ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1981
Age: 47
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#5261 Postby Blinhart » Thu Sep 02, 2021 5:18 pm

Woofde wrote:
Tekken_Guy wrote:Is this going to be worse than Sandy for the northeast? Or at least Irene?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
No it's definitely not worse than Sandy. Sandy literally wiped some communities out with it's 14 foot storm surge. Over 125 people directly died in that area as a result. Ida's flooding is horrendous, but it's not really comparable to what Sandy did.


Over 40 deaths already and they are still searching.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TheDreamTraveler
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 633
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:10 am
Location: PA

Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#5262 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Thu Sep 02, 2021 6:34 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Woofde wrote:
Tekken_Guy wrote:Is this going to be worse than Sandy for the northeast? Or at least Irene?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
No it's definitely not worse than Sandy. Sandy literally wiped some communities out with it's 14 foot storm surge. Over 125 people directly died in that area as a result. Ida's flooding is horrendous, but it's not really comparable to what Sandy did.


Over 40 deaths already and they are still searching.


Was just reading an accuweather article and the death toll is up to 45 now. Absolutely horrible. People really underestimate how easily flooding can kill people
4 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8029
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5263 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 02, 2021 6:41 pm

Two professors from a university in southern Fairfield County CT died last night trying to escape floodwaters from Ida.

As for how this freak compares to other storms, it’s the most impactful system of tropical origin since Sandy.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
TheDreamTraveler
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 633
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:10 am
Location: PA

Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5264 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Thu Sep 02, 2021 8:54 pm

aspen wrote:Two professors from a university in southern Fairfield County CT died last night trying to escape floodwaters from Ida.

As for how this freak compares to other storms, it’s the most impactful system of tropical origin since Sandy.


Yeah pretty much. Irene had hit in 2011 and then there wasn't really anything else like that since Sandy. It's definitely nowhere near the level of Sandy but it's definitely the most significant since then
0 likes   

Tekken_Guy
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 97
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:08 pm

Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5265 Postby Tekken_Guy » Thu Sep 02, 2021 9:20 pm

What made Ida so unique compared to other remnant storms that affected the area?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1981
Age: 47
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5266 Postby Blinhart » Thu Sep 02, 2021 9:36 pm

Tekken_Guy wrote:What made Ida so unique compared to other remnant storms that affected the area?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Record rainfalls, and record tornadoes.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5267 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 02, 2021 10:30 pm

So still no word on LSU2001? I saw that the user's last post was after the power went out but has been silent since then. Hopefully it's just waiting until the power is restored.
1 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

LARanger
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 82
Joined: Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:45 pm

Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5268 Postby LARanger » Thu Sep 02, 2021 11:22 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:Yes, the aerial damage viewer:
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/ida/index.html

More coverage will be added in the coming days.


They've updated with more, including the entire Pontchartrain 'coastline'.

In other news, after the local electric company sent out a message estimating September 8, we instead got power back just a few minutes ago. Oh, air conditioning, I've missed you so . . . or, more accurately, everyone subjected to my sweaty stink has.
2 likes   
Baton Rouge area cyclone dilettante, PSWAGGER* tropical weather & hydrology model developer
(* Pseudo-Scientific Wild-A** Guesses Generally Expressed Ridiculously)
The GFDL would've had all this figured out by now.

User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 541
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: North Platte Nebraska

Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5269 Postby Meteorcane » Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:17 pm

Tekken_Guy wrote:What made Ida so unique compared to other remnant storms that affected the area?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Basically Ida underwent a robust extratropical transition just upstream of the Mid-Atlantic/NY area, due to the favorable positioning of an unseasonably strong UL jet streak to its NE, and constructive phasing with a northern branch shortwave trough diving down from the Midwest. So essentially you got the robust synoptic lift associated with mid-latitude dynamics (in particular frontogenetic forcing (FGEN)), combined with the exceptional moisture associated with tropical systems... creating very high rain rates over a fairly large area. In this case it certainly didn't help that the zone of most intense FGEN forcing and thus rainfall set up near the very populated and urbanized I-95 corridor, which only exacerbated the flooding. It also hurt that much of the region was anomalously wet in August due to Fred, and most relevant for NE NJ/NYC Henri.

Additionally the low-lvl wind fields strengthened as Ida began to intensify extratropically, with increasing wind shear developing as significant thermal gradients became apparent. This generated a rather favorable environment for tornadoes near and just south of the warm front (warm fronts often are a tornadic focus due to backed low-lvl winds near the boundary and a warm and unstable airmass just south of the boundary).

