ATL: KATE - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

The new burst of convection could help the strong MLC bore its way down to the surface and form an LLC. With 97L not developing and not being strong enough to significantly break the ridge, 98L will probably continue going west for some time. Models have had to correct west pretty much ever since this was first designated.

[Sciencerocks]

looks good! I dare say convectively better then ida.

[galaxy401]

Looking more likely this will be Julian. Code Red now.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands
and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this
system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days before it moves into an environment
of stronger upper-level winds and slightly cooler waters. The
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward for another day
or so and then turn northward over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Kohlecane]

Ok...this was 20/40, then 20/30, and now it's 60/70.

Looking at the WV loop if anything it looks like it is being pushed just south of west. According to most of the models this needs to take a pretty drastic turn north in the next 24hrs and I just don't see it. I think the models were taking a 97L into account being much stronger than it got.

Ahh I was gonna mention this, lots of focus on IDA right now that for sure, but don't let 98 fool you, regardless of LI if any at all this invest has been hanging in there and has been impressive looking since almost 20W with it's pulsing, just makes me wonder how that next wave coming off of Africa is going to pan out. Again if it pulls N great but it has been slated to go NW for the last 50+ hours

[aspen]

Convection has really wanted overnight. Any progress it made yesterday seems to have been tossed out the window.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at visible this morning, you can see this has a rather robust LLC. It just needs one good blowup over the center and this is a depression

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

The NHC has bumped it up to 80/80 and said a TD is likely to form either tonight or tomorrow. I guess we’re going to see Julian this weekend.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles
have become a little better organized today. Additional
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression
is likely to form later tonight or Saturday before it moves into an
environment of stronger upper-level winds and slightly cooler
waters. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward
through tonight, then turn northward Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

2 days ago, it looked almost like a TD but now not so much.

[InfernoFlameCat]

98L is looking very close to becoming a Tc.

[Subtrop]

AL, 10, 2021082806, , BEST, 0, 137N, 498W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024, TRANSITIONED, alB82021 to al102021,

[ChrisH-UK]

Invest 98L is now TD-10

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0854.shtml?

000
WTNT35 KNHC 280854
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 49.9W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 49.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this motion is forecast to continue this morning. By this
afternoon, the depression is forecast to move northward, and then
maintain that general motion into early next week. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to remain over the open Atlantic well
to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Stormybajan]

Invest 97L is now TD-10

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0854.shtml?

000
WTNT35 KNHC 280854
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 49.9W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 49.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this motion is forecast to continue this morning. By this
afternoon, the depression is forecast to move northward, and then
maintain that general motion into early next week. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to remain over the open Atlantic well
to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

you mean 98L?

[ChrisH-UK]

Invest 97L is now TD-10

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0854.shtml?

000
WTNT35 KNHC 280854
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

........................................

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

you mean 98L?

Oops,thanks i've fixed it.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Almost a swirl alert. I don't really see this one getting very strong at all, maybe a weak TS, similar to the NHC forecast.

[MetroMike]

Almost a swirl alert. I don't really see this one getting very strong at all, maybe a weak TS, similar to the NHC forecast.

Supposed to maintain a depression status. Strange poleward movement for such a weak system.