absorbed by a frontal system. The disturbance is
expected to drift eastward through tonight, then accelerate
northeastward Sunday toward the central north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
ouragans
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 464
Age: 52
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:09 pm
Location: Abymes, Guadeloupe F.W.I
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#86 Postby ouragans » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:40 pm

Invest 97L
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 29, 2021:

Location: 32.7°N 50.1°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 50 nm
0 likes   
Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is just a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.

David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris '95, Luis '95, Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#87 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:07 pm

The CSU-RAMMB site is now calling this Tropical Depression 11L. We'll have to see if NHC confirms tonight.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... r=al112021
2 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Discussion

#88 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:48 pm

Yep, confirmed TD11.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 49.7W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
1 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4161
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#89 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:54 pm

This thread should be riveting.
5 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#90 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:58 pm

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#91 Postby Teban54 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:00 pm

So what's the naming protocol if both TD10 and TD11 become tropical storms at the same time? Which one gets Julian and which one Kate?
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#92 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:20 pm

Teban54 wrote:So what's the naming protocol if both TD10 and TD11 become tropical storms at the same time? Which one gets Julian and which one Kate?


Presumably the best track decisions would be made at different times, even if minutes apart. If I remember right, both Olga and Peter were named on the same advisory in 2019 but Olga was named about a half hour prior on the BT (leading to Peter's advisory coming out first as there was less to write)
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#93 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Aug 29, 2021 5:29 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#94 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 29, 2021 5:40 am

:uarrow: Pretty sure this is 40-45mph now.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Subtrop
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 445
Joined: Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:45 pm

Re: ATL: JULIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#95 Postby Subtrop » Sun Aug 29, 2021 8:14 am

AL, 11, 2021082912, , BEST, 0, 345N, 478W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 60, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,
5 likes   

User avatar
Stormybajan
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Joined: Thu May 20, 2021 3:21 pm
Location: Windward Islands

Re: ATL: JULIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#96 Postby Stormybajan » Sun Aug 29, 2021 8:16 am

Subtrop wrote:
AL, 11, 2021082912, , BEST, 0, 345N, 478W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 60, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,

Hello Julian?
1 likes   
Sad West Indies and Manchester United fan ⚽️

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: JULIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#97 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:57 am

King Julian has arrived.

45 kt/998mb from the NHC, forecast to peak at 55 kt tomorrow before post-tropical transition.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: JULIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#98 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Aug 29, 2021 12:58 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Zonacane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 217
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:23 pm

Re: ATL: JULIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#99 Postby Zonacane » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:07 pm

By the look of it, Julian is at or near hurricane strength.
0 likes   

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: JULIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#100 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:36 pm

I'm thinking this one could make a run for Cat 1 status. It may not get there, but it could get close.
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests