ATL: IDA - Models

[tolakram]

?? Spreading out?

See the "Global + Hurricane Models" Tidbits graphic now versus the last . . . the last one had a tighter group. Similarly, the model intensity guidance graphic no longer shows some straining toward 5, but instead clustering closer to the 3/4 border again.

Some of the models included in that graph are pure crap, and while interesting to look at are otherwise meaningless. Grouped or not grouped will be a little random.

[Category5Kaiju]

Peak strength shown on HWRF over the last 4 runs.

0z 950mb
6z 940mb
12z 938mb
18z 933mb

A very scary trend indeed

Wouldn't be shocked to see a 920s mbar landfall on the next model run

[PTPatrick]

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1431442107135315971



Tomer Burg
@burgwx
The 18z run of the EPS + GEFS ensembles shows a concerning trend worth monitoring in future runs.

Ida's short-term track over the Gulf of Mexico has a more northerly component than the last run, shifting the ensemble distribution in landfall location east, closer to New Orleans.

[shah83]

00z icon getting pretty east shifty

edit to say that it's also showing a larger system, maybe a more important shift.

[IcyTundra]

00Z ICON landfall over Port Fourchon.

[BobHarlem]

Restating the above two posts, but 0z ICON shifts right quite a bit to Port Fourchon/Grand Isle. Only slightly stronger than the 18z run, though.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has it remaining around the current pressure for another 6 hours or so before taking off.

[PTPatrick]

0z GFS has it remaining around the current pressure for another 6 hours or so before taking off.

And few mb stronger at 36 hrs but otherwise very little change from 18z so far

[ElectricStorm]

IMO the GFS is underdoing the intensity. Considering the current state of Ida and the conditions ahead of it, I just don't see how this will only get to 954mb. And that's pretty concerning as 954 is nothing to sneeze at.

[PavelGaborik]

GFS actually looks slightly left.

[shah83]

00z CMC follows ICON, slightly west of 12z.

[CrazyC83]

00z CMC follows ICON, slightly west of 12z.

I think we're seeing everyone come into line in the Houma-Morgan City area then over or just west of Baton Rouge.

[InfernoFlameCat]

HWRF 00z has initialized. Lets see what it says now.

[Shell Mound]

Restating the above two posts, but 0z ICON shifts right quite a bit to Port Fourchon/Grand Isle. Only slightly stronger than the 18z run, though.
https://i.imgur.com/rSGKBCA.png

It’s actually considerably weaker and smaller than earlier runs. 12Z showed 950 mb and 18Z 953 mb, yet 00Z shows 961 mb. The circulation is much smaller, too.

[PTrackerLA]

00z HMON

[Shell Mound]

The 00Z HWRF is coming in notably weaker (944 mb) vs. 18Z (936 mb) as of 42h. LF is 940 mb vs. 18Z’s 933 mb. Structurally Ida looks slightly more sheared.

[Shell Mound]

00z HMON
https://imgur.com/EtRid6M

At 00Z HMON shifted slightly west and HWRF slightly east during LF. The strongest EC ensembles actually make LF farther W, due to a deeper TC feeling ML ridging.

[PTrackerLA]

00z HWRF bottoms out at 940mb with a slight shift east but still gains quite a bit of longitude after landfall

[PTrackerLA]

00z HMON
https://imgur.com/EtRid6M

At 00Z HMON shifted slightly west and HWRF slightly east during LF. The strongest EC ensembles actually make LF farther W, due to a deeper TC feeling ML ridging.

Interesting about the EC ensembles, most of the time it seems stronger = more right/poleward. I'm quite shocked the HMON and HWRF and even UKMET are still so far west but that coupled with the GFS inching westward and I'm not resting easy tonight in Lafayette.

[Shell Mound]