ATL: KATE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2021082312, , BEST, 0, 74N, 208W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024, SPAWNINVEST, al762021 to al982021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[aspen]

Jeez we have invests popping up left and right here today.

This is the newly designated 10/40 wave SSE of the Cape Verde islands, right?

[grapealcoholic]

It looks healthy, compact and really really far south

[SFLcane]

Ejects NW into the fishies.

[grapealcoholic]

Ejects NW into the fishies.

Respectfully how do we know that? Models have even picked up on it yet

[grapealcoholic]

[Hammy]

Ejects NW into the fishies.

Respectfully how do we know that? Models have even picked up on it yet

GFS/Euro/Canadian all have it being sheared at the low levels but the wave surviving and, seemingly interacting with a trough, forming around 30N or so and then going out to sea

[aspen]

Ejects NW into the fishies.

Respectfully how do we know that? Models have even picked up on it yet

GFS/Euro/Canadian all have it being sheared at the low levels but the wave surviving and, seemingly interacting with a trough, forming around 30N or so and then going out to sea

That’s 97L; 98L will probably still be south of 15N by the time 97L develops in the subtropics by the end of the week.

[grapealcoholic]

Ejects NW into the fishies.

Respectfully how do we know that? Models have even picked up on it yet

GFS/Euro/Canadian all have it being sheared at the low levels but the wave surviving and, seemingly interacting with a trough, forming around 30N or so and then going out to sea

True but a more developed wave/TS would tend to dominate the other low level features

[Woofde]

It seems 98L's path is largely going to be dependent on what 97L does. Most models have 97L making a weakness in the ridge that 98L then sneaks through.

[cycloneye]

I added the location for the members that may be confused about which system is for the invest.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Ejects NW into the fishies.

Respectfully how do we know that? Models have even picked up on it yet

GFS/Euro/Canadian all have it being sheared at the low levels but the wave surviving and, seemingly interacting with a trough, forming around 30N or so and then going out to sea

GFS always likes to take everything out to sea in the MDR initially. It is a known bias

[sma10]

Unlike 97L, this doesn't really have any model support. But we can pretend it's 2020 and just watch it.

[grapealcoholic]

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is even quite a bit of cross equatorial flow into 98L

[Stormybajan]

Honestly if the NHC didnt have the track going safely OTS then I wouldve been concerned given how nice 98L looks right now and how low it is but given the predicted area of development safely curves away that reassures me a bit

[grapealcoholic]

Easily the most vigorous wave of the season

[AtlanticWind]

Ejects NW into the fishies.

NHC had Grace headed to S Fla and out into the Eastern Gulf toward New Orleans early on
based on the models.

Most models havent even picked up on this yet.

May very well go out into the Atlantic , but I have seen to many times we need to wait and see on
developing systems and look at the trends.

Also it may not devolep at all.

[aspen]

Unlike 97L, this doesn't really have any model support. But we can pretend it's 2020 and just watch it.

It’s not like the models have done much better this year than in 2020 anyways.

[Zonacane]

Unlike 97L, this doesn't really have any model support. But we can pretend it's 2020 and just watch it.

It’s not like the models have done much better this year than in 2020 anyways.

Look forward to models missing 10 storm this year too