EPAC: NORA - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

Latest AMSR2 shows dry air for days:



Core is fairly large/broad and needs to consolidate for more intensification.

[Yellow Evan]

That isn’t going to cut it.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS gives up the Jalisco landfall idea, brings this into the Gulf of California and into Sonora.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 280010
TCSENP

A. 14E (NORA)

B. 27/2330Z

C. 15.7N

D. 104.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A LLCC THAT RESIDES MORE THAN 1/3 OF A DEGREE INTO A
DG OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 4.0 BASED ON A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT
IS 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT CENTER
LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 272346
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...NORA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 105.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 570 MI...815 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 105.1 West. Nora is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern
coast of Mexico tonight and pass very near the coasts of the states
of Jalisco and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then
approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Nora is a large tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring
over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will
spread to the northern portions of the warning area through Saturday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches
are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.

As Nora continues northwest, heavy rainfall will move into Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a
result.

Toward the middle and later part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Trying to wrap convection around but dry air got in.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah still looks very dry to the north with cloud tops warming.

It's too large and spiraly mixed with 10-15kts of shear and dry air. Bad mix.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

Nora's cloud pattern has not become much better organized since
earlier today. The central convection has diminished, but this is
likely a diurnal fluctuation. Upper-level outflow appears to be
fairly well-defined, with convective banding features most
prominent over the southern portion of the circulation. Dvorak
intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 55 kt, so the
advisory intensity will be held at that value for now.

The storm has been moving a little to the east of the previous
track over the past few hours, but the longer-term motion estimate
is still northwestward, or 325/9 kt. Nora should move on a
northwestward or north-northwestward heading for the next 2-3 days
on the southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone. Late
in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northward
as the ridge to its north weakens. The official forecast track has
been nudged just a bit to the east of the previous one during the
next 72 hours or so, but not as far east as the latest dynamical
model consensus, TVCE.

Nora is expected to be in a moist, low-shear environment for the
next few days, so the atmospheric conditions should favor
intensification into a hurricane. Nonetheless, the majority of the
intensity guidance does not show much strengthening beyond 24 hours,
probably due to land interaction. The official intensity forecast
shows gradual strengthening for the next couple of days or so, and
is similar to the previous one. This is close to the LGEM guidance
based on the ECMWF global model fields. It should be noted that
there is significant uncertainty in the future strength of Nora
because of the possible influence of land.


Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while
passing nearby the coasts of the Mexican states of Jalisco and
Nayarit, and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are
in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates
to the forecast.

2.Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and
Jalisco, as well as Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides are expected.

3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a
hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts
to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa,
and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast,
it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of
these potential impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.3N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 17.6N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.6N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 22.7N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 23.6N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 24.5N 109.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 26.5N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[zeehag]

is nora gonna be having airplane assessment tomorrow?? i read a rumor..... will be good to know what will be affecting us.

[Yellow Evan]

is nora gonna be having airplane assessment tomorrow?? i read a rumor..... will be good to know what will be affecting us.

Recon is set for 19z tomorrow.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS initialized too far east, once again shows this crashing into Jalisco.

[Yellow Evan]

Very banding dominant.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 280554
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
100 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...NORA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 105.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from
Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to south of Manzanillo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico
* North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 24-36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 105.0 West. Nora is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Nora is expected to approach
the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and pass very near the
coast of the states of Jalisco and Nayarit by later tonight. Nora
is then forecast to approach and move into the Gulf of California on
Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Nora is expected to become a
hurricane later today.

Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 275 miles (445 km)from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area later today. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring
over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will
spread to the northern portions of the warning area later today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

As Nora continues northwest or north-northwest, heavy rainfall will
move into the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja
California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may
occur as a result.

Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 280629
TCSENP

A. 14E (NORA)

B. 28/0530Z

C. 16.5N

D. 105.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...0.85 BANDING WITH A SMALL BREAK RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE
MET IS 4.0 BASED ON A STEADY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 4.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE
TO BANDING FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

28/0143Z 16.1N 104.9W SSMIS


...HOSLEY

[Subtrop]

14E NORA 210828 0600 16.7N 105.0W EPAC 65 983

[Yellow Evan]

With dual convective bursts, this is going places. I’m noticing a north-northeastward jog which makes a crash into Jalisco more likely.

[Shell Mound]

With dual convective bursts, this is going places. I’m noticing a north-northeastward jog which makes a crash into Jalisco more likely.

Based on current trends, along with the well-established dual outflow channels, I think Nora will likely exceed the NHC’s MSW. I think 90–100 kt is doable.

[Meteophile]

"no one cares"

 https://twitter.com/Meteophile1/status/1431518105726038016

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF brings this very near Jalisco to the point where it's inner core is disrupted.



Now moves this onshore Baja California Norte and kills it there without reaching the USA.