EPAC: NORA - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 300241
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Nora appears to have moved inland, and it is unclear if it still has
a well-defined surface center. Earlier microwave data was
inconclusive regarding the existence of the low level center, while
the Dvorak analysts from TAFB and SAB were each unable to fix Nora's
center over water. The intensity has been lowered to 35 kt, assuming
weakening has occurred due to continued interaction with land.
Baring an unexpected redevelopment of the center over water, Nora
should continue to weaken inland, and could dissipate as soon as
early Monday. Quick dissipation is now supported by all of the
dynamical guidance. Accordingly, the NHC intensity forecast has
been adjusted much lower than in the previous advisory. Nora
is forecast to become post-tropical tomorrow and dissipate by
Tuesday. Based on recent trends, this forecast is probably generous.

Despite the uncertainty associated with Nora's position, the system
still appears to be moving generally north-northwestward, with an
initial motion of 330/10 kt. None of the dynamical guidance is able
to track a low-level center more than about 24 h. However,there is
good agreement that the mid-level remnants of Nora will continue
moving generally northwestward and could contribute to heavy rain
across northwest Mexico and portions of the southwestern U.S. during
the middle to latter portion of the week.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west
coast of Mexico from the states of Nayarit northward to southern
Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is
likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies
during the middle to latter portion of the week, bringing the
potential for flash flooding to the region


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 24.8N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 25.4N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/0000Z 26.3N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 31/1200Z 27.0N 109.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[Teban54]

004
WTPZ34 KNHC 300532
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1200 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...NORA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 108.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nora
was located near the coast of Mexico at latitude 25.0 North,
longitude 108.0 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near
12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue until
Nora dissipates inland later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Nora has become very disorganized, and is
forecast to dissipate inland later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico
from Nayarit to southern Sonora through late week as Nora lifts
northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This
rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is
possible in Baja California Sur and northern Sonora.

Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated
with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for
scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and
central Rockies.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast
of Mexico and will spread northward into the Gulf of California
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

TD now. Looks like Nora tracked too close to land for her own good. Jalisco definitely did not appreciate that however.

[Kingarabian]

GFS spot on with this one. Or maybe it didn't go further west because it didn't get as strong as advertised as was the Euro solution.

[AJC3]

Remnants Of Nora Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...NORA DISSIPATES BUT HEAVY RAINS AND MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 108.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Nora were located near
latitude 25.3 North, longitude 108.1 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general
motion should continue for the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is likely during the next 24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the remnants of Nora can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 10 inches is possible along the coast of Sinaloa
associated with the remnants of Nora. This rainfall will produce
life threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

The remnant moisture from Nora will lift across Sonora Tuesday
through Thursday producing 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches. This may produce scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.

Beginning Wednesday, moisture associated with the remnants of Nora
will bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash
flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies.

SURF: Swells generated by the remnants of Nora are affecting the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward into the
Gulf of California through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Remnants Of Nora Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

Satellite analysts have been unable to identify a low-level center
associated with Nora, and scatterometer and synoptic data show no
surface circulation. Therefore the system has dissipated and this
is the last advisory on this system. However, the moisture field of
Nora's remnants will continue to move poleward over the next few
days and could contribute to rainfall enhancement over the
southwestern United States later this week.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain associated with Nora's remnants is expected across
the states of Sinaloa and Sonora. This rain will likely result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall from the
remnants of Nora is also likely to spread into the southwestern
U.S. and central Rockies beginning Wednesday, bringing the potential
for flash flooding to the region.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 25.3N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[galaxy401]

Models, particularly the Euro, busted with this one. Nora moved way further East then the forecasts. Credit to the GFS for sticking with the Mexico landfall.