ATL: IDA - Models

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PTPatrick
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1041 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:00 pm

And Hwrf depicting 952 mb in 12 hrs and 130 mph.
And 944 at 18 with 140 mph nearing landfall.
24 hrs landfall over terrebonne Parish, 140 mph

Good bit stronger than prior runs.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1042 Postby Kohlecane » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:29 pm

PTPatrick wrote:And Hwrf depicting 952 mb in 12 hrs and 130 mph.
And 944 at 18 with 140 mph nearing landfall.
24 hrs landfall over terrebonne Parish, 140 mph

Good bit stronger than prior runs.

Very interesting, and only about 24 out :eek:
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1043 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:33 pm

18Z HWRF:

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1044 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:36 pm

18Z GFS:

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1045 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:00 pm

Really bad model trend east of track for New Orleans right now. They are in greater danger of getting hit with the eastern eyewall.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1431755318623625221


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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1046 Postby sikkar » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:44 pm

Do models still show intensification till land fall?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1047 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:15 pm

sikkar wrote:Do models still show intensification till land fall?


Yep, every one does, some stronger than others.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1048 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 29, 2021 7:50 am

For documentation, HWRF last run I'll post. Init too high, strength too low. Shows strengthening all the way in.

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1049 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:34 pm

I did not payed much atention to the models so my question is now that Ida made landfall, which one(s) performed the best?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1050 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:I did not payed much atention to the models so my question is now that Ida made landfall, which one(s) performed the best?


They all were running a bit too west near /after landfall for most of this forecast period but did really well. They all sort of adjusted together for the most part. Euro probably had a more pronounced west bias overall though, also hmon. Honestly they didn’t pick up on the more eastern landfall and track until late last night.
Hwrf nailed intensity.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1051 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:I did not payed much atention to the models so my question is now that Ida made landfall, which one(s) performed the best?


Euro did good early on showing a Louisiana landfall while other models like the GFS were still insisting on a North Mexico or South Texas landfall.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1052 Postby longhorn2004 » Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:32 pm

Isn't Ida suppose to be sucking in dry air by now? Its one of the reason for the rapid reduction from Cat 4 to Cat 1. Suppose to be sucking in cool air from the northwest.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1053 Postby kevin » Mon Aug 30, 2021 3:29 am

The very first mention of New Orleans in this thread was regarding the 00z CMC run on the 25th of August. 06z GFS on the 25th of August also showed landfall just west of the city.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1054 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 30, 2021 6:53 am

kevin wrote:The very first mention of New Orleans in this thread was regarding the 00z CMC run on the 25th of August. 06z GFS on the 25th of August also showed landfall just west of the city.


The CMC always hits New Orleans. It had to be right at some point.

This site at UAA tracks model verification for storms. Here's Ida: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... /al092021/

Unfortunately these don't go back very far.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#1055 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 30, 2021 7:12 am

Here's trend gifs from Tropical Tidbits for all the models that have them available. Remember to look at run time in the upper left. I am noting the date above each model where it first is close to an LA landfall.

Aug 25th
Image

Aug 25th (late, penalized for having timing wrong)
Image

Aug 26th (also timing wrong, tough call)
Image

Aug 26th (not a lot of runs, and also timing. Pretty good for a model many ignore)
Image

Whatever. (Limited runs, I went back manually and the storm just isn't there. If you love NAVGEM then check my work ... Steve :D )
Image
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