The frustrating thing about this tragedy is that even this portion of Ida's evolution was quite well forecast, but I do think there is a tendency for the general public up here to not be as weather-aware to these types of events... i.e. just seeing it as another summertime rain event, and not giving it the credit it was due. This is in stark contrast to winter-time systems, i.e. nor'easters and other snow producers where the hype can reach insane levels.
7 likes   

User avatar
Pearl River
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 825
Age: 65
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2005 6:07 pm
Location: SELa

Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5270 Postby Pearl River » Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:37 pm

I was still without power in the Pearl River area this morning. I'm at my oldest son's in Picayune, so I can work. Hopefully when I get back home later today, I'll have some good news. We had a couple of very tall pines uproot, and take out the power lines. The town of Pearl River has power, but I live just outside of the town. No damage to my home, but I do have one tall pine that's uprooted, but leaning against two other pines, leaning in the the opposite direction of my house.
0 likes   

SconnieCane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 913
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm
Location: Madison, WI

Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5271 Postby SconnieCane » Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:47 pm

Meteorcane wrote:
Tekken_Guy wrote:What made Ida so unique compared to other remnant storms that affected the area?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Basically Ida underwent a robust extratropical transition just upstream of the Mid-Atlantic/NY area, due to the favorable positioning of an unseasonably strong UL jet streak to its NE, and constructive phasing with a northern branch shortwave trough diving down from the Midwest. So essentially you got the robust synoptic lift associated with mid-latitude dynamics (in particular frontogenetic forcing (FGEN)), combined with the exceptional moisture associated with tropical systems... creating very high rain rates over a fairly large area. In this case it certainly didn't help that the zone of most intense FGEN forcing and thus rainfall set up near the very populated and urbanized I-95 corridor, which only exacerbated the flooding. It also hurt that much of the region was anomalously wet in August due to Fred, and most relevant for NE NJ/NYC Henri.

Additionally the low-lvl wind fields strengthened as Ida began to intensify extratropically, with increasing wind shear developing as significant thermal gradients became apparent. This generated a rather favorable environment for tornadoes near and just south of the warm front (warm fronts often are a tornadic focus due to backed low-lvl winds near the boundary and a warm and unstable airmass just south of the boundary).

The frustrating thing about this tragedy is that even this portion of Ida's evolution was quite well forecast, but I do think there is a tendency for the general public up here to not be as weather-aware to these types of events... i.e. just seeing it as another summertime rain event, and not giving it the credit it was due. This is in stark contrast to winter-time systems, i.e. nor'easters and other snow producers where the hype can reach insane levels.


Great post, thanks for the technical details on what made Ida's impact across the Northeast so destructive. Also lack of "hype" can probably be attributed to the fact that it wasn't a hurricane coming in off the Atlantic with potentially Category 2+ strength, as Henri was once (as shown in some model solutions) thought to be.
2 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5272 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:00 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
Meteorcane wrote:
Tekken_Guy wrote:What made Ida so unique compared to other remnant storms that affected the area?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Basically Ida underwent a robust extratropical transition just upstream of the Mid-Atlantic/NY area, due to the favorable positioning of an unseasonably strong UL jet streak to its NE, and constructive phasing with a northern branch shortwave trough diving down from the Midwest. So essentially you got the robust synoptic lift associated with mid-latitude dynamics (in particular frontogenetic forcing (FGEN)), combined with the exceptional moisture associated with tropical systems... creating very high rain rates over a fairly large area. In this case it certainly didn't help that the zone of most intense FGEN forcing and thus rainfall set up near the very populated and urbanized I-95 corridor, which only exacerbated the flooding. It also hurt that much of the region was anomalously wet in August due to Fred, and most relevant for NE NJ/NYC Henri.

Additionally the low-lvl wind fields strengthened as Ida began to intensify extratropically, with increasing wind shear developing as significant thermal gradients became apparent. This generated a rather favorable environment for tornadoes near and just south of the warm front (warm fronts often are a tornadic focus due to backed low-lvl winds near the boundary and a warm and unstable airmass just south of the boundary).

The frustrating thing about this tragedy is that even this portion of Ida's evolution was quite well forecast, but I do think there is a tendency for the general public up here to not be as weather-aware to these types of events... i.e. just seeing it as another summertime rain event, and not giving it the credit it was due. This is in stark contrast to winter-time systems, i.e. nor'easters and other snow producers where the hype can reach insane levels.


Great post, thanks for the technical details on what made Ida's impact across the Northeast so destructive. Also lack of "hype" can probably be attributed to the fact that it wasn't a hurricane coming in off the Atlantic with potentially Category 2+ strength, as Henri was once (as shown in some model solutions) thought to be.


This tweed thread from Tomer BUrg on August 30th did a good job at breaking down the synoptic and mesoscale setup.

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1432497093059350535
5 likes   

User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 541
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: North Platte Nebraska

Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5273 Postby Meteorcane » Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:13 pm

RL3AO wrote:
This tweed thread from Tomer BUrg on August 30th did a good job at breaking down the synoptic and mesoscale setup.

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1432497093059350535


Yeah Tomer has excellent analysis (I follow him)... really highlights my point that the extratropical heavy rain portion of event was still well forecast and at least somewhat well messaged by pretty much the whole Met community... NWS, private sector, and academia. I mean the flash flood watch, mentioned 4-6 inches with locally higher amounts... that is a bullish flash flood watch, and obviously WPC outlooked the area in a high risk ERO, which is rare in itself.

The tornado threat did kind of come into focus a little slower than the flash flood threat, but that makes sense given that obviously it is going to be more sensitive to mesoscale factors such as the strength of the wind fields, and how far north the warm sector would push. I do know SPC and NWS PHI/LWX began ramping up their messaging on that Tuesday as the threat became more clear (Enhanced risk, beefed up tornado mentions in the briefing packages).

I am guessing the conclusions that will ultimately be drawn are that the forecasts/meteorology was good, the messaging by meteorologists was at least average, but the response by those in charge to acting on those forecasts and messaging was poor. I don't like playing the blame game, but in these situations it seems inevitable.
4 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33391
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5274 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:30 am

I'm not sure if I should self-promote, but I wrote an article on what happened in the Northeast and included the meteorology.

https://medium.com/@CC_StormWatch/why-w ... eb18cb2137
11 likes   

User avatar
Woofde
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 266
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:33 am

Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5275 Postby Woofde » Sat Sep 04, 2021 2:28 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'm not sure if I should self-promote, but I wrote an article on what happened in the Northeast and included the meteorology.

https://medium.com/@CC_StormWatch/why-w ... eb18cb2137
I enjoyed the article, thanks for sharing. The storm drainage part is underrated. I'm currently working on my landscape architecture degree. Most of our current drainage systems are extremely antiquated and rely too much on storm drains and pushing water to streams and rivers. This old school thought process has caused many of our modern drainage issues. Only recently has there been such a large emphasis on reducing runoff. As a nation we need to put a lot more money and thought into our storm water systems and landscape design to avoid the catastrophic flooding damage caused by these storms.
2 likes   

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 523
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5276 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 04, 2021 6:26 pm

Multiple Reports are coming out that a several oil spills are going on near Louisiana coast. I'm surprised this isn't a bigger story.

 https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1434137356806807553




 https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1434138969718018048


0 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1915
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise

Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5277 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 04, 2021 6:56 pm

So far, Ida is the sixth-costliest Atlantic hurricane on record. Just behind Irma.
1 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1903
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5278 Postby Teban54 » Sat Sep 04, 2021 7:24 pm

Kazmit wrote:So far, Ida is the sixth-costliest Atlantic hurricane on record. Just behind Irma.

And that seems to be only accounting for damage in NOLA (based on the news report that mentioned $50 billion). Additional damage in the Northeast will likely put Ida's damage total solidly above Irma.
0 likes   

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5279 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Sep 04, 2021 7:41 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:I believe Major Hurricane Ida could cost as much as $50G in terms of damage. This is making landfall at 130 knots, and it is going over New Orleans. Damage is likely to be less than that of Katrina because of lower storm surge, but it still likely measure in the tens of billions.

Unfortunately, this ended up being accurate
0 likes   

User avatar
MONTEGUT_LA
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 87
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2003 7:29 pm
Location: Montegut, Louisiana

Re: ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

#5280 Postby MONTEGUT_LA » Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:02 am

Sorry i couldnt get back with anyone.. my son & i were both hospitalized ....we doing much better now...but will be able to go see my property for a few more days or so...

i lost my roof and had water over my porch. I cant tell from the pics if it got in da house or not. My sister's house in houma had a tree go through the living room. My daughter trailer is totaled. Just destruction everywhere you look around.

They have no gas, water, or electric. My texas sister brought down some gas for generators and whatever they could load on a trailer and pickup... Help is now there...and neighbors are helping neighbors.
7 likes   
::::::Danny & Juan '85, Andrew '92, Lili '02, Katrina & Rita '05, Gustav & Ike '08, Isaac '12, Ida 2021::::::

::::It's been a wild ride, but you just gotta love living on the gulf coast!::::


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests