ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

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Nancy Smar
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ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Aug 23, 2021 9:52 am

Only model runs here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#2 Postby kevin » Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:18 am

06z GFS shows this system but doesn't really develop it, but the 00z run did show a pretty strong storm or even hurricane (984 mbar).

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#3 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:51 am

12z ICON is aggressive, bottoms out at 950 MB

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#4 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 23, 2021 11:09 am

12z GFS is back to its old tricks of stringing out every single wave, including 97L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#5 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Aug 23, 2021 1:38 pm

Surprisingly, the 12z Euro now develops this into a high latitude hurricane. Does not look like a significant threat to land except maybe the Azores or Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#6 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 23, 2021 6:16 pm

The GFS now joins the Euro and ICON in blowing this up into a high-latitude Cat 2/3.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#7 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 23, 2021 6:57 pm

Iceresistance wrote:12z ICON is aggressive, bottoms out at 950 MB

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/icon_mslp_wind_atl_fh54-180.gif

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a pressure reading that low on the icon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#8 Postby Kazmit » Mon Aug 23, 2021 7:32 pm

Looking at the latest runs it seems like Gaston '16 could be a decent analog.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#9 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Aug 23, 2021 11:20 pm

0z GFS stalls this and makes this a major hurricane. Bottoms out at 951mb
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#10 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 24, 2021 8:30 am

The HWRF really hates this. Not only does it struggle to develop 97L, but it just can’t focus on it. Every single HWRF run ends up losing focus and wanders into the Caribbean or South America. Similar for the HWRF-P, but the field of view is wide enough to see 97L become a TS in a few days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#11 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Aug 24, 2021 11:18 pm

0z GFS shows this peak as a 995mb TS, weaker than previous runs. Also takes longer to develop so if this run were to verify, this would be Julian, and the gulf major would be Ida
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#12 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:22 am

Models seem like they're taking a hard turn away from developing this all of a sudden.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#13 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:07 am

Weather Dude wrote:0z GFS shows this peak as a 995mb TS, weaker than previous runs. Also takes longer to develop so if this run were to verify, this would be Julian, and the gulf major would be Ida


In keeping with the tradition of intense and/or high-impact "I" storms.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#14 Postby aspen » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:36 am

97L becomes a strong TS and devours 98L on the 12z ICON. It’s odd how all of a sudden, the models went from showing a Cat 2/3 to just a TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#15 Postby aspen » Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:43 pm

Finally, some development on the HWRF without it losing focus! We get a moderate TS out of this by Saturday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#16 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:33 pm

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