ATL: LARRY - Models

[weeniepatrol]

[kevin]

Yeah, one or two SW shifts weren't that bad, but now we're at the point that I'm really getting concerned. Euro 12z almost gets to Bermuda (I think it perhaps even makes landfall there this run but it's difficult to see) and I wouldn't be surprised if we see more W shifts in the next few runs. Also 944 mbar .

[AutoPenalti]

I'm not too concerned about it at this time, honestly, it's just interesting to see that models have had issues with how strong ridging actually is, and a part of that is likely no actual sampling in the middle of the ocean... Bermuda might not get so lucky though...

[otowntiger]

Yeah, one or two SW shifts weren't that bad, but now we're at the point that I'm really getting concerned. Euro 12z almost gets to Bermuda (I think it perhaps even makes landfall there this run but it's difficult to see) and I wouldn't be surprised if we see more W shifts in the next few runs. Also 944 mbar .

https://imgur.com/RH6p7eD

Hello Bermuda.

[kevin]

Also look at this intensity guidance. And then also take into account that the initialization may very well be 25 kt too weak if Larry is already a hurricane, which could be a reasonable assumption based on IR and Dvorak.

[cycloneye]

The 18z run. Cat 4 is going to be the new peak by NHC.

[Woofde]

Interestingly, a few CMC ensemble members actually take this into the South Eastern US now. Most still go out to sea, but there is a possibility, especially if the westward trend continues.

[Category5Kaiju]

Unlike Ida, Larry will be a classic Cape Verde monster with plenty of time over open ocean, and if these models are to be believed then I personally would not be shocked if he attains Category 5 status at one point. I mean, Isabel, Ivan, Irma, Lorenzo, and Hugo did the same

[Blown Away]

Yeah, one or two SW shifts weren't that bad, but now we're at the point that I'm really getting concerned. Euro 12z almost gets to Bermuda (I think it perhaps even makes landfall there this run but it's difficult to see) and I wouldn't be surprised if we see more W shifts in the next few runs. Also 944 mbar .

https://imgur.com/RH6p7eD

Yeah, but all models and nearly every ensemble suggests no hint of impact on NE Caribbean or CONUS. Bermuda & Maritimes based only on the modeling data we have are the only areas to be concerned about. Obviously that can change going out multiple days. No hint of that West bend late in the forecast, that’s when you get concerned.

[sma10]

I'm not too concerned about it at this time, honestly, it's just interesting to see that models have had issues with how strong ridging actually is, and a part of that is likely no actual sampling in the middle of the ocean... Bermuda might not get so lucky though...

Yes, some concern for Bermuda, but not overly worried about the Carib Islands or US.

I have seen these types of model shifts many, many times, and have noticed one specific pattern: so long as the general shape of the modeled path remains smoothly parabolic, the storm will curve safely away. It may curve a little later than originally thought (and indeed may smack into Bermuda while it's curving) but the path is fairly reliable.

The warning sign to look for is a significant leftward bend. Now THAT is serious trouble, and something to keep a look out for.

[Bizzles]

I was still a few months from being born, but could this be analog to Gloria '85 track-wise just a few hundred miles east (we hope)?

[Hurricaneman]

I'm not too concerned about it at this time, honestly, it's just interesting to see that models have had issues with how strong ridging actually is, and a part of that is likely no actual sampling in the middle of the ocean... Bermuda might not get so lucky though...

Yes, some concern for Bermuda, but not overly worried about the Carib Islands or US.

I have seen these types of model shifts many, many times, and have noticed one specific pattern: so long as the general shape of the modeled path remains smoothly parabolic, the storm will curve safely away. It may curve a little later than originally thought (and indeed may smack into Bermuda while it's curving) but the path is fairly reliable.

The warning sign to look for is a significant leftward bend. Now THAT is serious trouble, and something to keep a look out for.

There are a few ensembles on the Euro and GFS that do that

[sma10]

I'm not too concerned about it at this time, honestly, it's just interesting to see that models have had issues with how strong ridging actually is, and a part of that is likely no actual sampling in the middle of the ocean... Bermuda might not get so lucky though...

Yes, some concern for Bermuda, but not overly worried about the Carib Islands or US.

I have seen these types of model shifts many, many times, and have noticed one specific pattern: so long as the general shape of the modeled path remains smoothly parabolic, the storm will curve safely away. It may curve a little later than originally thought (and indeed may smack into Bermuda while it's curving) but the path is fairly reliable.

The warning sign to look for is a significant leftward bend. Now THAT is serious trouble, and something to keep a look out for.

There are a few ensembles on the Euro and GFS that do that

Yup. And that is what I look for in the ensembles. To see if more and more members start to sniff a trend. Right now the pct is very low.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1433156738316898306

[RL3AO]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1433156738316898306

0Z



12Z



Most of the ensembles are going NW at 120 hrs vs NNW. Threat to Bermuda certainly increasing.

[floridasun78]

are models not picking up with high to his north maybe stronger and forecast because we seen more stift to west past few runs???

[RL3AO]

are models not picking up with high to his north maybe stronger and forecast because we seen more stift to west past few runs???

The main change I see in the GFS over the next 72 hours is the storm being further west (moving faster) then earlier runs. That gets it under the ridge quicker and keeps it further west and south.

[floridasun78]

are models not picking up with high to his north maybe stronger and forecast because we seen more stift to west past few runs???

The main change I see in the GFS over the next 72 hours is the storm being further west (moving faster) then earlier runs. That gets it under the ridge quicker and keeps it further west and south.

you right because nhc keep moving track more west

[Kohlecane]

Stronger ridging on the 18z hmmm
This is going to come down to that Trough and how deep it digs, I am still saying OTS but like others have said chances of Bermuda impact are increasing sig. as these runs goe, and unless we see some pull backs E or N, I will be keeping an eye on this close being in SC and family all up the E seaboard I mean it is Peak time so everyone should be tracking closer regardless, we have seen some interesting set-ups this season thus far

[Blown Away]

18z GFS is @1 degree S and 5 degrees W compared to 06z this morning. Fortunately no matter how much SW adjustment, it doesn’t appear NE Caribbean is in play at this point.