ATL: IDA - Advisories

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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:03 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
100 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 86.6W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mobile Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near
latitude 25.5 North, longitude 86.6 West. Ida is moving toward the
northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower
northward motion on Monday. A northeastward turn is forecast by
Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move
over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico through tonight.
Ida is then expected to make landfall along the coast of Louisiana
within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland
over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi later on Monday.

Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Ida is
expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it
approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Weakening is
expected after Ida makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). NOAA buoy 42003 located about 55 miles (90 km)
northeast of the eye has reported peak sustained winds of 52 mph
(83 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) within the past couple
of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday
morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the
Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding impacts and significant
riverine flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn northeast later Monday, with rainfall totals
of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern Louisiana and central
Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in
considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts.

Rainfall impacts from Ida will diminish across western Cuba today
as the storm continues to lift northward away from the island. An
additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 4
inches are possible across western Cuba through today. These
rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across
the northern Gulf coast states including parts of eastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the
Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist
across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba
through today. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern
Gulf coast later today and continue through Monday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:59 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward to the
Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 87.0 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower
northward motion on Monday. A northeastward turn is forecast by
Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move
over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Ida is then
expected to make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the
hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over
portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi later on Monday and
Monday night.

Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours
and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane
when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast on Sunday.
Weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). NOAA buoy 42003, located about 90 miles (145 km) east of
the eye, reported peak one-minuted sustained winds of 54 mph (83
km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) within the past hour or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday
morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the
Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern
Mississippi through Monday. This rainfall is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts.

Elsewhere across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern
Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley -- considerable flash and
riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will
begin to affect the Ohio Valley by mid-week, resulting in flash and
riverine flooding impacts.

Rainfall impacts from Ida will diminish across western Cuba
this evening as the storm continues to lift northward away
from the island. Additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated
maximum amounts of 4 inches possible across western Cuba through
this evening. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and
mudslides.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across
the northern Gulf coast states including parts of eastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the
Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist
across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and
will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
WTNT44 KNHC 282051
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Ida's satellite presentation has continued to improve this
afternoon, with the eye becoming more apparent in both infrared and
visible satellite imagery. The eye is surrounded by a symmetric
ring of cold cloud tops and new convection with lightning as seen
by the GOES-16 GLM sensor has been rotating around the western
portion of the eyewall within the past few hours. The upper-level
outflow has also become well established over the hurricane and
several spiral bands are noted over the northern semicircle.
Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have increased to
T5.0 and these support increasing the initial intensity to 90 kt
for this advisory. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft are scheduled to be in the hurricane within the next few
hours and should provide additional information on Ida's current
strength. Earlier aircraft and satellite wind data indicate that the
tropical-storm-force wind field has continued to expand over the
eastern semicircle and the initial wind radii have been adjusted
outward.

The hurricane appears to have begun its anticipated rapid
intensification phase. A favorable upper-level wind pattern, warm
waters along the track, and a moist atmosphere are expected to allow
for additional rapid strengthening overnight and early Sunday. This
is again supported by the majority of the intensity models, and the
NHC wind speed forecast continues to call for rapid strengthening,
bringing Ida to Category 4 status within 12 to 18 hours. An eyewall
replacement cycle could occur as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast,
so some fluctuations in intensity are possible during that time.
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Ida is forecast to
become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4, and it is likely to be
absorbed along a frontal zone by day 5.

Ida has moved a little to the right of the previous track, but the
long-term motion motion is still northwestward or 320/14 kt. The
track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Ida is expected to
continue on a northwestward heading through late Sunday as it is
steered around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge near
the southeastern United Stated coast. After landfall, Ida's forward
motion is forecast to slow when it turns northward around the
western extent of the aforementioned ridge. By Tuesday, the cyclone
should reach the southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies,
causing it to turn north-northeastward across the Lower Mississippi
and Tennessee Valleys. The track guidance has nudged slightly
eastward during the first 12-24 hours, primarily due to the more
northeastward initial position, and this has required a slight
rightward adjustment in the new official forecast at those times.
The remainder of the NHC forecast is largely unchanged from before,
and lies near various consensus models and the GFS ensemble mean.

Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the
track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread
inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through
early next week after Ida makes landfall.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama
within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening
inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible
somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast
of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane
and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local
inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning
area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.

3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the
track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana
and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These
winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday across
the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal
Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable
to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river
flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts
are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee,
and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 26.2N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 27.5N 88.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 30.5N 91.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/0600Z 34.0N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 35.7N 88.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1800Z 38.0N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:55 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 87.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near
latitude 26.6 North, longitude 87.5 West. Ida is moving toward the
northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower
northward motion on Monday. A northeastward turn is forecast by
Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will
continue moving across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico
tonight and early Sunday, and make landfall along the coast of
Louisiana within the hurricane warning area Sunday afternoon or
evening. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of
Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night.

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours and
Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it
makes landfall along the Louisiana coast on Sunday. Rapid weakening
is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 969 mb (28.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday
morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the
Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern
Mississippi through Monday. This rainfall is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts.

Elsewhere across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern
Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley -- considerable flash and
riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will
begin to affect the Ohio Valley by mid-week, resulting in flash and
riverine flooding impacts.

Rainfall impacts from Ida will diminish across western Cuba
this evening as the storm continues to lift northward away
from the island. Additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated
maximum amounts of 4 inches possible across western Cuba through
this evening. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and
mudslides.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across
the northern Gulf coast states including parts of eastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the
Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist
across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and
will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:03 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 88.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 88.0 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower
northward motion on Monday. A northeastward turn is forecast by
Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will
continue moving across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico
tonight and early Sunday, and make landfall along the coast of
Louisiana within the hurricane warning area Sunday afternoon or
evening. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of
Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 18
hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast on
Sunday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...6-9 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion
Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin later tonight or early Sunday
morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the
Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts.

Elsewhere across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern
Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley -- considerable flash and
riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will
begin to affect the Ohio Valley by mid-week, resulting in flash and
riverine flooding impacts.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across
eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and
will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters investigated Ida earlier this evening and
found that the maximum winds were still around 90 kt. Although the
peak winds appear to have leveled off for now, the minimum pressure
has continued to fall and was down to 966 mb at the last pass
through the center an hour or two ago. In fact, the pressure has
been dropping by about 2 mb per hour based on the aircraft data. In
addition, tail Doppler Radar data from the aircraft indicate that
the vortex has become more symmetric and that the inner core has
contracted from the mission earlier today. These are signals that
Ida is poised to strengthen further, and based on recent satellite
images it appears that strengthening is imminent. Flight-level and
SFMR observations also indicate that Ida's wind field has expanded
and there is some indication of a double-wind maximum. The
tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 120 n mi from
the center and hurricane-force winds up to 35 n mi from the eye.

Ida continues to move steadily to the northwest at about 14 kt.
There has been little change to the track forecast rationale. A
subtropical ridge situated near the southeast U.S. coast is expected
to shift westward during the next day or two. This feature should
continue to steer Ida northwestward toward the Louisiana coast. The
latest runs of the numerical models bring the center of Ida to
southeast or south-central Louisiana Sunday afternoon. Although
landfall is not expected for about 18 hours, impacts will begin well
before that time. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to begin
overnight, therefore, all preparations to protect life and property
must be rushed to completion. The new track forecast is just a
little to the east of the previous one through landfall. After Ida
moves inland, a turn to the north and then the northeast is expected
as the storm moves in the flow on the northwest and north sides of
the ridge.

Ida remains over waters with high oceanic heat content, and in an
atmospheric environment of low wind shear and abundant moisture.
These conditions, combined with the improved structure of the
hurricane, should allow Ida to rapidly intensify until it makes
landfall. The models remain in fairly good agreement, and the NHC
forecast holds steady and brings Ida to a dangerous major hurricane
prior to landfall. After the storm moves inland on Sunday, rapid
weakening is forecast due to a combination of land interaction,
drier air and some increase in wind shear.

Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the
track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread
inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through
early next week.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama
within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening
inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible
somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast
of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane
and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local
inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning
area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.

3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the
track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana
and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These
winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday across
the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal
Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable
to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river
flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts
are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee,
and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 27.2N 88.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 28.4N 89.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 29.9N 90.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1200Z 31.4N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z 33.1N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1200Z 34.8N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/0000Z 36.3N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0000Z 38.6N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#25 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Aug 29, 2021 5:02 am

000
WTNT64 KNHC 290951
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IDA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to 145 mph (230 km/h).

A NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported
a sustained wind of 60 mph (96 km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (118
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 89.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papi
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:09 am

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
600 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...NOAA PLANE FINDS IDA STRONGER...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with
higher gusts. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from
reconnaissance aircraft data is 935 mb (27.61 in).

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Pilot's Station East near
Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 82
mph (131 km/h) and a gust to 107 mph (172 km/h). Another NOAA
elevated C-MAN station at Southwest Pass recently reported a
sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 93 mph (150
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 89.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:31 am

TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF IDA MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana,
recently reported a sustained wind of 89 mph (143 km/h) and a wind
gust of 104 mph (167 km/h).

Within the past hour, sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a
gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported at Lakefront Airport in New
Orleans.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana,
recently reported a water level of 6.0 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Bay Waveland Yatcht
Club, Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 5.4 feet
above mean higher high water, which is an approximation of
inundation in that area.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 90.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 29, 2021 12:08 pm

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ida made
landfall along the southeastern coast of Louisiana near Port
Fourchon around 1155 AM CDT (1655 UTC). Data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data indicate that
Ida's maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 150
mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from
reconnaissance aircraft data is 930 mb (27.46 in).

Within the past hour, sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a
gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) were reported at Lakefront Airport in New
Orleans.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana,
recently reported a water level of 6.4 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club,
Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 5.5 feet above mean
higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that
area.


SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 90.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 29, 2021 3:26 pm

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
300 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...EXTREME WINDS FROM IDA SPREADING FARTHER INLAND...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...

About one hour ago, the South Lafourche Leonard Miller Jr airport
in Galliano (KGAO) reported a peak gust of 98 mph (158 km/h). More
recently, a research gauge near the airport reported sustained
winds of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust to 110 mph (178 km/h).

A Weatherflow station near Dulac just reported sustained winds of
89 mph (143 km/h) and a gust to 138 mph (222 km/h).

Another Weatherflow station in Jefferson Parrish recently reported
a gust to 79 mph (128 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 90.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Brown
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 29, 2021 4:11 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...IDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 90.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning along the coast of Louisiana from Morgan
City to Intracoastal City has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning from Cameron to Intracoastal City
Louisiana has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning west of Morgan City has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 90.6 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected overnight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward
motion by Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana
tonight. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of
western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Doppler radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so,
however Ida is forecast to remain a hurricane through late tonight
and remain a tropical storm until Monday afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). A Weatherflow station near Dulac just reported sustained
winds of 93 mph (150 km/h) and a gust to 135 mph (217 km/h). A
Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station at the South
Lafourche airport recently reported a sustained wind of 91 mph (146
km/h) and wind gust of 122 mph (196 km/h). A sustained wind of 51
mph (81 km/h) and a gust to 82 mph (131 km/h) was recently reported
at Lakefront Airport in New Orleans.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...12-16 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...8-12 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...8-12 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...5-8 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as
it moves inland over southeastern Louisiana through this evening.

Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane
Warning area over southeastern Louisiana tonight. Tropical storm
conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana
and Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the
southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley this evening into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24
inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-
threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river
flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast on Monday and track across
the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday,
producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding
along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from
the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over
southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible
farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast
through early Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

NWS Doppler radar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that Ida made landfall
around 1655 UTC along the southeastern coast of Louisiana near
Port Fourchon with estimated maximum winds of 130 kt and a minimum
pressure around 930 mb. Since that time, Ida made a second
landfall southwest of Galliano, Louisiana, and with the eyewall now
onshore weakening has begun. Based on the latest Doppler
velocities the initial wind speed has been conservatively reduced
to 115 kt for this advisory. As Ida's circulation moves farther
inland this evening and overnight a faster rate of weakening is
expected, and Ida is forecast to become a tropical depression over
Mississippi by late Monday. Although weakening is forecast,
damaging winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland
over southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi through
Monday morning. To account for this, the gust factor in the
Forecast/Advisory has been adjusted accordingly. By 72 hours, Ida
is predicted to merge with a frontal zone over the eastern United
States and become an extratropical low, and this low is forecast to
strengthen into a gale center near Atlantic Canada by the end of
the forecast period.

Radar fixes indicate that Ida's forward motion has slowed and the
initial motion estimate is 325/9 kt. The hurricane should turn
northward tonight around the western periphery of a deep-layer
ridge near the southeastern United States coast. Ida is forecast
to turn northeastward and recurve over the eastern United States as
it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The GFS is a bit faster in
ejecting the post-tropical cyclone northeastward on days 3 through
5, and the NHC forecast follows a blend of the various consensus
models and the GFS ensemble mean.

Key Messages:

1. Extremely life-threatening storm surge inundation of 9 feet or
greater above ground level will continue through early this
evening along portions of the coast between Burns Point, Louisiana,
to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside
of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible
where local inundation values may be higher.

2. Catastrophic wind damage will occur near the core of Ida as
it moves inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few
hours. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are expected
through tonight within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern
Louisiana, including metropolitan New Orleans.

3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the
track of the center of Ida into southwestern Mississippi tonight
and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree
damage and power outages.

4. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall through Monday across
the central Gulf Coast across southeast Louisiana, coastal
Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable
to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant
river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding
impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi
Valley, Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians,
and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 29.5N 90.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/0600Z 30.7N 90.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/1800Z 32.4N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/0600Z 34.0N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/1800Z 35.6N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 01/0600Z 37.1N 84.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 01/1800Z 38.6N 80.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1800Z 41.3N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1800Z 43.8N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:56 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
700 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...IDA MOVING FURTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near
latitude 29.9 North, longitude 90.5 West. Ida is moving toward the
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is
expected overnight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward
motion by Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana
tonight. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of
western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Doppler radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is a dangerous
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so,
however, Ida is forecast to remain a hurricane through late tonight
and remain a tropical storm until Monday afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) with a gust of 83
mph (133 km/h) was recently observed at New Orleans International
Airport. A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a gust of 85 mph
(137 km/h) was recently reported at Frenier Landing, Louisiana.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches).
A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station
located northeast of Raceland, Louisiana, recently reported a
minimum pressure of 945 mb (27.91).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as
it moves farther inland over southeastern Louisiana through this
evening.

Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane
Warning area over southeastern Louisiana tonight. Tropical storm
conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana
and Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the
southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley this evening into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24
inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-
threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river
flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast on Monday and track across
the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday,
producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding
along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from
the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over
southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible
farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast
through early Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:16 pm

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
900 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING FURTHER INLAND...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station located
northeast of Raceland Louisiana recently reported a sustained wind
of 67 mph (108 km/h) and a gust to 99 mph (159 km/h).

Within the last hour the New Orleans International Airport
reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) with a gust to 86
mph (138 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 90.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Andonian/Nepaul
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 29, 2021 10:08 pm

TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...IDA TURNING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 90.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 90.7 West. Ida is moving toward
the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected overnight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward
motion by Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana
tonight. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of
western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so,
however, Ida is expected to remain a hurricane for several more
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). A sustained wind of 64 mph ( 104 km/h) and a wind gust
of 90 mph (145 km/h) were reported recently reported at the New
Orleans International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves
farther inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few
hours.

Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane
Warning area over southeastern Louisiana for the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions will also spread inland over portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi through Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the
southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley this evening into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-
threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river
flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast on Monday and track across
the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday,
producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding
along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from
the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over
southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible
farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#34 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 30, 2021 4:33 am

Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

Ida is now located well inland over southwestern Mississippi and
weakening rapidly. However, Doppler velocity data from the Slidell,
Louisiana, WSR-88D radar before it went down was still indicating
velocity values near 90 kt between 4,000-4,500 ft, while the latest
velocity data from Jackson, Mississippi, have been in the 70-75 kt
range between 7,500 and 8,000 ft well east of the center. Thus, Ida
will still be capable of producing damaging wind gusts in some of
the stronger showers and thunderstorms for the next few hours. The
intensity at 0600 UTC was 65 kt, which was based on a decay rate of
about 10 kt per hour. A slightly slower decay rate of about 5 kt
per hour has been used since then, which is the basis for the 50-kt
advisory intensity at 0900 UTC. The estimated pressure of 990 mb is
based on surface observation data, especially from McComb,
Mississippi (KMCB), which has been reporting pressures near 995 mb
with 25-30 kt of wind the past couple of hours.

The initial motion estimate is now 355/07 kt. Ida should continue
moving northward today around the western periphery of a deep-layer
ridge situated over the southeastern United States. A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected by Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level
trough approaches the cyclone, with that motion continuing through
the remainder of the week. The new NHC track forecast is just a tad
to the south of the previous advisory, and lies down the middle off
the tightly packed consensus models.

Rapid weakening will continue as Ida moves farther inland over
Mississippi due to land interaction and southwesterly vertical wind
shear of more than 20 kt. However, damaging winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to continue over southeastern Louisiana and
southwestern Mississippi through through this morning. To account
for this, the gust factor in the Forecast/Advisory has been adjusted
accordingly. Ida is likely to weaken to a tropical depression this
evening. Some slight restrengthening as an extratropical storm is
possible when Ida moves over the western Atlantic in the day 4-5
period. In addition, heavy rains will spread northward and then
northeastward along the forecast track.


Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue through this
morning along portions of the coast between Grand Isle, Louisiana,
to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside
of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible
where local inundation values may be higher.

2. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will continue to spread
inland near the track of Ida's center into southwestern Mississippi
through this morning and early afternoon. These winds will likely
lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

3. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through
Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana, coastal
Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama resulting in considerable to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, considerable flooding impacts
are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley,
Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central and Southern Appalachians,
and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 31.0N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/1800Z 32.2N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/0600Z 33.7N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/1800Z 35.1N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/0600Z 36.6N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 01/1800Z 38.1N 80.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0600Z 40.1N 71.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0600Z 40.5N 67.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#35 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:59 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...IDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT SPREADING OVER MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 90.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings have been discontinued for the Louisiana coast west
of the Pearl River, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas,
and Metropolitan New Orleans.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 90.7 West. Ida is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
forecast to continue today. A faster northeastward motion is
expected to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland
over western and central Mississippi this afternoon. Ida is then
forecast to move over northeastern Mississippi tonight, and move
across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and near the central
Appalachians on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ida
is expected to become a tropical depression this afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
mainly to southeast of the center over water.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay...3-5 ft
Morgan City, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...1-3 ft
Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of
southern Mississippi and southern Alabama through early afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast
Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, Ida will produce additional
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized higher amounts
possible. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are expected. Heavy rain
combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along
the southeast coast of Louisiana with considerable flash flooding
and riverine flooding continuing farther inland.

Ida will continue to turn northeast this morning and is forecast to
track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall
totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional
4 to 8 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through
Tuesday morning.

Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated
higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday.

Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi
Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread
minor to isolated major riverine flooding is occurring or forecast
from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. Rivers
will remain elevated into next week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly
across southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western
Florida Panhandle. The threat for a few tornadoes will shift east on
Tuesday and become centered across eastern Alabama, western Georgia,
and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf
coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories - LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NHC

#36 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Aug 30, 2021 3:39 pm

000
WTNT34 KNHC 302037
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ida Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...IDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER MISSISSIPPI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD
INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 90.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 90.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15
km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected tonight through
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move
farther inland over central and northeastern Mississippi tonight.
Ida is then forecast to move across the Tennessee Valley on
Tuesday and near the central Appalachians on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next day or so.

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is
999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northern Gulf coast should
continue to subside through this evening.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast
Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, Ida will produce additional
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized higher amounts
possible. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches is expected. Heavy rain
combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along
the southeast coast of Louisiana with considerable flash flooding
and riverine flooding continuing farther inland.

Ida will continue to turn northeast this evening and is forecast to
track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall
totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional
3 to 6 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through
Tuesday morning.

Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Southern New England: 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Wednesday into Thursday.

Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi
Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread
minor to isolated major riverine flooding is occurring or forecast
from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. Rivers
will remain elevated into next week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly
across far southeast Mississippi, the southern half of Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle. The threat for a few tornadoes will
shift east on Tuesday and become centered across eastern Alabama,
western Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf
coast through this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Ida. Future information on Ida can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10
PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on
the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#37 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:49 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ida Advisory Number 20
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL092021
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI..
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 89.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and Flash Flood Watches extend from the Gulf Coast
Region across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, central and southern
Appalachians, into the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was
located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 89.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue overnight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast
Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, Ida will produce additional
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized higher amounts
possible. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches is expected. Heavy rain
combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along
the southeast coast of Louisiana with considerable flash flooding
and riverine flooding continuing farther inland.

Ida will continue to turn northeast tonight and is forecast to
track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall
totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional
3 to 6 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through
Tuesday morning.

Northern Mississippi, Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Central/Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches
with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday.

Southern New England: 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Wednesday into Thursday.

Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi
Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread
minor to isolated major riverine flooding is occurring or forecast
from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. Rivers
will remain elevated into next week.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Depression Ida, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header of ACUS44 KWBC or at the following
link:

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly
across far southeast Mississippi, the southern half of Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle. The threat for a few tornadoes will
shift east on Tuesday and become centered across eastern Alabama,
western Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bann

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 33.3N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/1200Z 34.2N 88.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/0000Z 35.7N 85.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/1200Z 37.0N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/0000Z 38.0N 79.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 02/1200Z 39.0N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/0000Z 39.6N 72.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#38 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 31, 2021 4:51 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ida Advisory Number 21
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL092021
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI..
...CONSIDERABLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
FROM THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 88.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and Flash Flood Watches extend from the Gulf Coast
Region across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, central and southern
Appalachians, into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 88.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
Ida is expected to continue gradually accelerating to the northeast
over the next couple days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ida will track across the Middle
Tennessee Valley, Lower Ohio Valley, and northern Mid-Atlantic
through Thursday, producing the following rainfall totals:

Portions of the Southeast, including the western Florida panhandle,
eastern and northern Alabama, and northern Georgia: An additional 1
to 3 inches through Wednesday morning.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central and Southern
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated
higher amounts through Thursday morning.

Southern New England: 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Wednesday into Thursday.

Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Middle Tennessee
Valley, Ohio Valley, Central and Southern Appalachians, into
the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, and is most likely from
northern West Virginia and western Maryland into southern
Pennsylvania. Widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding
is occurring or forecast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far
western Alabama, Allegheny Mountains, and Mid-Atlantic. Rivers will
remain elevated into next week.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Depression Ida, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header of ACUS44 KWBC or at the following
link:

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

TORNADOES: The threat for a few tornadoes will be centered today
across eastern Alabama, western Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.
On Wednesday, the threat will shift into portions of the Mid
Atlantic.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Lamers

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 34.1N 88.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/1800Z 35.0N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/0600Z 36.3N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/1800Z 37.7N 81.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/0600Z 38.8N 77.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 02/1800Z 39.5N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/0600Z 40.4N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#39 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 31, 2021 4:17 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ida Advisory Number 23
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL092021
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS OF POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 86.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and Flash Flood Watches extend from the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys across the central and southern Appalachians, into the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was
located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 86.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and
this motion is expected to gradually accelerate through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours as Ida
becomes extratropical and moves offshore by early Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ida will produce the following
rainfall totals:

Portions of the Southeast, including the western Florida panhandle,
eastern and northern Alabama, and northern Georgia: An additional 1
to 3 inches through Wednesday morning.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central and Southern
Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts through
Wednesday morning.

Mid Atlantic to Southern New England: 3 to 8 inches with isolated
higher amounts, Wednesday into Thursday.

Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Middle Tennessee
Valley, Ohio Valley, Central and Southern Appalachians.

Significant and life-threatening flash flooding is possible from the
Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, especially across highly
urbanized metropolitan areas and areas of steep terrain. Widespread
moderate and major river flooding impacts are forecast from northern
West Virginia and western Maryland into southern Pennsylvania and
New Jersey, particularly in the Monongahela, Potomac, Susquehanna,
Delaware, and lower Hudson river basins.

Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is occurring or
forecast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama.
Rivers will remain elevated into next week.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Depression Ida, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header of ACUS44 KWBC or at the following
link:

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

TORNADOES: The threat for an isolated tornado will continue this
evening across portions of the Southeast, shifting towards portions
of the Mid Atlantic overnight. On Wednesday, several tornadoes are
probable across portions of the Mid Atlantic, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Churchill

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 35.5N 86.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
12H 01/0600Z 37.0N 83.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/1800Z 39.0N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 02/0600Z 40.4N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1800Z 43.8N 67.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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Re: ATL: IDA - Advisories

#40 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:56 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ida Advisory Number 24
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL092021
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS OF POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...REMNANTS OF IDA WILL ALSO BRING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERAL
TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 84.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NE OF HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and Flash Flood Watches extend across the eastern Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys, southern and central Appalachians, the
northern Mid-Atlantic region, and into southern New York
and southern New England.

A tornado watch is in effect until 3 am EDT Wednesday across
extreme north-central North Carolina into western and central
Virginia.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was
located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 84.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h)
and this motion is expected to gradually accelerate through
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours as Ida
becomes extratropical and moves offshore on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ida will produce the following
rainfall totals:

Portions of the Southeast, including the western Florida panhandle,
eastern and northern Alabama, and northern Georgia: An additional 1
to 3 inches through Wednesday morning.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central and Southern
Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts through
Wednesday morning.

Mid Atlantic to Southern New England: 3 to 8 inches with isolated
higher amounts, Wednesday into Thursday.

Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Middle Tennessee
Valley, Ohio Valley, Central and Southern Appalachians.

Significant and life-threatening flash flooding is possible from the
Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, especially across highly
urbanized metropolitan areas and areas of steep terrain. Widespread
moderate and major river flooding impacts are forecast from northern
West Virginia and western Maryland into southern Pennsylvania and
New Jersey, particularly in the Monongahela, Potomac, Susquehanna,
Delaware, and lower Hudson river basins.

Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is occurring or
forecast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama.
Rivers will remain elevated into next week.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Depression Ida, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header of ACUS44 KWBC or at the following
link:

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

TORNADOES: The threat for an isolated tornado will continue
tonight across portions of the Mid Atlantic overnight. On
Wednesday, several tornadoes are probable across portions of the
Mid Atlantic, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Hurley

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 36.2N 84.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 01/1200Z 37.5N 81.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 02/0000Z 39.6N 76.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 02/1200Z 42.1N 71.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/0000Z 44.7N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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