ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2021 1:26 pm

Only model runs here.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2021 1:31 pm

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL982021 08/23/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 38 44 50 56 60 64 68 72 73 74 73 71
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 38 44 50 56 60 64 68 72 73 74 73 71
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 31 34 38 41 45 50 56 61 63 61 57 52 47
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 24 19 9 6 13 18 23 11 8 7 6 10 14 16 25 33 37
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 1 4 -3 -6 -8 -2 0 -3 -1 0 0 5 0 3 3
SHEAR DIR 69 65 43 47 78 70 79 101 89 123 146 243 271 283 290 271 271
SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.9 27.0 26.5 26.2
POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 128 127 126 129 129 130 132 133 131 126 124 125 119 115
ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 129 128 127 126 127 124 123 122 124 125 122 120 120 112 107
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 8 7
700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 76 73 72 65 65 62 65 63 61 57 56 57 55 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 57 56 63 58 49 34 -1 -10 -44 -43 -44 -44 -40 -34 -42
200 MB DIV 15 10 11 24 44 46 -2 -12 -37 -16 -24 -19 -12 10 0 18 -3
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 0 -3 -1 -2 1 5 7 8 11 14
LAND (KM) 697 796 872 939 997 1101 1206 1249 1295 1313 1372 1511 1724 1975 1883 1814 1791
LAT (DEG N) 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.9 10.3 11.7 12.7 13.4 13.8 13.9 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 20.9 22.1 23.1 24.0 24.8 26.3 27.7 28.6 29.3 29.6 30.2 31.5 33.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 10 9 7 5 3 5 8 11 12 11 10 8
HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 8 6 4 6 7 8 11 12 8 9 11 13 2 2

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 27. 29. 31. 33. 33. 33. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 13. 19. 25. 31. 35. 39. 43. 47. 48. 49. 48. 46.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.4 20.9

** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/23/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 12.8% 8.4% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.2% 17.4% 8.9% 1.6% 1.2% 4.7% 8.4% 27.0%
Bayesian: 0.6% 10.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 3.2% 7.4%
Consensus: 3.0% 13.7% 6.1% 2.9% 0.4% 1.9% 6.5% 11.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/23/2021 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 32 38 44 50 56 60 64 68 72 73 74 73 71
18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 35 41 47 53 57 61 65 69 70 71 70 68
12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 30 36 42 48 52 56 60 64 65 66 65 63
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 29 35 41 45 49 53 57 58 59 58 56
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:49 pm

Image

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#4 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Aug 23, 2021 11:25 pm

0z GFS doesn't do much with this one
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#5 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Aug 24, 2021 1:59 pm

I feel a pulse!
Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#6 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:37 am

Euro showing development, looks like a depression or weak storm.

Image
2 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#7 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:35 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:13 pm

12z Euro moves 98L west.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:22 pm

After that goes north.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests