ATL: KATE - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2620
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#121 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Aug 29, 2021 3:31 pm




Looks like we've got ourselves a little nudist. :lol:
3 likes   
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#122 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 29, 2021 3:40 pm

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

The depression's center has again scooted northwestward away from
the associated deep convection due to continuing 20-25 kt of
northwesterly shear. Since there has been no appreciable change to
the various intensity estimates from this morning, the estimated
maximum winds remain 30 kt for this advisory. The source of the
shear can be seen in water vapor imagery, with high-level clouds
emanating from the eastern Caribbean Sea and blowing directly into
the depression. In fact, model guidance is now indicating that the
shear may increase as high as 35-40 kt during the next 24 hours
while the depression moves beneath the subtropical jet stream, and
the NHC intensity forecast therefore now shows no intensity change
through 36 hours. By 48 hours, the system should have moved north
of the subtropical jet, and lower shear and relatively warm waters
should finally allow for some strengthening. During the latter
part of the forecast period, the NHC intensity forecast is very
close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Much of this forecast
is contingent on the depression actually surviving the next 24-36
hours, however.

The depression is moving just west of due north (355/10 kt), but
the system is expected to slow down and turn slightly toward the
north-northeast within 24 hours, ahead of the tail end of a
deep-layer trough which extends over much of the central Atlantic.
Beginning in about 48 hours, a piece of the east Atlantic
subtropical ridge is forecast to pinch off and block the
depression, causing it to turn back to the north and
north-northwest through the end of the 5-day forecast period. This
developing high looks like it will be a little stronger than
previously thought, and most of the models have shifted
significantly westward after 48 hours. The new NHC track forecast
has been adjusted westward as well, but it is not as far west as
the deterministic models and the consensus aids. Therefore,
additional adjustment may be required in subsequent advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 19.7N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 20.7N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 22.1N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 23.3N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 24.5N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 25.8N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 27.4N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 30.4N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 33.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#123 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Aug 29, 2021 5:30 pm

This is taking a while to get named.
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#124 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 29, 2021 5:38 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:This is taking a while to get named.

20-40 kt of shear will certainly keep that from happening for a while. Assuming it survives, it’ll likely get named, although it’s possible the long-tracker steals the name Kate.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#125 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:31 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#126 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:40 pm

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

The depression is looking poorly organized this evening, with the
low-level center exposed for the past several hours, and only a
small area of convection located over 50 n mi east of the center.
Strong west-northwesterly shear on the order of 20 to 30 kt due to a
nearby subtropical jet stream has been impacting the cyclone since
earlier today. A recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds of 29 kt, so
the initial advisory intensity is being kept at 30 kt. The shear is
forecast to increase even more later tonight and persist through
Monday night. If the depression survives through that time period,
then it may have an opportunity to strengthen in a few days when the
cyclone moves north of the jet stream. The official NHC intensity
forecast was little changed from the previous one, and is close to
the HCCA and IVCN consensus.

The lack of deep convection has likely been the cause of a wobble to
the northwest over the past several hours, as the shallow depression
has been steered primarily the low-level trade wind flow. The
overall motion over the past 12 h is 350/7 kt. A weakness in the
subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should induce a
generally northward motion over the next few days. By the middle of
this week, the weakness in the ridge is forecast to fill in, and
force the cyclone on more of a northwestward path. The guidance
continues to shift to the west with their solutions, as they come
into better agreement on the strength of the ridge, and the NHC
foreast has followed suit with a shift to the west. However, the
latest NHC track forecast remains to the east of all of the
consensus track guidance. Therefore, further future adjustments to
the track may be necessary.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 20.1N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 21.1N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 22.4N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 23.5N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 24.5N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 25.6N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 27.0N 51.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 30.0N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 34.0N 53.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#127 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 30, 2021 4:26 am

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

The deep convection with Tropical Depression Ten is in a sheared
bursting pattern this morning, associated with overshooting cloud
top temperatures below -80 C. A 0518 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass did
show a bit of banding associated with this activity on the 37 GHz
low-level channel. However, Proxy-Vis satellite imagery indicates
this convective activity remains located downshear of the low-level
center thanks to very strong 30-50 kt northwesterly flow associated
with a subtropical jet at 200 mb. The latest round of subjective
Dvorak estimates were 25 kt from SAB and 35 kt from TAFB. Taking a
blend of these estimates and the earlier ASCAT wind data supports
keeping the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression has resumed a northward motion this morning, with the
latest estimate at 360 degrees at 7 kt. A deep-layer trough passing
by well to the north is continuing to provide a weakness in the
subtropical ridge, allowing the cyclone to escape northward. The
system could even move a bit east of due north over the next 24-36
hours if down-shear convective bursts help to drag the low-level
center a bit right of the steering flow. After 36 hours, the
deep-layer trough moves eastward, allowing the subtropical ridge to
build back in. The net result is that the depression should turn
leftward and begin a more northwestward motion by the latter part of
this week. The latest track guidance has once again made another
westward shift this cycle after 36 hours, and the NHC track
forecast has been nudged in that direction as well. However, the
latest track is still not as far west as the GFS & ECMWF models, and
further westward adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts.

