EPAC: NORA - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: NORA - Tropical Storm

#141 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:33 am



I'm sure that's more of a dry slot appearance than a robust eye.

Image
ASCAT possibly supports a hurricane.

Partial MW pass from GMI continues to show a lot of dry air in the core.
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Tropical Storm

#142 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:51 am

I mean if this is an eye its an instant 5.5. Need a MW pass ASAP.

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Re: EPAC: NORA - Tropical Storm

#143 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:00 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 AUG 2021 Time : 072020 UTC
Lat : 16:54:16 N Lon : 105:21:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 992.9mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.9 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -6.9C Cloud Region Temp : -70.9C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#144 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 28, 2021 5:08 am

Looks like its might be a legit eye here and a strengthening eyewall.
Image

ATMS resolution is pretty trash so hard to tell for sure.
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#145 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 28, 2021 5:57 am

Yup nothing to see here just a very dry core.
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#146 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:20 am

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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#147 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:45 am

Boy, AF301 has a long flight ahead of it. Leaving out of Keesler AFB.
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#148 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:00 am

Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Nora continues to show signs of strengthening with the center
embedded beneath a Central Dense Overcast, where clouds tops are
now as cold as -85 degrees Celsius. Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB
are T4.0/65 kt and T4.5/77 kt, and the most recent objective
numbers are near 75 kt. Nora's initial intensity is conservatively
estimated to be 70 kt, but an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft should help us verify the maximum winds later this
afternoon.

The latest fixes indicate that Nora is moving west of due north, or
350/10 kt. A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies has created
a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the southwestern U.S.,
which should allow Nora to continue moving northward or
north-northwestward through tonight. This motion will take Nora's
center and hurricane-force winds very close to or over portions of
Jalisco, Mexico, later today and this evening. On Sunday, the track
guidance suggests that Nora will make a turn back toward the
northwest, bringing the center over the Gulf of California by Monday
at a much slower forward speed. The track guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, but the narrow width of the Gulf of
California means that hazards away from the center could affect both
the coast of mainland Mexico and the east coast of Baja California
Sur. Due to this uncertainty, new watches and warnings have been
extended northward along both coasts. The track guidance--and the
NHC official forecast--suggest that Nora's center could move inland
over Sonora, Mexico, in 4 to 5 days.

Assuming Nora's center remains over water, low shear and warm waters
should allow for additional strengthening during the next 24-36
hours. After that time, possible land interaction, influences of
nearby topography, and potential ingestion of dry air from the
Mexican plateau could all conspire to cause at least gradual
weakening while Nora begins to move into the Gulf of California.
That said, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the intensity
prediction, and Nora is forecast to remain as a hurricane through
early Tuesday, a scenario supported by the ECMWF model. One thing
the models do agree on is that Nora's wind field should contract
after it passes Cabo Corrientes and heads into the Gulf of
California, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast strengthen through tonight as it moves near the
coasts of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and
southern Sinaloa, and hurricane warnings are in effect for portions
of that coastline. Interests in these areas and points farther
north should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent
updates to the forecast.

2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast
of Mexico from the Mexican states of Guerrero, northward to southern
Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rain will likely
result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these
regions. Rainfall from Nora may spread into the southwestern U.S.
and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of next
week.

3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a
hurricane by Monday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to portions of
the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora.
Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast intensity,
confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and
location of these potential impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 18.4N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 20.1N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 23.1N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 23.8N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 24.5N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 25.2N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 29.3N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#149 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:12 am

Dry air getting in from the north now. Might be getting too close to land for its own good.
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#150 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:26 am

Image

12z GFS makes this a solid hurricane in the Gulf of California despite having its inner core wrecked by Jalisco in the next 24 hours. Landfall at 18zish on Wednesday in Sonora.
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#151 Postby Chris90 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:43 pm

I’m kind of shocked and thrilled the plane is on its way out to Nora, I really expected them to divert the mission and give it to Ida instead to be honest.
She’s looking better than she was, I’m gonna be a little bullish and say I think they’ll find a Cat 2, microwave presentation is improving.
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#152 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:01 pm

Not even sure Recon will be able to fully sample the strongest winds it’s about to slam into Jalisco.
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#153 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:03 pm

...NORA STRENGTHENING WHILE AN EYE FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF JALISCO...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 105.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#154 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:53 pm

So, this is supposed to make it's way up the entire Gulf of California? This is going to bring a lot of rain to the US Desert SW. They need rain, just not all at once. Are there any record of a storm making it all the way up the GOC
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#155 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:59 pm

TXPZ25 KNES 281802
TCSENP

A. 14E (NORA)

B. 28/1730Z

C. 19.2N

D. 105.5W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS AN OW EYE TEMP SURROUNDED BY A LG RING RESULTING
IN AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 0.0. THE SYSTEM LLCC IS EMBEDDED IN MG RESULTING
IN AN EYE PATTERN DT OF 4.5 WITH THE EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE 1600Z GMI 89Z
AND 37 GHZ REVEALS THE DISTINCT EYE FEATURE WITH STRONG BANDING OCCURRING
IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE 24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING
RESULTING MET AND PT TO BE 4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#156 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:28 pm

Seems to have really degraded over the last hour. Cloud tops warning fast and eye cooling and becoming increasingly ragged. Land interaction already taking a toll.
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#157 Postby Astromanía » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:32 pm

:uarrow: Sierra Madre del Sur very near the coast, Puerto Vallarta must be getting hurricane conditions
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#158 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:50 pm

Astromanía wrote::uarrow: Sierra Madre del Sur very near the coast, Puerto Vallarta must be getting hurricane conditions


Looking at water vapor, I think it inherited dry air from the continent. Needs to become more CDO dominant in the Gulf of California when it gets there which the GFS and ECMWF agree it will do.
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#159 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:53 pm

Recon supports minimal hurricane at least. Probably a little weaker than earlier today.
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Re: EPAC: NORA - Hurricane

#160 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:09 pm

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