EPAC: NORA - Remnants

[Subtrop]

EP, 95, 2021082406, , BEST, 0, 125N, 940W, 20, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018, SPAWNINVEST, ep792021 to ep952021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[Subtrop]

A broad area of low pressure located less than 200 miles offshore of
Guatemala and southern Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this
week. The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph this week, passing offshore the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

WTPN21 PHNC 240730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 93.7W TO 13.2N 101.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 94.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.5N 94.0W, APPROXIMATELY 1752 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA.
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. A 240228Z
METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20KT
WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95E WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AS IT
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250730Z.//
NNNN

[Kingarabian]

Models keeping this too close to Mexico. Will have to develop and RI within the next 48-72 hours or else it will suffer the same fate as Guillermo, Kevin, and Marty.

[Yellow Evan]

A broad area of low pressure located less than 200 miles offshore of
Guatemala and southern Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this
week. The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph this week, remaining offshore the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF keeps this well offshore and brings this to 986 mbar.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS brings this to 975 mbar, closer to Baja than 6z.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS was actually stronger, to 958 mbar but further west more like the ECMWF.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952021 08/24/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 45 58 72 82 91 95 103 101 94 91 85 82
V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 45 58 72 82 91 95 103 101 94 91 85 82
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 40 46 52 60 71 76 72 65 58 51
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 11 11 13 15 23 16 17 11 3 4 3 5 13 15 14 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 1 0 -1 0 3 -1 6 1
SHEAR DIR 73 59 75 78 83 57 37 38 350 350 258 130 67 71 81 87 92
SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.7 29.2 28.2 26.5 26.1 26.1 25.8 25.4
POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 155 157 150 148 151 154 153 159 148 129 124 122 118 116
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -51.7 -50.7 -51.0 -50.3 -51.0 -50.5 -51.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 4 4 5 4 6 4 8 6 7 3 3 2 3 2
700-500 MB RH 86 86 88 90 89 88 85 86 84 80 78 73 71 63 61 58 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 13 14 16 21 26 27 30 31 36 37 34 35 32 28
850 MB ENV VOR 52 47 46 50 55 62 59 71 64 90 101 111 92 95 109 100 90
200 MB DIV 69 69 101 112 119 153 131 116 75 46 37 43 37 15 -55 -34 -25
700-850 TADV 0 0 4 4 5 -5 -9 -4 -1 -1 -3 -7 -3 -1 -1 0 0
LAND (KM) 307 329 311 334 363 432 447 385 252 143 230 157 328 505 656 716 729
LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 13.1 14.3 16.1 18.2 20.3 21.7 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 94.5 95.2 96.1 97.1 98.1 100.0 101.5 102.8 104.1 105.6 107.9 110.8 113.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 8 8 9 12 14 15 14 12 8 5 3 7
HEAT CONTENT 15 14 15 19 20 15 16 16 15 14 25 15 1 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 40. 41. 42. 42. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 11. 19. 24. 28. 29. 34. 32. 26. 24. 19. 14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 38. 52. 62. 71. 75. 83. 81. 74. 71. 65. 62.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.8 94.5

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 08/24/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.36 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 2.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 15.2% 5.1% 2.7% 1.0% 8.9% 42.2% 37.4%
Bayesian: 0.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 13.1%
Consensus: 0.5% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 3.1% 14.2% 16.8%
DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.0% 5.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 08/24/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low
pressure system located less than 200 miles offshore of the
southeastern coast of Mexico has become a little better defined
since yesterday. Shower and thunderstorm activity is also beginning
to show some signs of organization, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or so. The system is forecast
to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph this week,
remaining offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF comes in stronger.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 241813
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)

B. 24/1730Z

C. 12.0N

D. 96.8W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING AROUND LLCC YIELDS DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT
AGREE AND FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

Judging by its position, if this system stays far enough from Mexico it could become a strong hurricane. Don't know the exact shear forecasts though.

[Kingarabian]

Still see easterly shear.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm hoping this becomes strong so maybe it can limit 99L in the gulf

[Kingarabian]

I'm hoping this becomes strong so maybe it can limit 99L in the gulf

Wouldn't count on it. Models could be missing easterly shear + dry air this close to Mexico that will probably limit 95E. It's just a mess in this area this season.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm hoping this becomes strong so maybe it can limit 99L in the gulf

Wouldn't count on it. Models could be missing easterly shear + dry air this close to Mexico that will probably limit 95E. It's just a mess in this area this season.

Yeah considering how this season has gone, I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes another Kevin type storm. But one can hope...

[Yellow Evan]

Probably classifiable.

[Yellow Evan]

Disregard 18z GFS due to convective feedback issues.

[Yellow Evan]