ATL: LARRY - Models

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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#181 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Sep 02, 2021 9:44 pm

Also models seem to be trending stronger.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#182 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Sep 02, 2021 9:59 pm

That troughy pattern over west Atlantic isn’t rock solid.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#183 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 02, 2021 11:14 pm

0Z UKMET is again down to 922-3 mb and passes only 150 miles east of Bermuda then:

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 36.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.09.2021 0 13.9N 36.8W 988 50
1200UTC 03.09.2021 12 14.5N 40.3W 986 49
0000UTC 04.09.2021 24 15.5N 43.1W 983 54
1200UTC 04.09.2021 36 16.6N 45.8W 979 60
0000UTC 05.09.2021 48 18.0N 47.8W 972 64
1200UTC 05.09.2021 60 19.4N 49.9W 971 66
0000UTC 06.09.2021 72 20.8N 52.0W 961 72
1200UTC 06.09.2021 84 22.0N 53.8W 950 84
0000UTC 07.09.2021 96 23.3N 55.5W 936 100
1200UTC 07.09.2021 108 25.2N 57.6W 933 97
0000UTC 08.09.2021 120 27.2N 59.5W 927 103
1200UTC 08.09.2021 132 29.5N 61.4W 922 112
0000UTC 09.09.2021 144 32.5N 62.5W 923 111
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#184 Postby Kohlecane » Fri Sep 03, 2021 7:23 am

Do as you will with this, and I hope I'm capturing the correct correlation, please let me know if there is a better dynamic for analysis, but I always enjoy comparing UL/ML imagery to model runs and correlate that with NHC updates(speed/strength/direction)
Image

Also here is a longer loop of the MLWV over the last few days..https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... =undefined
and you can see getting towards the end that ULL building in and pushing NE from 25-30N/70-65W is that what will influence a more WNW/NNW pull, on the contrary I feel that watching this loop it is possible to see a cut off sooner rather than later judging by the speed that ridge is moving over the S IMAO obviously :lol:
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#185 Postby MJGarrison » Fri Sep 03, 2021 8:11 am

Kohlecane wrote:Do as you will with this, and I hope I'm capturing the correct correlation, please let me know if there is a better dynamic for analysis, but I always enjoy comparing UL/ML imagery to model runs and correlate that with NHC updates(speed/strength/direction)
Image

Also here is a longer loop of the MLWV over the last few days..https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... =undefined
and you can see getting towards the end that ULL building in and pushing NE from 25-30N/70-65W is that what will influence a more WNW/NNW pull, on the contrary I feel that watching this loop it is possible to see a cut off sooner rather than later judging by the speed that ridge is moving over the S IMAO obviously :lol:

I think for a more apples to apples comparison you might look at the gfs mid level humidity chart. The satellite band you have selected is mid level water vapor.


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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#186 Postby RevanTheJedi96 » Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:23 pm

How do you guys feel about Larry modeling? I think that the Westward shifts are stabilizing and all models keep showing a strong trough taking Larry OTS.

Unless this trough gets modeled differently I have a very hard time seeing Larry being anything more than a Bermuda/Atlantic Canada threat worst case scenario.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#187 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:41 pm

12Z UKMET: strongest yet (920mb!!) 250 miles E of Bermuda:

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 40.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2021 0 14.5N 40.1W 982 55
0000UTC 04.09.2021 12 15.5N 42.7W 981 58
1200UTC 04.09.2021 24 16.7N 45.4W 982 55
0000UTC 05.09.2021 36 17.8N 47.6W 980 59
1200UTC 05.09.2021 48 19.4N 49.7W 976 63
0000UTC 06.09.2021 60 21.1N 51.5W 970 67
1200UTC 06.09.2021 72 22.4N 53.5W 960 73
0000UTC 07.09.2021 84 23.6N 55.1W 949 88
1200UTC 07.09.2021 96 25.0N 56.9W 946 94
0000UTC 08.09.2021 108 26.6N 58.3W 928 105
1200UTC 08.09.2021 120 28.8N 59.7W 927 105
0000UTC 09.09.2021 132 31.4N 60.7W 920 110
1200UTC 09.09.2021 144 34.4N 61.1W 922 107
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#188 Postby Stormybajan » Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:29 pm

12z euro out to 144 hours looking like its heading straight for Bermuda ...
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#189 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:44 pm

12z Euro is stronger than the 12z GFS, think about that one . . .
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#190 Postby kevin » Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:48 pm

Iceresistance wrote:12z Euro is stronger than the 12z GFS, think about that one . . .


As the saying goes "When GFS bombs out wait for the next model run, it's probably gonna be okay. When the euro bombs out pack your stuff and leave right away". (just joking of course ;))
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#191 Postby Zonacane » Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:51 pm

Zonacane wrote:Look forward to coming into this thread Friday with Larry modeled to be in the Hebert Box

Not quite yet, but very close.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#192 Postby PavelGaborik » Fri Sep 03, 2021 6:08 pm

Bermuda definitely needs to keep a close eye on Larry.

Nova Scotia is looking less likely down the line, Newfoundland could still potentially receive a strike.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#193 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Sep 03, 2021 10:46 pm

Did anyone see the 12z Euro at 240 hours?

It has Larry in approaching Europe as some type of HUGE hybrid storm at 958 mb.
Is that really possible?
No other models show anything like that.

Seems to turn into this massive cyclone, hope thats some model glitch.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#194 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:40 pm

Latest UK has caught my eye but what are the chances really?
Image
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#195 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 04, 2021 3:18 pm

Wow very quiet model thread which makes sense given the model tracks. This post is just the 5th post in 24 hours in this thread. The Euro says “adios” with a fish track:

Image
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#196 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 04, 2021 3:32 pm

Pretty tightly clustered:

Image
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#197 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Sep 04, 2021 3:33 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:Did anyone see the 12z Euro at 240 hours?

It has Larry in approaching Europe as some type of HUGE hybrid storm at 958 mb.
Is that really possible?
No other models show anything like that.

Seems to turn into this massive cyclone, hope thats some model glitch.


Quite rare, but not impossible. The lowest recorded pressure in Ireland in September is 957mb, actually. Although usually occuring later in the year, some of the fall/winter storms up here dip into the 950s or even lower before moving over continental Europe
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#198 Postby shaneomac » Sat Sep 04, 2021 7:32 pm

The 12z nav gem is well pretty crazy with pressure and looks like landfall in Nova Scotia , obviously its a outlier
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#199 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 05, 2021 4:02 pm

12Z UKMET: 915 mb just 100 miles east of Bermuda!

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 49.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2021 0 19.0N 49.5W 933 106
0000UTC 06.09.2021 12 20.5N 51.4W 942 95
1200UTC 06.09.2021 24 21.7N 53.2W 931 106
0000UTC 07.09.2021 36 22.8N 54.6W 929 110
1200UTC 07.09.2021 48 24.1N 56.3W 919 113
0000UTC 08.09.2021 60 25.8N 57.7W 916 116
1200UTC 08.09.2021 72 27.5N 59.7W 918 118
0000UTC 09.09.2021 84 29.5N 61.7W 918 114
1200UTC 09.09.2021 96 31.9N 63.3W 915 116
0000UTC 10.09.2021 108 35.7N 63.3W 925 105
1200UTC 10.09.2021 120 40.8N 61.2W 929 105
0000UTC 11.09.2021 132 46.5N 55.5W 943 85
1200UTC 11.09.2021 144 52.3N 48.3W 971 46
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Models

#200 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:29 pm

Newfoundland is still at risk of a landfall so keep an eye if you're there

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