https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139051
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion
3 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Hypercane_Kyle
- Category 5
- Posts: 2899
- Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
- Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
This one could be quite the trouble maker if the models are to be believed.
0 likes
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1171
- Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
- Location: Nederland, TX
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:This one could be quite the trouble maker if the models are to be believed.
Yeah, and a track towards Texas = longer time over the warmest water in the Atlantic basin… upper 80’s
0 likes
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4526
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
This is gonna be a nightmare if the northern part wins out and gets into the gulf. The only things I can see that may limit it are:
1) If 95E becomes a strong hurricane, it may limit 99L's potential a bit, but considering how the EPAC season has been going so far, I'm not sure how strong 95E is going to get, and I wouldn't be surprised if it stays relatively weak.
2) If the southern part ends up winning out and developing, it won't have as much time over the gulf, but after what we just saw with Grace, it could still get strong.
Overall it looks like this one's going to have a good chance to explode in the gulf and I'm very concerned. Still a few days to see what happens of course.
1) If 95E becomes a strong hurricane, it may limit 99L's potential a bit, but considering how the EPAC season has been going so far, I'm not sure how strong 95E is going to get, and I wouldn't be surprised if it stays relatively weak.
2) If the southern part ends up winning out and developing, it won't have as much time over the gulf, but after what we just saw with Grace, it could still get strong.
Overall it looks like this one's going to have a good chance to explode in the gulf and I'm very concerned. Still a few days to see what happens of course.
1 likes
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15434
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Fnmoc Is a good source from the Navy. ATCF comming shortly.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi
Yeah they sometimes go ahead of ATCF but 99L should be in soon.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
The infamous 99L returns and could produce quite the infamous storm.
Over the last several days, models have trended away from a CAG-like setup, and now most show the wave vorticity (the northern lobe) becoming dominant. That would result in a right-shifted track, possibly through the Yucatán Channel, and a more compact system prone to intensification. We’ll have to see what happens when the AEW and Kelvin Wave begin to interact on Thursday/Friday.
Over the last several days, models have trended away from a CAG-like setup, and now most show the wave vorticity (the northern lobe) becoming dominant. That would result in a right-shifted track, possibly through the Yucatán Channel, and a more compact system prone to intensification. We’ll have to see what happens when the AEW and Kelvin Wave begin to interact on Thursday/Friday.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
It's pretty crazy that there is real potential for this to become the 2nd major hurricane in the Gulf. We barely have entered peak season.
6 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139051
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3354
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Woofde wrote:It's pretty crazy that there is real potential for this to become the 2nd major hurricane in the Gulf. We barely have entered peak season.
Yeah, I have a feeling if that does occur then we could be looking at a season with a high MH count in the end, like 6-7 majors. And who knows if we could experience the unforeseen and beat 7 majors? We will see though, but if some of these models are to be believed, then we could really see multiple major hurricanes within the next half a month or so
![Double :double:](./images/smilies/doublevision.gif)
0 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139051
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave
currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low
if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late
this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave
currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low
if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late
this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Clearcloudz
- Category 2
- Posts: 523
- Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
- Location: Rosenberg TX
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
aspen wrote:The infamous 99L returns and could produce quite the infamous storm.
Over the last several days, models have trended away from a CAG-like setup, and now most show the wave vorticity (the northern lobe) becoming dominant. That would result in a right-shifted track, possibly through the Yucatán Channel, and a more compact system prone to intensification. We’ll have to see what happens when the AEW and Kelvin Wave begin to interact on Thursday/Friday.
My understanding, of the runs w/o balloon data, 6Z is weaker than 18Z because at 18Z there are more aircraft in the air sending AMDAR/ACARS data at 18Z than 6Z.
0 likes
- galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2299
- Age: 28
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
This finally got designated. Sounds like it can cause a lot of trouble. Sure sign we are now in peak season with 3 invests.
0 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Where do I sign up for the paid version of the Euro? I want to see the 18Z.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
If the 18z GFS run would come to pass, that would be bad for Corpus Christi, and San Antonio with Houston and Galveston in the right front quadrant. In San Antonio’s case, a hurricane plus record snowfall in the same year is interesting.
3 likes
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016, Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017, Elsa-2021, Idalia-2023.
Go Gators! Go Jags!
Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016, Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017, Elsa-2021, Idalia-2023.
Go Gators! Go Jags!
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4162
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
SoupBone wrote:Where do I sign up for the paid version of the Euro? I want to see the 18Z.
Weatherbell??
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
I’m in Wharton County. I don’t want anything to do with that run of the GFS. I think that would give me sustained hurricane force winds. No thanks!!
0 likes
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8911
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
SoupBone wrote:Where do I sign up for the paid version of the Euro? I want to see the 18Z.
Windy Premium on Windy.com has that feature
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021![cold :cold:](./images/smilies/cold.gif)
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
![cold :cold:](./images/smilies/cold.gif)
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19165
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
SoupBone wrote:Where do I sign up for the paid version of the Euro? I want to see the 18Z.
weather.us is what I'm trying this year.
4 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139051
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
6 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
toad strangler wrote:SoupBone wrote:Where do I sign up for the paid version of the Euro? I want to see the 18Z.
Weatherbell??
I don't know if they have it or not.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests