ATL: IDA - Models

[PTrackerLA]

00z Euro a little east of 12z but well west of 18z. Nhc will probably come back a little west at 4am.

[otowntiger]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E90bFUUWYAQpLwW?format=png&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E92sVy_WEAAQbtU?format=png&name=900x900

Yep- the NHC mentioned a couple models backing down on intensity- and mentioned dry air and shear at the time of LF. Seems about right.

[otowntiger]

00z Euro a little east of 12z but well west of 18z. Nhc will probably come back a little west at 4am.

Yep- you are right- they nudged it a bit back west. No shifting trend- when they make only slight adjustments back forth like that it tells me track is solidly locked in.

[CDO62]

6Z GFS

[karenfromheaven]

00Z HAFS-B

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1431598155838144518

[StormPyrate]

Post storm we usually see storms stair step across the gulf. They will wobble

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Post storm we usually see storms stair step across the gulf. They will wobble

Let the wobble wars begin

We still have a ways to go before landfall so the track could certainly go 30 miles either way.

Looking forward to dennis phillips coverage of this

[N2FSU]

12Z GFS maybe just a hair east? Maybe.


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[PTPatrick]

12 z gfs is up not ideal for New Orleans…decent little shift east with more of a Port fourchon initial land fall passing up over to BR. Puts more of western metro I-10 burbs in the dirty stuff . Basically a Betsy sequel track. Thankfully for New Orleans this should be about same strength as Betsy, but it’s nowhere near as big so surge shouldt be as large, not to mention less wind making it to the city…again, that’s only on the 12z gfs…not a forcast.

[BobHarlem]

12Z GFS maybe just a hair east? Maybe. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210828/0c4820e36d064eb839cd14e1443846ed.jpg


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Looks like Port Fourchon/Grand Isle.

[NDG]

Fairly good shift close to Nola by the 12z GFS compared to its earlier 06z run, forecasts wind gusts to at least 100 mph over the city.

[MississippiWx]

Fairly good shift close to Nola by the 12z GFS compared to its earlier 06z run, forecasts wind gusts to at least 100 mph over the city.

https://i.imgur.com/w5Ztu7q.gif

Most every 12z model I’ve seen so far has moved over to more of a Fourchon/Grand Isle landfall. Still waiting for UK, Euro, and the hurricane models.

[aspen]

HWRF has a Cat 4 by 06z tomorrow morning.

[PTPatrick]

HWRF maybe looking a tad stronger at 12z…tad northeast of prior track at 24 hr point, so probably along with gfs shifting more toward Eastern Terrebonne, than western.

[gatorcane]

12z GFS simulated IR, looks to hit NOLA hard this run:

[Shell Mound]

12z GFS simulated IR, looks to hit NOLA hard this run:

https://i.postimg.cc/2SVGh8bN/gfs-ir-09-L-fh1-55.gif

The eastward shift also indicates that shear would not affect Ida until after landfall, at least on this run. The system steadily intensifies up until LF.

[StormPyrate]

952 right at land fall, that us up from 933 yesterday
bottoms out at 949

[tolakram]

HWRF landfall

[Airboy]

Euro Z12 trending a bit east if I see right