ATL: IDA - Models

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GeneratorPower
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1021 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:16 pm

Airboy wrote:Euro Z12 trending a bit east if I see right

Definite east shift in Euro 12z. Pretty much a worst case scenario for New Orleans if this verifies. SE approach to New Orleans. Right front quadrant winds will pile water into Lake Ponch. And surge will be maximized from this approach angle. If this verifies I believe surge will be equal to or greater than that K storm in the greater New Orleans area. This is not a forecast. Follow official NHC forecasts and heed voluntary evac since mandatory evac is not in effect.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1022 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:30 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
Airboy wrote:Euro Z12 trending a bit east if I see right

Definite east shift in Euro 12z. Pretty much a worst case scenario for New Orleans if this verifies. SE approach to New Orleans. Right front quadrant winds will pile water into Lake Ponch. And surge will be maximized from this approach angle. If this verifies I believe surge will be equal to or greater than that K storm in the greater New Orleans area. This is not a forecast. Follow official NHC forecasts and heed voluntary evac since mandatory evac is not in effect.


Not sure if anybody has animations of shorter time frames, but on tropical tidbits it’s a bit tougher to tell becuase what happens between 24 and 48 is so key. It could still hit a bit more like Morgan city and curve back. It wouldn’t be a linear point tk point track. Either way it does appear to be some eastward shift which is not good for Nola regardless.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1023 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:31 pm

12Z Euro
Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1024 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:32 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1025 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:35 pm

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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1026 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:36 pm

Euro has been a bit of a left outlier so doing a mental adjustment east is bad news for New Orleans. Probably will come in somewhere around Port Fourchon and it'll be a very close call whether new orleans avoids the eyewall or not.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1027 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:37 pm



Fabulous work tolakram!

In all seriousness… a few miles here in there probably won’t matter a great deal at the end of the of the day. But As many pros on Twitter have indicated, and has been discussed here, ida has hugged right side of guidance almost since inception. So while I am inclined to accept Port fourchon to Houma being the ground zero eye crossing area, I would be utterly unsurprised to see it land on grand isle and go over the western half New Orleans. And as much as we shouldn’t focus on the eye land fall over toward Morgan city V’s grand isle will make a world of difference to the city and points east.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1028 Postby jaxfladude » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:12 pm

There are no words if the models are accurate about Ida striking near or over New Orleans metro area...and worst part of the hurricane impacts there. Some place(s) will never be the same again after Ida. "I" name curse claims another.......hopefully all are heeding the advice and orders of the NHC NWS and local government officials.......Prayers!
Things will change.
Edit...see post of tweet two posts down...
Last edited by jaxfladude on Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1029 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:27 pm

jaxfladude wrote:There are no words if the models are accurate about Ida striking near or over New Orleans metro area...and worst part of the hurricane impacts there. Some place(s) will never be the same again after Ida. "I" name curse claims another.......hopefully all are heeding the advice and orders of the NHC NWS and local government officials.......Prayers!
Things will change.


Indeed, I was watching Fox New Orleans on my TV (thank you smart tv, I can watch the weather from just about anywhere) and the pro met said if Ida shifts east 15 - 20 miles eastward at landfall it could be disastrous for the Big Easy.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1030 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:29 pm

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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1031 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:59 pm

Looks like 18z models have shifted east some.

Image
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1032 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:14 pm

PandaCitrus wrote:Looks like 18z models have shifted east some.

Image
A little east on trajectory and a wobble at the end puts NO in the eyewall
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1033 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:22 pm

If the eye is 25-30 miles wide, the western suburbs would be in the eye and New Orleans right front quadrant of the eyewall in those far eastern models.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1034 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:22 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
PandaCitrus wrote:Looks like 18z models have shifted east some.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_tracks_latest.png
A little east on trajectory and a wobble at the end puts NO in the eyewall



That aint good
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1035 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:28 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
Airboy wrote:Euro Z12 trending a bit east if I see right

Definite east shift in Euro 12z. Pretty much a worst case scenario for New Orleans if this verifies. SE approach to New Orleans. Right front quadrant winds will pile water into Lake Ponch. And surge will be maximized from this approach angle. If this verifies I believe surge will be equal to or greater than that K storm in the greater New Orleans area. This is not a forecast. Follow official NHC forecasts and heed voluntary evac since mandatory evac is not in effect.


I'm pretty sure Ida would have to be even more east than that to be a worst case scenario for new orleans in terms of surge and flooding. Regardless the closer it gets the worse it's going to be. Ida would need a track similar to Georges in 1998 to be a worst case scenario. At this point it's turning into a 2nd worst case scenario for them if it keeps adjusting east :/
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1036 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:57 pm

PandaCitrus wrote:If the eye is 25-30 miles wide, the western suburbs would be in the eye and New Orleans right front quadrant of the eyewall in those far eastern models.
And a massive surge on the ne quad
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1037 Postby Blinhart » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:26 pm

TheDreamTraveler wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
Airboy wrote:Euro Z12 trending a bit east if I see right

Definite east shift in Euro 12z. Pretty much a worst case scenario for New Orleans if this verifies. SE approach to New Orleans. Right front quadrant winds will pile water into Lake Ponch. And surge will be maximized from this approach angle. If this verifies I believe surge will be equal to or greater than that K storm in the greater New Orleans area. This is not a forecast. Follow official NHC forecasts and heed voluntary evac since mandatory evac is not in effect.


I'm pretty sure Ida would have to be even more east than that to be a worst case scenario for new orleans in terms of surge and flooding. Regardless the closer it gets the worse it's going to be. Ida would need a track similar to Georges in 1998 to be a worst case scenario. At this point it's turning into a 2nd worst case scenario for them if it keeps adjusting east :/


I think the only worse case scenario is if a Cat 5 comes in and stalls just off the coast at Port Fourchon.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1038 Postby facemane » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:41 pm

TheDreamTraveler wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
Airboy wrote:Euro Z12 trending a bit east if I see right

Definite east shift in Euro 12z. Pretty much a worst case scenario for New Orleans if this verifies. SE approach to New Orleans. Right front quadrant winds will pile water into Lake Ponch. And surge will be maximized from this approach angle. If this verifies I believe surge will be equal to or greater than that K storm in the greater New Orleans area. This is not a forecast. Follow official NHC forecasts and heed voluntary evac since mandatory evac is not in effect.


I'm pretty sure Ida would have to be even more east than that to be a worst case scenario for new orleans in terms of surge and flooding. Regardless the closer it gets the worse it's going to be. Ida would need a track similar to Georges in 1998 to be a worst case scenario. At this point it's turning into a 2nd worst case scenario for them if it keeps adjusting east :/


agreed wit the Georges type track. I remember watching Joe Bastardi during the Katrina coverage. He said the worst case scenario for Nola was the eye
of a major hurricane passing directly over lake Borgne from the SE. The water would be pushed into lake Pontchartrain. The water from both lakes would then inundate
the entire city. Nola would also be dealing with high winds as well as massive flooding.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1039 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 28, 2021 5:07 pm

18z gfs is in not much track change at all…no comfort for nola though since I think it’s been right of gfs for a while. Main change is it’s depicting a lower pressure center at landfall…953 down from 966 on 12z. So gfs thinking people writing ida’s eulogy too soon. Simulated IR depicting most of the metro in the eyewall.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1040 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Aug 28, 2021 5:55 pm

18Z HMON 129 knots at landfall :eek:
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