ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:06 pm

AL, 90, 2021083018, , BEST, 0, 87N, 153W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026, SPAWNINVEST, al782021 to al902021



https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:13 pm

Oh yeah... I guess I was too preoccupied with Ida to wonder when this would be declared an invest. 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#3 Postby Teban54 » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:21 pm

Looks like it will be our first MDR biggie this year. And based on current indicators, it may not be the only one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#4 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:22 pm

Gonna be a loooong thread. Hope you guys aren’t too hurricane-fatigued yet…
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#5 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:32 pm

Is it just me, or am I reminded of a certain "I" storm from 2017 that formed in a similar place at a similar time?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:44 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#7 Postby Michele B » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:45 pm

You gotta admit, they are pretty GOOD if they can look at the POTENTIAL for something that looks like NOTHING to turn into something down the line!

Same for the one in the Eastern Caribbean. Talk is that is going to be the next N. Gulf problem by NEXT WEEK-END. God, I hope not. THose folks don't need that on top of Ida....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:45 pm

GFS and ECMWF do safely imply a recurve at least for now and with the East Coast troughing, it’s hard to not see this recurving.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#9 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:50 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:GFS and ECMWF do safely imply a recurve at least for now and with the East Coast troughing, it’s hard to not see this recurving.
Well it seems that way but a recurve isn't set in stone and the models tend to underestimate the ridge, however, the residents of New Orleans will tell you sometimes the ridge is overdone, they were surprised yesterday. The bottom line is a few miles makes all the difference.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#10 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:51 pm

At the moment, I'd say 90L is strongly favored to recurve, based on the synoptic pattern. Should become a hurricane and potentially even a major. But after what we saw with Florence, I'm not going to say it is a safe bet to recurve yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#11 Postby ouragans » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:54 pm

Invest 90L
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 30, 2021:

Location: 8.7°N 15.3°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#12 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Aug 30, 2021 2:08 pm

While it probably will recurve, this is still something to monitor. I remember several tropical waves that when they were first picked up by the models, it was looking like a recurve but then they end up becoming a US threat (Florence is one example).

Now that it is primetime, this could be a big ACE maker. Already getting organized it sounds like.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#13 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 30, 2021 2:13 pm

This should be fun. Hopefully it stays out to sea and becomes a nice Cat 4 MDR long-tracker that produces a ton of ACE like Lorenzo and Teddy, and doesn’t find a way to impact people like those two.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#14 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 30, 2021 2:40 pm

Good potential if it doesn't recurve as early as the GFS. It might be a potential threat for Bermuda down the line.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#15 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Aug 30, 2021 2:44 pm

Yeah as long as it recurves I'll be rooting for it. Hopefully it puts on a show
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#16 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Aug 30, 2021 2:45 pm

GFS is recurving too early imo but I still think this will curve out to sea and possibly threaten Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#17 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 30, 2021 3:18 pm

Invest 90L
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 30, 2021:

Location: 8.7°N 15.3°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm


Image

Not a big factor at this point, but the 2pm Red X is near 10N, so 90L is starting at a lower latitude. Plenty of time to see how it all plays out, hopefully OTS because this could be a big hurricane.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#18 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Aug 30, 2021 3:28 pm

From Spongebob to Veggie Tales to the 3 Stooges, a Cat 4 Larry sure will unleash a storm of memes on social media.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#19 Postby tiger_deF » Mon Aug 30, 2021 3:30 pm

Pretty confident in a recurve, but still needs to be watched closely. If Larry forms relatively soon, by the time it reaches the West Atlantic it will be quite a large storm in terms of overall fetch.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#20 Postby otowntiger » Mon Aug 30, 2021 3:32 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:GFS and ECMWF do safely imply a recurve at least for now and with the East Coast troughing, it’s hard to not see this recurving.
yes that is the most likely outcome. I say that not because I've studied the patterns and know the synoptic set up as being modeled. I say that because more storms forming in this area re-curve well out to sea in all of recorded hurricane history than those that don't. Just the law of averages. And of course even more so if the 'modeled set-up' is indicating that. :wink: 8-)
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