ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

What a mess. Massive discrepancies between FL and SFMR winds, the LLC and eye being offset from each other, and so many double wind maxima. Unless recon can find some more consistent 90-100 kt FL winds in other quadrants, Larry is now just a Cat 1.

Strangely, the pressure has remained in the mid 960s this entire time. I’m guessing baroclinic forces are in effect.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[sikkar]

Interesting.

"In fact, the plane was
unable to identify an eye with Larry, and the highest flight-level
and SFMR winds were found nearly 80 nautical miles away from the
center. Moreover, there remains a large discrepancy between the peak
700-mb flight level winds (108-kt) versus the much lower SFMR peak
values (67-kt)"

[Sciencerocks]

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1435947377656049675




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1435948679979016193




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1435950756646072320

[cheezyWXguy]

Larry looks to be trying to put himself back together a bit this morning. There’s even a -80c burst on the nw side

[kevin]

Larry is looking surpringly healthy right now. ADT also went back up to 5.5 and supports 951mb/102kt.

[zzh]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/thumbnails/tc_thumbs/20210909.1025.gpm.89pct89h89v.12L.LARRY.85kts.969mb.30.2N.60.8W.050pc.jpg

[tolakram]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/thumbnails/tc_thumbs/20210909.1025.gpm.89pct89h89v.12L.LARRY.85kts.969mb.30.2N.60.8W.050pc.jpg

No direct links to non image hosting sites.

Here's that image. Larry and the lack of an eyewall that lasts will be something to study, that's for sure.

[kevin]

Are there still any recon plans for Larry? Raw T# now went up to 6.0 which would be 115 kt if it holds. The mean cloudtops are also cooling, from -55C two hours ago to -65C now. Besides that the eye is also warming rapidly, from -40C two hours ago to a whopping +0.2C now. Considering Larry was only 85 kt in the last advisory I think ADT is a bit overenthusiastic at the moment, but without recon you never know. Larry is in a pretty favorable environment right now, only 10 kt of shear and cat 4 MPI. Will be interesting to see what the NHC will do at the next advisory, maybe a bump from 85 to 90 - 95 kt and then wait to see if Larry's structural improvement continues for the next few hours.

Edit: looks like the NHC even went for a downgrade to 80 kt. I don't have time to read the discussion right now but I'm sure they have good reasons. I guess Larry's winds are just really bad at making it down to the surface.

[Sciencerocks]

[jconsor]

Larry's intensity was likely lower than NHC estimates (which they acknowledged as being generous) late yesterday into early today, based on SFMR and dropsondes from recon.
Good chance IMHO that it gets better organized next 36 hours and is a cat 2 until just before Newfoundland landfall.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1436003250197704707

[Kazmit]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5620/5eJWQ4.gif

It's chugging along now, already north of Bermuda.

[ColdMiser123]

Could be a high impacting event for SE Newfoundland, St. John's alone has nearly double the population Bermuda does, so quite a few people will be seeing hazardous weather from this. Winds just above the surface will be incredibly strong (>110 kt at 925 mb) due to baroclinic interaction, but how much makes it to the surface is still an uncertainty factor. Should be enough to the point where hurricane warnings will be necessary.

[Sciencerocks]

[supercane4867]

Hurricane warning issued for SE Newfoundland where a hurricane landfall is increasingly likely. First named storm to make landfall on the island at tropical status since Maria 2011.

[Teban54]

Hurricane warning issued for SE Newfoundland where a hurricane landfall is increasingly likely. First named storm to make landfall on the island at tropical status since Maria 2011.

So Larry didn't go completely OTS, after all.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Hurricane warning issued for SE Newfoundland where a hurricane landfall is increasingly likely. First named storm to make landfall on the island at tropical status since Maria 2011.

So Larry didn't go completely OTS, after all.

I was even seeing places like accuweather just completely ignoring the Canada threat for who knows what reason.

[PavelGaborik]

Larry appears to be having rough evening