Strong upper-level flow is the primary hindrance for the depression
currently. In fact, both GFS & ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows the
vertical wind shear remaining above 30 kt for the next 24 hours as
the cyclone moves through the core of a subtropical jet streak.
Interestingly, this shearing flow seems to be mostly based in the
upper-levels, with much lower mid-level shear diagnosed by UW-CIMSS.
This lower mid-level shear may help explain why deep-convection has
not yet been completely stripped away from the low-level center.
After 36 hours, most of the guidance agrees that an upper-level low
will cut off to the southwest of the depression, providing a more
favorable upper-level environment over the system. However, it
remains unclear what will be left of the depression by that time,
and the latest 00z ECMWF, HWRF, and HMON runs suggest the vortex
will be too weak and diffuse to take advantage of the more favorable
conditions. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast will maintain
the current intensity through 48 hours, with only modest
intensification beginning after that time assuming the circulation
is coherent enough to take advantage of the more favorable
environment. The latest intensity forecast is just a bit lower than
the previous forecast, and is also lower than the HCCA and IVCN
consensus aids. It remains distinctly possible that the depression
could become a remnant low if its convection is completely stripped
away.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 20.8N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 21.7N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 22.6N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 23.6N 50.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 24.8N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 26.1N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 27.6N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 30.8N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 35.1N 53.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#128 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Aug 30, 2021 4:33 am

The GFS shows shear decreasing by August 31. I believe it could become Tropical Storm Kate then.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kohlecane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 565
Age: 32
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:03 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#129 Postby Kohlecane » Mon Aug 30, 2021 5:54 am

Pretty intense set up, Lets see if it can hold on! Very long lived system at this point! It was funny last night looking at the IR all I saw was it naked and the slighted convection trying to reach back in from the SE :D
Image
0 likes   
Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!

This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#130 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:47 am

We have Kate!

Tropical Storm Kate Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
930 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the depression has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Kate. Maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.

The intensity forecast in the upcoming 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC)
advisory will be updated to reflect the change in the strength of
the system.


SUMMARY OF 930 AM AST...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 50.9W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
4 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 723
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#131 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:49 am

Geeze, what an August this has been.
3 likes   
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#132 Postby Teban54 » Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:56 am

HurricaneEnzo wrote:Geeze, what an August this has been.

August 2021 is now at 6-3-2. While it still has fewer storms than August 2004 (8-5-2), 2012 (8-5-0) and 1995 (7-4-2), it's still very impressive, more so than August 2020 on every metric, and I bet in the top echelon of all Augusts.
Last edited by Teban54 on Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
5 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1766
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#133 Postby kevin » Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:57 am

With 6 named storms in the month of August, 2021 had/has the busiest August month since 2012 (which holds the record of 8 August storms together with 2004) in terms of the number of storms by month of naming. Taking a look at the bigger picture, 2021 is only 6 days behind 2005 with Katrina being named on the 24th of August and 16 days behind 2020 with Kyle named on the 14th of August.
1 likes   

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2620
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#134 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:20 am

Guess TD10 decided it wanted to be Kate and not Larry, and since there was the African wave out there, decided she better get herself in gear. :lol:
4 likes   
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#135 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:58 am

Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

Although strong upper-level westerly shear continues to plague the
cyclone, its satellite presentation improved early this morning as
its center moved closer to the edge of the convective cloud mass to
its east. An ASCAT-A pass from 1100 UTC revealed an area of 30 to
40-kt winds in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, with some
slightly stronger winds possibly rain contaminated underneath the
deep convection. Additionally, UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimates have
risen to around 40 kt within the past few hours, and TAFB gave a
T2.5/35 kt subjective Dvorak classification at 12 UTC. These data
support upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Kate. Its initial
intensity is set at 40 kt for this advisory, although that could be
a bit generous given recent satellite trends.

A weakness in the subtropical ridge is allowing Kate to move just
west of due north, or 355/7 kt. This general motion should continue
for the next day or so before the subtropical ridge becomes
reestablished over the central Atlantic Ocean. Thereafter, the
cyclone should move northwestward on Wednesday and Thursday along
the southwestern periphery of the ridge. By Friday, an approaching
deep-layer trough should cause the cyclone to accelerate northward
or north-northeastward through the rest of the forecast period. The
track guidance has shifted a little left of the previous NHC track,
and so the official forecast has been adjusted in that direction to
bring it closer to the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids.

The near-term intensity forecast is tricky, as the subtropical jet
stream will maintain strong west-northwesterly shear over Kate
during the next 24 to 36 h. In fact, recent satellite imagery of the
cyclone shows the center is already more exposed than earlier this
morning as the convection is waning. Kate is likely to continue
exhibiting a bursting convective pattern over the next couple of
days, which would likely result in some intensity fluctuations that
hover around the tropical-storm-force threshold. The official NHC
intensity forecast shows Kate as a 35-kt tropical storm during the
first 36 h of the forecast. If Kate survives the hostile shear
conditions, some modest intensification will be possible while the
cyclone remains over 28 deg C waters. However, Kate will encounter a
drier mid-level environment as it gains latitude, so significant
strengthening does not appear likely at this time. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one beyond 48 h, as it
shows only modest strengthening with time. By day 5, the global
models suggest that Kate could be becoming absorbed by a larger
extratropical low expected to form and deepen near Atlantic Canada.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 21.5N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 22.3N 50.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 23.3N 50.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 24.3N 50.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 25.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 26.9N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 28.4N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 32.0N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 37.0N 53.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#136 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 30, 2021 10:30 am

Oh wow I didn’t expect it to be named already. I just checked the TWC app and they still have it as a TD.

It looks like absolute garbage, but the future ahead of Kate looks decent.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#137 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Aug 30, 2021 10:31 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1992
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#138 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Aug 30, 2021 10:58 am

So, they named a naked swirl. I'll give them a pass after the week they have had
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#139 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:01 am

PDS swirl warning. All fish need to take shelter immediately :lol:
4 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2620
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#140 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:08 am

:na:

Naked swirls are beautiful.
0 likes   
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 18 guests